Prediction of indications for valve replacement among asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic patients with chronic aortic regurgitation and normal left ventricular performance

Optimal criteria for valve replacement are unclear in asymptomatic/minimally symptomatic patients with aortic regurgitation (AR) and normal left ventricular (LV) performance at rest. Moreover, previous studies have not assessed the prognostic capacity of load-adjusted LV performance ("contractility") variables, which may be fundamentally related to clinical state. Therefore, 18 years ago, we set out to test prospectively the hypothesis that objective noninvasive measures of LV size and performance and, specifically, of load-adjusted variables, assessed at rest and during exercise (ex), could predict the development of currently accepted indications for operation for AR. Clinical variables and measures of LV size, performance, and end-systolic wall stress (ESS) were assessed annually in 104 patients by radionuclide cineangiography at rest and maximal ex and by echocardiography at rest; ESS was derived during ex. During an average 7.3-year follow-up among patients who had not been operated on, 39 of 104 patients either died suddenly (n = 4) or developed operable symptoms only (n = 22) or subnormal LV performance with or without symptoms (n = 13) (progression rate=6.2%/y). By multivariate Cox model analysis, change (delta) in LV ejection fraction (EF) from rest to ex, normalized for deltaESS from rest to ex (deltaLVEF-deltaESS index), was the strongest predictor of progression to any end point or to sudden cardiac death alone. Unadjusted deltaLVEF was almost as efficient. Symptom status modified prediction on the basis of the deltaLVEF-deltaESS index. The population tercile at highest risk by deltaLVEF-deltaESS progressed to end points at a rate of 13.3%/y, and the lowest-risk tercile progressed at 1.8%/y. Currently accepted symptom and LV performance indications for valve replacement, as well as sudden cardiac death, can be predicted in asymptomatic/minimally symptomatic patients with AR by load-adjusted deltaLVEF-deltaESS index, which includes data obtained during exercise.