A successful real-time forecast of the 2010–11 La Niña event

A successful real-time forecast of the 2010–11 La Niña event

During 2010–11, a La Niña condition prevailed in the tropical Pacific. An intermediate coupled model (ICM) is used to demonstrate a real-time forecast of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution during the event. One of the ICM's unique features is an empirical parameterization of the temperatur...

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Veröffentlicht in:Scientific reports 2013-01, Vol.3 (1), p.1108
Hauptverfasser: Zhang, Rong-Hua, Zheng, Fei, Zhu, Jiang, Wang, Zhanggui
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704/106/35/823
704/106/694/2739
704/106/829/2737
704/172
Feedback
Humanities and Social Sciences
La Nina
multidisciplinary
Ocean currents
Science
Sea surface temperature
Subsurface water
Temperature effects
Thermocline
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creator Zhang, Rong-Hua
Zheng, Fei
Zhu, Jiang
Wang, Zhanggui
description During 2010–11, a La Niña condition prevailed in the tropical Pacific. An intermediate coupled model (ICM) is used to demonstrate a real-time forecast of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution during the event. One of the ICM's unique features is an empirical parameterization of the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (T e ). This model provided a good prediction, particularly of the "double dip" evolution of SST in 2011 that followed the La Niña event peak in October 2010. Thermocline feedback, explicitly represented by the relationship between T e and sea level in the ICM, is a crucial factor affecting the second cooling in 2011. Large negative T e anomalies were observed to persist in the central equatorial domain during 2010–11, inducing a cold SST anomaly to the east during July–August 2011 and leading to the development of a La Niña condition thereafter.
doi_str_mv 10.1038/srep01108
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subjects 704/106/35/823
704/106/694/2739
704/106/829/2737
704/172
Feedback
Humanities and Social Sciences
La Nina
multidisciplinary
Ocean currents
Science
Sea surface temperature
Subsurface water
Temperature effects
Thermocline
title A successful real-time forecast of the 2010–11 La Niña event
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