Have we put an end to social promotion?: Changes in school progress among children aged 6 to 17 from 1972 to 2005
We examine trends over time in the proportion of children below the modal grade for their age (BMG), a proxy for grade retention, and in the effects of its demographic and socioeconomic correlates. We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual Octob...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Demography 2008-08, Vol.45 (3), p.719-740 |
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| creator | Frederick, Carl B Hauser, Robert M |
| description | We examine trends over time in the proportion of children below the modal grade for their age (BMG), a proxy for grade retention, and in the effects of its demographic and socioeconomic correlates. We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual October school enrollment supplements of the Current Population Survey. This model identifies systematic variation in the effects of social background across age and time from 1972 to 2005. While the effects of socioeconomic background variables on progress through school have become increasingly powerful as children grow older, that typical pattern has been attenuated across the past three decades by a steady secular decline in the influence of those variables across all ages. A great deal of concern has been expressed about rising levels of economic and social inequality in the United States since the middle 1970s, and about the potential intergenerational effects of such inequality. However, there has been an opposite trend in the effects of social origins on being BMG. A trend is not a law, and there is reason to be concerned about the recent deceleration of the secular decline in effects of social background on being BMG. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1353/dem.0.0015 |
| format | Article |
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We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual October school enrollment supplements of the Current Population Survey. This model identifies systematic variation in the effects of social background across age and time from 1972 to 2005. While the effects of socioeconomic background variables on progress through school have become increasingly powerful as children grow older, that typical pattern has been attenuated across the past three decades by a steady secular decline in the influence of those variables across all ages. A great deal of concern has been expressed about rising levels of economic and social inequality in the United States since the middle 1970s, and about the potential intergenerational effects of such inequality. However, there has been an opposite trend in the effects of social origins on being BMG. A trend is not a law, and there is reason to be concerned about the recent deceleration of the secular decline in effects of social background on being BMG.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1533-7790</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 0070-3370</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1533-7790</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1353/dem.0.0015</identifier><identifier>PMID: 18939669</identifier><identifier>CODEN: DMGYAH</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New York: Population Association of America</publisher><subject>Academic achievement ; Adolescent ; Age ; Algorithms ; Bildungsverhalten ; Child ; Children ; Children & youth ; Demography ; Education ; Educational Measurement - statistics & numerical data ; Educational Status ; Enrollments ; Estimates ; Female ; Geography ; Grade repetition ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Kindergarten education ; Longitudinal studies ; Male ; Medicine/Public Health ; Missing data ; Models, Theoretical ; Odds Ratio ; Population ; Population Economics ; Regression Analysis ; School age children ; Schüler ; Scope of employment ; Social development ; Social promotion ; Social Sciences ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Socioeconomic status ; Sociology ; Sozialer Status ; Spouses ; Student retention ; Studies ; Survey data ; Trends ; U.S.A ; United States ; USA</subject><ispartof>Demography, 2008-08, Vol.45 (3), p.719-740</ispartof><rights>Copyright The Population Association of America</rights><rights>Copyright © 2008 Population Association of America.</rights><rights>Population Association of America 2008</rights><rights>Copyright Population Association of America Aug 2008</rights><rights>Copyright © 2008 Population Association of America</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c618t-b284b0290f042cc4fdf6bb78377133d758423cb997429fa2abea0512d60d7cca3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c618t-b284b0290f042cc4fdf6bb78377133d758423cb997429fa2abea0512d60d7cca3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/25475998$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/25475998$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,799,881,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294,53766,53768,57992,58225</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://www.fachportal-paedagogik.de/fis_bildung/suche/fis_set.html?FId=846127$$DAccess content in the German Education Portal$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18939669$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Frederick, Carl B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hauser, Robert M</creatorcontrib><title>Have we put an end to social promotion?: Changes in school progress among children aged 6 to 17 from 1972 to 2005</title><title>Demography</title><addtitle>Demography</addtitle><addtitle>Demography</addtitle><description>We examine trends over time in the proportion of children below the modal grade for their age (BMG), a proxy for grade retention, and in the effects of its demographic and socioeconomic correlates. We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual October school enrollment supplements of the Current Population Survey. This model identifies systematic variation in the effects of social background across age and time from 1972 to 2005. While the effects of socioeconomic background variables on progress through school have become increasingly powerful as children grow older, that typical pattern has been attenuated across the past three decades by a steady secular decline in the influence of those variables across all ages. A great deal of concern has been expressed about rising levels of economic and social inequality in the United States since the middle 1970s, and about the potential intergenerational effects of such inequality. However, there has been an opposite trend in the effects of social origins on being BMG. A trend is not a law, and there is reason to be concerned about the recent deceleration of the secular decline in effects of social background on being BMG.</description><subject>Academic achievement</subject><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Algorithms</subject><subject>Bildungsverhalten</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Children</subject><subject>Children & youth</subject><subject>Demography</subject><subject>Education</subject><subject>Educational Measurement - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Educational Status</subject><subject>Enrollments</subject><subject>Estimates</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Geography</subject><subject>Grade repetition</subject><subject>History, 20th Century</subject><subject>History, 21st Century</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Kindergarten education</subject><subject>Longitudinal studies</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medicine/Public Health</subject><subject>Missing data</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Odds Ratio</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Population Economics</subject><subject>Regression Analysis</subject><subject>School age children</subject><subject>Schüler</subject><subject>Scope of employment</subject><subject>Social development</subject><subject>Social promotion</subject><subject>Social Sciences</subject><subject>Socioeconomic Factors</subject><subject>Socioeconomic status</subject><subject>Sociology</subject><subject>Sozialer Status</subject><subject>Spouses</subject><subject>Student retention</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Survey data</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>U.S.A</subject><subject>United 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children aged 6 to 17 from 1972 to 2005</atitle><jtitle>Demography</jtitle><stitle>Demography</stitle><addtitle>Demography</addtitle><date>2008-08-01</date><risdate>2008</risdate><volume>45</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>719</spage><epage>740</epage><pages>719-740</pages><issn>1533-7790</issn><issn>0070-3370</issn><eissn>1533-7790</eissn><coden>DMGYAH</coden><abstract>We examine trends over time in the proportion of children below the modal grade for their age (BMG), a proxy for grade retention, and in the effects of its demographic and socioeconomic correlates. We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual October school enrollment supplements of the Current Population Survey. This model identifies systematic variation in the effects of social background across age and time from 1972 to 2005. While the effects of socioeconomic background variables on progress through school have become increasingly powerful as children grow older, that typical pattern has been attenuated across the past three decades by a steady secular decline in the influence of those variables across all ages. A great deal of concern has been expressed about rising levels of economic and social inequality in the United States since the middle 1970s, and about the potential intergenerational effects of such inequality. However, there has been an opposite trend in the effects of social origins on being BMG. A trend is not a law, and there is reason to be concerned about the recent deceleration of the secular decline in effects of social background on being BMG.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>Population Association of America</pub><pmid>18939669</pmid><doi>10.1353/dem.0.0015</doi><tpages>22</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| source | Jstor Complete Legacy; MEDLINE; SpringerLink Journals; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; Business Source Complete; PubMed Central |
| subjects | Academic achievement Adolescent Age Algorithms Bildungsverhalten Child Children Children & youth Demography Education Educational Measurement - statistics & numerical data Educational Status Enrollments Estimates Female Geography Grade repetition History, 20th Century History, 21st Century Humans Kindergarten education Longitudinal studies Male Medicine/Public Health Missing data Models, Theoretical Odds Ratio Population Population Economics Regression Analysis School age children Schüler Scope of employment Social development Social promotion Social Sciences Socioeconomic Factors Socioeconomic status Sociology Sozialer Status Spouses Student retention Studies Survey data Trends U.S.A United States USA |
| title | Have we put an end to social promotion?: Changes in school progress among children aged 6 to 17 from 1972 to 2005 |
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