Growth of Screen‐Detected Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms in Men: A Bayesian Analysis

There is considerable interindividual variability in the growth of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), but an individual's growth observations, risk factors, and biomarkers could potentially be used to tailor surveillance. To assess the potential for tailoring surveillance, this study determined the accuracy of individualized predictions of AAA size at the next surveillance observation. A hierarchical Bayesian model was fitted to a total of 1,732 serial ultrasound measurements from 299 men in whom ultrasound screening identified an AAA. The data were best described by a nonlinear model with a constant first derivative of the AAA growth rate with size. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting whether an AAA was ≥40 or ≥50 mm at the next observation were 0.922 and 0.979, respectively, and the median root mean squared error was 2.52 mm. These values were nearly identical for models with or without plasma D‐dimer effects. CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology (2012) 1, e12; doi:10.1038/psp.2012.13; advance online publication 24 October 2012