Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?
The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Af...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B. Biological sciences 2010-09, Vol.365 (1554), p.2779-2791 |
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| container_title | Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B. Biological sciences |
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| creator | Lutz, Wolfgang KC, Samir |
| description | The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1098/rstb.2010.0133 |
| format | Article |
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Series B. Biological sciences</title><addtitle>Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B</addtitle><addtitle>Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B</addtitle><description>The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.</description><subject>Age</subject><subject>Age Structure</subject><subject>Aging</subject><subject>Censuses</subject><subject>Demography</subject><subject>Developing Countries</subject><subject>Dimensions Of Population Projections</subject><subject>Educational attainment</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>International cooperation</subject><subject>Level Of Educational Attainment</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Population Decline</subject><subject>Population Dynamics</subject><subject>Population education</subject><subject>Population Growth</subject><subject>Population Increase</subject><subject>Population size</subject><subject>Review</subject><subject>Socioeconomic Factors</subject><subject>United Nations</subject><subject>World Population</subject><issn>0962-8436</issn><issn>1471-2970</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2010</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkstv0zAcxyMEYmVw5QbyjVOKHb85gGA8pUlAGVwtx3E2t2lcbGel_PU4ZFSdEOzkx_fze_nroniI4BxBKZ6GmOp5BfMRIoxvFTNEOCoryeHtYgYlq0pBMDsq7sW4hBBKysnd4qiCPNOCzIrVa7e2fXS-j8C34Lzzte7Axm-GTqd8CzbBL60Zt_EZ2F7oBBoPthaser8FuvZDAu2QhmAPg1KwfROB7hsQUxjMqMcX94s7re6ifXC1Hhdf3745O3lfnn589-Hk5WlpeIVTKVoNsdSCNXVLEakZZ4xV0AosrUVQGyS0FTXHVWMgwVIYxgQ0Qou6tpRBfFw8n_JuhnptG2P7FHSnNsGtddgpr526rvTuQp37S1VJTBGiOcGTqwTBfx9sTGrtorFdp3vrh6hkhZHEjJAbSU4pwlISeDNJRDaHwyqT84k0wccYbLvvHEE1mq5G09VouhpNzwGPD-fd439czsBqAoLf5Yf3xtm0U0s_hD4f1eLL2atLzKhDlBIFBUYwG0Gw-uk2U60sKhfjYNVv5Hr9v9vB_6v2zyEeTVHLmHw4nIHm3yyyXk66i8n-2Os6rBTjmFP1TRD1iS0-kwUTiuBfoFH3kg</recordid><startdate>20100927</startdate><enddate>20100927</enddate><creator>Lutz, Wolfgang</creator><creator>KC, Samir</creator><general>The Royal Society</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20100927</creationdate><title>Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?</title><author>Lutz, Wolfgang ; KC, Samir</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c723t-8fa039a86dbf514b6766620e839ee10ac18ae8b732dc04398c6680c8a8bbe5603</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2010</creationdate><topic>Age</topic><topic>Age Structure</topic><topic>Aging</topic><topic>Censuses</topic><topic>Demography</topic><topic>Developing Countries</topic><topic>Dimensions Of Population Projections</topic><topic>Educational attainment</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>International cooperation</topic><topic>Level Of Educational Attainment</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Population Decline</topic><topic>Population Dynamics</topic><topic>Population education</topic><topic>Population Growth</topic><topic>Population Increase</topic><topic>Population size</topic><topic>Review</topic><topic>Socioeconomic Factors</topic><topic>United Nations</topic><topic>World Population</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Lutz, Wolfgang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>KC, Samir</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. 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| ispartof | Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B. Biological sciences, 2010-09, Vol.365 (1554), p.2779-2791 |
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| source | Jstor Complete Legacy; MEDLINE; PubMed Central |
| subjects | Age Age Structure Aging Censuses Demography Developing Countries Dimensions Of Population Projections Educational attainment Forecasting Humans International cooperation Level Of Educational Attainment Mortality Population Decline Population Dynamics Population education Population Growth Population Increase Population size Review Socioeconomic Factors United Nations World Population |
| title | Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures? |
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