Validation of a predictive model for identifying an increased risk for thromboembolism in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia: results of a multicenter cohort study

Among risk factors for developing thromboembolism (VTE) in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia were Escherichia coli asparaginase, concomitant steroid use, presence of central venous lines, and thrombophilic abnormalities. Developing a predictive model for determining children at increased ri...

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Veröffentlicht in:Blood 2010-06, Vol.115 (24), p.4999-5004
Hauptverfasser: Mitchell, Lesley, Lambers, Moritz, Flege, Silke, Kenet, Gili, Li-Thiao-Te, Valerie, Holzhauer, Susanne, Bidlingmaier, Christoph, Frühwald, Michael C., Heller, Christine, Schmidt, Wolfgang, Pautard, Brigitte, Nowak-Göttl, Ulrike
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container_issue 24
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container_title Blood
container_volume 115
creator Mitchell, Lesley
Lambers, Moritz
Flege, Silke
Kenet, Gili
Li-Thiao-Te, Valerie
Holzhauer, Susanne
Bidlingmaier, Christoph
Frühwald, Michael C.
Heller, Christine
Schmidt, Wolfgang
Pautard, Brigitte
Nowak-Göttl, Ulrike
description Among risk factors for developing thromboembolism (VTE) in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia were Escherichia coli asparaginase, concomitant steroid use, presence of central venous lines, and thrombophilic abnormalities. Developing a predictive model for determining children at increased risk would be beneficial in targeting interventional studies to high-risk groups (HRGs). Predictive variables were incorporated into a risk assessment model, which was evaluated in 456 children and then validated in 339 patients. VTE risk by score was no greater than 2.5 for low-risk group (LRG) and greater than 2.5 for HRG. VTE rates at 3.5 months (validation cohorts) were 2.5% in LRG and 64.7% in HRG. In multivariate analysis adjusted for age, duration of asparaginase administration, enoxaparin prophylaxis, and T-immunophenotype, the HRG was significantly associated with VTE compared with the LRG (hazard/95% confidence interval [CI], 8.22/1.85-36.53). Model specificity was 96.2% and sensitivity was 63.2%. As secondary objective we investigated the use of enoxaparin for VTE prophylaxis in the HRG. HRG patients without enoxaparin prophylaxis showed a significantly reduced thrombosis-free survival compared with children on low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH). On the basis of the high specificity, the model may identify children with leukemia at risk of VTE. LMWH may help prevent VTE in the HRG; this warrants assessment in larger cooperative clinical trials.
doi_str_mv 10.1182/blood-2010-01-263012
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Vascular system</topic><topic>Catheterization, Central Venous - statistics &amp; numerical data</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Child, Preschool</topic><topic>Clinical Trials and Observations</topic><topic>Cohort Studies</topic><topic>Databases, Factual</topic><topic>Diseases of the peripheral vessels. Diseases of the vena cava. Miscellaneous</topic><topic>Enoxaparin - therapeutic use</topic><topic>Escherichia coli</topic><topic>Hematologic and hematopoietic diseases</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infant</topic><topic>Leukemias. Malignant lymphomas. Malignant reticulosis. 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Developing a predictive model for determining children at increased risk would be beneficial in targeting interventional studies to high-risk groups (HRGs). Predictive variables were incorporated into a risk assessment model, which was evaluated in 456 children and then validated in 339 patients. VTE risk by score was no greater than 2.5 for low-risk group (LRG) and greater than 2.5 for HRG. VTE rates at 3.5 months (validation cohorts) were 2.5% in LRG and 64.7% in HRG. In multivariate analysis adjusted for age, duration of asparaginase administration, enoxaparin prophylaxis, and T-immunophenotype, the HRG was significantly associated with VTE compared with the LRG (hazard/95% confidence interval [CI], 8.22/1.85-36.53). Model specificity was 96.2% and sensitivity was 63.2%. As secondary objective we investigated the use of enoxaparin for VTE prophylaxis in the HRG. HRG patients without enoxaparin prophylaxis showed a significantly reduced thrombosis-free survival compared with children on low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH). On the basis of the high specificity, the model may identify children with leukemia at risk of VTE. LMWH may help prevent VTE in the HRG; this warrants assessment in larger cooperative clinical trials.</abstract><cop>Washington, DC</cop><pub>Elsevier Inc</pub><pmid>20339086</pmid><doi>10.1182/blood-2010-01-263012</doi><tpages>6</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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source MEDLINE; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; Alma/SFX Local Collection
subjects Adolescent
Anticoagulants - therapeutic use
Asparaginase - therapeutic use
Biological and medical sciences
Blood and lymphatic vessels
Cardiology. Vascular system
Catheterization, Central Venous - statistics & numerical data
Child
Child, Preschool
Clinical Trials and Observations
Cohort Studies
Databases, Factual
Diseases of the peripheral vessels. Diseases of the vena cava. Miscellaneous
Enoxaparin - therapeutic use
Escherichia coli
Hematologic and hematopoietic diseases
Humans
Infant
Leukemias. Malignant lymphomas. Malignant reticulosis. Myelofibrosis
Medical sciences
Models, Statistical
Multivariate Analysis
Precursor Cell Lymphoblastic Leukemia-Lymphoma - epidemiology
Predictive Value of Tests
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Assessment - methods
Risk Factors
Sensitivity and Specificity
Steroids - therapeutic use
Thromboembolism - diagnosis
Thromboembolism - epidemiology
Thromboembolism - prevention & control
title Validation of a predictive model for identifying an increased risk for thromboembolism in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia: results of a multicenter cohort study
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