Climate Variation and Incidence of Ross River Virus in Cairns, Australia: A Time-Series Analysis
In this study we assessed the impact of climate variability on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission and validated an epidemic-forecasting model in Cairns, Australia. Data on the RRv cases recorded between 1985 and 1996 were obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Environmental health perspectives 2001-12, Vol.109 (12), p.1271-1273 |
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| creator | Tong, Shilu Hu, Wenbiao |
| description | In this study we assessed the impact of climate variability on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission and validated an epidemic-forecasting model in Cairns, Australia. Data on the RRv cases recorded between 1985 and 1996 were obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The cross-correlation function (CCF) showed that maximum temperature in the current month and rainfall and relative humidity at a lag of 2 months were positively and significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRv, whereas relative humidity at a lag of 5 months was inversely associated with the RRv transmission. We developed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models on the data collected between 1985 to 1994, and then validated the models using the data collected between 1995 and 1996. The results show that the relative humidity at a lag of 5 months (p < 0.001) and the rainfall at a lag of 2 months (p < 0.05) appeared to play significant roles in the transmission of RRv disease in Cairns. Furthermore, the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1289/ehp.011091271 |
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Data on the RRv cases recorded between 1985 and 1996 were obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The cross-correlation function (CCF) showed that maximum temperature in the current month and rainfall and relative humidity at a lag of 2 months were positively and significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRv, whereas relative humidity at a lag of 5 months was inversely associated with the RRv transmission. We developed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models on the data collected between 1985 to 1994, and then validated the models using the data collected between 1995 and 1996. The results show that the relative humidity at a lag of 5 months (p < 0.001) and the rainfall at a lag of 2 months (p < 0.05) appeared to play significant roles in the transmission of RRv disease in Cairns. Furthermore, the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0091-6765</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1552-9924</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1289/ehp.011091271</identifier><identifier>PMID: 11748035</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. National Institutes of Health. Department of Health, Education and Welfare</publisher><subject>Alphavirus Infections - epidemiology ; Alphavirus Infections - transmission ; Arboviruses ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climatology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease transmission ; Epidemiology ; Exanthema - epidemiology ; Freshwater ; Humans ; Humidity ; Incidence ; Models, Theoretical ; Mosquitos ; Queensland - epidemiology ; Rain ; Relative humidity ; Ross River virus ; Temperature ; vector-borne diseases</subject><ispartof>Environmental health perspectives, 2001-12, Vol.109 (12), p.1271-1273</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2001 National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c645t-689402863b9b18dd4878099c86cfd9dd473f7615802c6ac3df541eb10903b7583</citedby></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/3454750$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/3454750$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,803,864,885,27924,27925,53791,53793,58017,58250</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11748035$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Tong, Shilu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hu, Wenbiao</creatorcontrib><title>Climate Variation and Incidence of Ross River Virus in Cairns, Australia: A Time-Series Analysis</title><title>Environmental health perspectives</title><addtitle>Environ Health Perspect</addtitle><description>In this study we assessed the impact of climate variability on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission and validated an epidemic-forecasting model in Cairns, Australia. Data on the RRv cases recorded between 1985 and 1996 were obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The cross-correlation function (CCF) showed that maximum temperature in the current month and rainfall and relative humidity at a lag of 2 months were positively and significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRv, whereas relative humidity at a lag of 5 months was inversely associated with the RRv transmission. We developed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models on the data collected between 1985 to 1994, and then validated the models using the data collected between 1995 and 1996. The results show that the relative humidity at a lag of 5 months (p < 0.001) and the rainfall at a lag of 2 months (p < 0.05) appeared to play significant roles in the transmission of RRv disease in Cairns. Furthermore, the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values.</description><subject>Alphavirus Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>Alphavirus Infections - transmission</subject><subject>Arboviruses</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climatology</subject><subject>Disease Outbreaks</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Exanthema - epidemiology</subject><subject>Freshwater</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Humidity</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Mosquitos</subject><subject>Queensland - epidemiology</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Relative humidity</subject><subject>Ross River virus</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>vector-borne diseases</subject><issn>0091-6765</issn><issn>1552-9924</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2001</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqN0s9r2zAUB3AzNtau23HXocM2dqg7_bBkaYdBCPsRKBTSLldNkZ8TFUdKJbus__0UEroEAh06GMkfnp5436J4S_AFoVJ9huX6AhOCFaE1eVacEs5pqRStnhenOJ-Wohb8pHiV0i3GmEghXhYnhNSVxIyfFr_HnVuZHtDMRGd6FzwyvkETb10D3gIKLZqGlNDU3UNEMxeHhJxHY-OiT-doNKQ-ms6ZL2iEbtwKymuIDhIaedM9JJdeFy9a0yV4s_ueFb--f7sZ_ywvr35MxqPL0oqK96WQqsJUCjZXcyKbppK1xEpZKWzbqLyvWVsLwiWmVhjLmpZXBOb53ZjNay7ZWfF1W3c9zFfQWPCbvvQ65ufFBx2M04d_vFvqRbjXhFaYE5wLfNwViOFugNTrlUsWus54CEPSNWUi3_M0JEoxKiV5GlYC53GxDM-3cGE60M63IXdoF-AhNxo8tC4fjyTlnEgmMi-P8LwaWDl7zH868Jn08KdfmCElPbme_je9mh3QD3t0Cabrlyl0wyZD6Vi3NuYcRWgfZ0Kw3kRY5wjrxwhn_25_kP_0LrMZvN-C29SHuF-NMlxrVvGq5pj9BTof9AU</recordid><startdate>20011201</startdate><enddate>20011201</enddate><creator>Tong, Shilu</creator><creator>Hu, Wenbiao</creator><general>National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. 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Department of Health, Education and Welfare</general><general>National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>IOV</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>SOI</scope><scope>7T2</scope><scope>7T4</scope><scope>7TV</scope><scope>7U2</scope><scope>7U6</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>H95</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20011201</creationdate><title>Climate Variation and Incidence of Ross River Virus in Cairns, Australia: A Time-Series Analysis</title><author>Tong, Shilu ; Hu, Wenbiao</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c645t-689402863b9b18dd4878099c86cfd9dd473f7615802c6ac3df541eb10903b7583</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2001</creationdate><topic>Alphavirus Infections - epidemiology</topic><topic>Alphavirus Infections - transmission</topic><topic>Arboviruses</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>Climatology</topic><topic>Disease Outbreaks</topic><topic>Disease transmission</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Exanthema - epidemiology</topic><topic>Freshwater</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Humidity</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Models, Theoretical</topic><topic>Mosquitos</topic><topic>Queensland - epidemiology</topic><topic>Rain</topic><topic>Relative humidity</topic><topic>Ross River virus</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><topic>vector-borne diseases</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Tong, Shilu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hu, Wenbiao</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Opposing Viewpoints</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Science</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Health and Safety Science Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Human Population & Natural Resource Management</collection><collection>Pollution Abstracts</collection><collection>Safety Science and Risk</collection><collection>Sustainability Science Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 1: Biological Sciences & Living Resources</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Environmental health perspectives</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Tong, Shilu</au><au>Hu, Wenbiao</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Climate Variation and Incidence of Ross River Virus in Cairns, Australia: A Time-Series Analysis</atitle><jtitle>Environmental health perspectives</jtitle><addtitle>Environ Health Perspect</addtitle><date>2001-12-01</date><risdate>2001</risdate><volume>109</volume><issue>12</issue><spage>1271</spage><epage>1273</epage><pages>1271-1273</pages><issn>0091-6765</issn><eissn>1552-9924</eissn><abstract>In this study we assessed the impact of climate variability on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission and validated an epidemic-forecasting model in Cairns, Australia. Data on the RRv cases recorded between 1985 and 1996 were obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The cross-correlation function (CCF) showed that maximum temperature in the current month and rainfall and relative humidity at a lag of 2 months were positively and significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRv, whereas relative humidity at a lag of 5 months was inversely associated with the RRv transmission. We developed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models on the data collected between 1985 to 1994, and then validated the models using the data collected between 1995 and 1996. The results show that the relative humidity at a lag of 5 months (p < 0.001) and the rainfall at a lag of 2 months (p < 0.05) appeared to play significant roles in the transmission of RRv disease in Cairns. 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| subjects | Alphavirus Infections - epidemiology Alphavirus Infections - transmission Arboviruses Climate Climate change Climate models Climatology Disease Outbreaks Disease transmission Epidemiology Exanthema - epidemiology Freshwater Humans Humidity Incidence Models, Theoretical Mosquitos Queensland - epidemiology Rain Relative humidity Ross River virus Temperature vector-borne diseases |
| title | Climate Variation and Incidence of Ross River Virus in Cairns, Australia: A Time-Series Analysis |
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