Learning from Evidence in a Complex World
Policies to promote public health and welfare often fail or worsen the problems they are intended to solve. Evidence-based learning should prevent such policy resistance, but learning in complex systems is often weak and slow. Complexity hinders our ability to discover the delayed and distal impacts...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | American journal of public health (1971) 2006-03, Vol.96 (3), p.505-514 |
|---|---|
| 1. Verfasser: | |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 514 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 3 |
| container_start_page | 505 |
| container_title | American journal of public health (1971) |
| container_volume | 96 |
| creator | Sterman, John D |
| description | Policies to promote public health and welfare often fail or worsen the problems they are intended to solve. Evidence-based learning should prevent such policy resistance, but learning in complex systems is often weak and slow. Complexity hinders our ability to discover the delayed and distal impacts of interventions, generating unintended "side effects." Yet learning often fails even when strong evidence is available: common mental models lead to erroneous but self-confirming inferences, allowing harmful beliefs and behaviors to persist and undermining implementation of beneficial policies. Here I show how systems thinking and simulation modeling can help expand the boundaries of our mental models, enhance our ability to generate and learn from evidence, and catalyze effective change in public health and beyond. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.2105/AJPH.2005.066043 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_pubme</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_1470513</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>67681015</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c595t-96bee744a1cb1c154b2b6a2a8bbbcc9d93335d3110b5dbf233bdf4c8211227f3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNpdkc-LUzEQx4Mobnf17kkeggseWmfy6zWXhaWsrlLQw4LHkOTltSl5LzVpV_3vTWmx6mkG5jNf5jtfQl4hzCiCeH_7-ev9jAKIGUgJnD0hExQcpwB8_pRMABTUnskLclnKBgBRCXxOLlByrkSrJuTd0ps8hnHV9DkNzd1j6PzofBPGxjSLNGyj_9l8Szl2L8iz3sTiX57qFXn4cPewuJ8uv3z8tLhdTp1QYjdV0nrfcm7QWXT1GkutNNTMrbXOqU4xxkTHEMGKzvaUMdv13M0pIqVtz67IzVF2u7eD75wfd9lEvc1hMPmXTibofydjWOtVetTIWxDIqsD1SSCn73tfdnoIxfkYzejTvmjZyjkCigq--Q_cpH0eqzdNUYDi9VsVgiPkciol-_7PJQj6kIE-ZKAPGehjBnXl9d8Ozgunp1fg7QkwxZnYZzO6UM5cKyS0QM9O1mG1_hGy12UwMVZZ1GazXSupmRYg2G8Pc5r8</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Open Access Repository</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>215094119</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Learning from Evidence in a Complex World</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>PAIS Index</source><source>Business Source Complete</source><source>PubMed Central</source><source>Alma/SFX Local Collection</source><creator>Sterman, John D</creator><creatorcontrib>Sterman, John D</creatorcontrib><description>Policies to promote public health and welfare often fail or worsen the problems they are intended to solve. Evidence-based learning should prevent such policy resistance, but learning in complex systems is often weak and slow. Complexity hinders our ability to discover the delayed and distal impacts of interventions, generating unintended "side effects." Yet learning often fails even when strong evidence is available: common mental models lead to erroneous but self-confirming inferences, allowing harmful beliefs and behaviors to persist and undermining implementation of beneficial policies. Here I show how systems thinking and simulation modeling can help expand the boundaries of our mental models, enhance our ability to generate and learn from evidence, and catalyze effective change in public health and beyond.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0090-0036</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1541-0048</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2005.066043</identifier><identifier>PMID: 16449579</identifier><identifier>CODEN: AJPEAG</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington, DC: Am Public Health Assoc</publisher><subject>Acquired immune deficiency syndrome ; AIDS ; Behavior ; Biological & chemical terrorism ; Biological and medical sciences ; Cardiovascular disease ; Citrus fruits ; Communication ; Computer Simulation ; Cystic fibrosis ; Drug use ; Experiments ; Failure ; Feedback ; GDP ; Gross Domestic Product ; Health Policy ; Health services ; Humans ; Infant mortality ; Learning ; Life expectancy ; Management ; Medical errors ; Medical sciences ; Miscellaneous ; Mortality ; Pathogens ; Public health ; Public Health Matters ; Public health. Hygiene ; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine ; Research - organization & administration ; Scientific method ; Studies ; Systems Theory ; Tropical diseases ; United States</subject><ispartof>American journal of public health (1971), 2006-03, Vol.96 (3), p.505-514</ispartof><rights>2006 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright American Public Health Association Mar 2006</rights><rights>American Journal of Public Health 2006 2006</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c595t-96bee744a1cb1c154b2b6a2a8bbbcc9d93335d3110b5dbf233bdf4c8211227f3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c595t-96bee744a1cb1c154b2b6a2a8bbbcc9d93335d3110b5dbf233bdf4c8211227f3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1470513/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1470513/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,881,27843,27901,27902,53766,53768</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=17560702$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16449579$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Sterman, John D</creatorcontrib><title>Learning from Evidence in a Complex World</title><title>American journal of public health (1971)</title><addtitle>Am J Public Health</addtitle><description>Policies to promote public health and welfare often fail or worsen the problems they are intended to solve. Evidence-based learning should prevent such policy resistance, but learning in complex systems is often weak and slow. Complexity hinders our ability to discover the delayed and distal impacts of interventions, generating unintended "side effects." Yet learning often fails even when strong evidence is available: common mental models lead to erroneous but self-confirming inferences, allowing harmful beliefs and behaviors to persist and undermining implementation of beneficial policies. Here I show how systems thinking and simulation modeling can help expand the boundaries of our mental models, enhance our ability to generate and learn from evidence, and catalyze effective change in public health and beyond.</description><subject>Acquired immune deficiency syndrome</subject><subject>AIDS</subject><subject>Behavior</subject><subject>Biological & chemical terrorism</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Cardiovascular disease</subject><subject>Citrus fruits</subject><subject>Communication</subject><subject>Computer Simulation</subject><subject>Cystic fibrosis</subject><subject>Drug use</subject><subject>Experiments</subject><subject>Failure</subject><subject>Feedback</subject><subject>GDP</subject><subject>Gross Domestic Product</subject><subject>Health Policy</subject><subject>Health services</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infant mortality</subject><subject>Learning</subject><subject>Life expectancy</subject><subject>Management</subject><subject>Medical errors</subject><subject>Medical sciences</subject><subject>Miscellaneous</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Pathogens</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Public Health Matters</subject><subject>Public health. Hygiene</subject><subject>Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine</subject><subject>Research - organization & administration</subject><subject>Scientific method</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Systems Theory</subject><subject>Tropical diseases</subject><subject>United States</subject><issn>0090-0036</issn><issn>1541-0048</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2006</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>7TQ</sourceid><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>BEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNpdkc-LUzEQx4Mobnf17kkeggseWmfy6zWXhaWsrlLQw4LHkOTltSl5LzVpV_3vTWmx6mkG5jNf5jtfQl4hzCiCeH_7-ev9jAKIGUgJnD0hExQcpwB8_pRMABTUnskLclnKBgBRCXxOLlByrkSrJuTd0ps8hnHV9DkNzd1j6PzofBPGxjSLNGyj_9l8Szl2L8iz3sTiX57qFXn4cPewuJ8uv3z8tLhdTp1QYjdV0nrfcm7QWXT1GkutNNTMrbXOqU4xxkTHEMGKzvaUMdv13M0pIqVtz67IzVF2u7eD75wfd9lEvc1hMPmXTibofydjWOtVetTIWxDIqsD1SSCn73tfdnoIxfkYzejTvmjZyjkCigq--Q_cpH0eqzdNUYDi9VsVgiPkciol-_7PJQj6kIE-ZKAPGehjBnXl9d8Ozgunp1fg7QkwxZnYZzO6UM5cKyS0QM9O1mG1_hGy12UwMVZZ1GazXSupmRYg2G8Pc5r8</recordid><startdate>20060301</startdate><enddate>20060301</enddate><creator>Sterman, John D</creator><general>Am Public Health Assoc</general><general>American Public Health Association</general><general>American Journal of Public Health 2006</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>0-V</scope><scope>0U~</scope><scope>1-H</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7TQ</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>87Z</scope><scope>88A</scope><scope>88C</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>88G</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>88J</scope><scope>8AF</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8FL</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ALSLI</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DHY</scope><scope>DON</scope><scope>DPSOV</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FRNLG</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K60</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>K9-</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>KC-</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>L.0</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>M0R</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M0T</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M2L</scope><scope>M2M</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M2R</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PHGZM</scope><scope>PHGZT</scope><scope>PJZUB</scope><scope>PKEHL</scope><scope>POGQB</scope><scope>PPXIY</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQBZA</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQGLB</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PRQQA</scope><scope>PSYQQ</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>S0X</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20060301</creationdate><title>Learning from Evidence in a Complex World</title><author>Sterman, John D</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c595t-96bee744a1cb1c154b2b6a2a8bbbcc9d93335d3110b5dbf233bdf4c8211227f3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2006</creationdate><topic>Acquired immune deficiency syndrome</topic><topic>AIDS</topic><topic>Behavior</topic><topic>Biological & chemical terrorism</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Cardiovascular disease</topic><topic>Citrus fruits</topic><topic>Communication</topic><topic>Computer Simulation</topic><topic>Cystic fibrosis</topic><topic>Drug use</topic><topic>Experiments</topic><topic>Failure</topic><topic>Feedback</topic><topic>GDP</topic><topic>Gross Domestic Product</topic><topic>Health Policy</topic><topic>Health services</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infant mortality</topic><topic>Learning</topic><topic>Life expectancy</topic><topic>Management</topic><topic>Medical errors</topic><topic>Medical sciences</topic><topic>Miscellaneous</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Pathogens</topic><topic>Public health</topic><topic>Public Health Matters</topic><topic>Public health. Hygiene</topic><topic>Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine</topic><topic>Research - organization & administration</topic><topic>Scientific method</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Systems Theory</topic><topic>Tropical diseases</topic><topic>United States</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Sterman, John D</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Social Sciences Premium Collection</collection><collection>Global News & ABI/Inform Professional</collection><collection>Trade PRO</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database</collection><collection>PAIS Index</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (PDF only)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Biology Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Healthcare Administration Database (Alumni)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Psychology Database (Alumni)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Social Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>STEM Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Social Science Premium Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>eLibrary</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>PAIS International</collection><collection>PAIS International (Ovid)</collection><collection>Politics Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection</collection><collection>Consumer Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Politics Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Advanced</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Standard</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global</collection><collection>Consumer Health Database</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Healthcare Administration Database</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Political Science Database</collection><collection>Psychology Database</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Social Science Database</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (New)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic (New)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Research Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New)</collection><collection>ProQuest Sociology & Social Sciences Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Health & Nursing</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Applied & Life Sciences</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>ProQuest One Social Sciences</collection><collection>ProQuest One Psychology</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>SIRS Editorial</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>American journal of public health (1971)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Sterman, John D</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Learning from Evidence in a Complex World</atitle><jtitle>American journal of public health (1971)</jtitle><addtitle>Am J Public Health</addtitle><date>2006-03-01</date><risdate>2006</risdate><volume>96</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>505</spage><epage>514</epage><pages>505-514</pages><issn>0090-0036</issn><eissn>1541-0048</eissn><coden>AJPEAG</coden><abstract>Policies to promote public health and welfare often fail or worsen the problems they are intended to solve. Evidence-based learning should prevent such policy resistance, but learning in complex systems is often weak and slow. Complexity hinders our ability to discover the delayed and distal impacts of interventions, generating unintended "side effects." Yet learning often fails even when strong evidence is available: common mental models lead to erroneous but self-confirming inferences, allowing harmful beliefs and behaviors to persist and undermining implementation of beneficial policies. Here I show how systems thinking and simulation modeling can help expand the boundaries of our mental models, enhance our ability to generate and learn from evidence, and catalyze effective change in public health and beyond.</abstract><cop>Washington, DC</cop><pub>Am Public Health Assoc</pub><pmid>16449579</pmid><doi>10.2105/AJPH.2005.066043</doi><tpages>10</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0090-0036 |
| ispartof | American journal of public health (1971), 2006-03, Vol.96 (3), p.505-514 |
| issn | 0090-0036 1541-0048 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_1470513 |
| source | MEDLINE; PAIS Index; Business Source Complete; PubMed Central; Alma/SFX Local Collection |
| subjects | Acquired immune deficiency syndrome AIDS Behavior Biological & chemical terrorism Biological and medical sciences Cardiovascular disease Citrus fruits Communication Computer Simulation Cystic fibrosis Drug use Experiments Failure Feedback GDP Gross Domestic Product Health Policy Health services Humans Infant mortality Learning Life expectancy Management Medical errors Medical sciences Miscellaneous Mortality Pathogens Public health Public Health Matters Public health. Hygiene Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine Research - organization & administration Scientific method Studies Systems Theory Tropical diseases United States |
| title | Learning from Evidence in a Complex World |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-02-15T17%3A41%3A23IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_pubme&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Learning%20from%20Evidence%20in%20a%20Complex%20World&rft.jtitle=American%20journal%20of%20public%20health%20(1971)&rft.au=Sterman,%20John%20D&rft.date=2006-03-01&rft.volume=96&rft.issue=3&rft.spage=505&rft.epage=514&rft.pages=505-514&rft.issn=0090-0036&rft.eissn=1541-0048&rft.coden=AJPEAG&rft_id=info:doi/10.2105/AJPH.2005.066043&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_pubme%3E67681015%3C/proquest_pubme%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=215094119&rft_id=info:pmid/16449579&rfr_iscdi=true |