Association of hypertension and long‐term blood pressure changes with new‐onset diabetes in the elderly: A 10‐year cohort study
Aim To explore the correlation between new‐onset diabetes (NOD), hypertension and blood pressure management among elderly individuals in China. Materials and Methods A cohort analysis involved 1380 participants aged 60 years or older, initially free of diabetes in 2008, from the Chinese Longitudinal...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Diabetes, obesity & metabolism obesity & metabolism, 2025-01, Vol.27 (1), p.92-101 |
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| creator | Li, Shanshan Yang, Boyi Shang, Shasha Jiang, Wei |
| description | Aim
To explore the correlation between new‐onset diabetes (NOD), hypertension and blood pressure management among elderly individuals in China.
Materials and Methods
A cohort analysis involved 1380 participants aged 60 years or older, initially free of diabetes in 2008, from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Follow‐up assessments occurred every 2‐3 years. The relationship between hypertension, blood pressure changes and NOD was analysed using multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression.
Results
By 2018, 102 participants developed diabetes, while 1278 remained without diabetes. The cumulative diabetes prevalence increased from 3.1% at 3 years to 7.4% at 10 years. Hypertension prevalence increased from 20.9% at baseline to 41.0% at 10 years, with higher rates in those diagnosed with diabetes during follow‐up. Multivariate analysis identified age, gender, baseline hypertension and systolic blood pressure (SBP) as independent predictors of NOD. Hypertension combined with overweight/obesity significantly increased the risk of NOD (hazard ratio [HR] 2.837; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.680‐4.792). We evaluated participants' blood pressure management levels in 2008 and 2011, then tracked the onset of diabetes from 2011 to 2018. Compared with participants with an average SBP below 120 mmHg in 2008 and 2011, those with SBP of 140 mmHg or higher had an 8‐fold higher risk of developing NOD (adjusted HR8.492, 95% CI 2.048‐35.217, P = .003), the highest risk group. Participants with SBP of 130‐139.9 mmHg also had a significantly increased risk (adjusted HR 5.065, 95% CI 1.186‐21.633, P = .029), while those with SBP of 120‐129.9 mmHg showed no significant difference (HR 2.730, 95% CI 0.597‐12.481, P = .195). Consistently high SBP (≥ 130 mmHg) further increased NOD risk (adjusted HR 3.464, 95% CI 1.464‐8.196, P = .005).
Conclusions
Significant predictors of NOD included age, gender, baseline hypertension and blood pressure management. Maintaining SBP consistently below 130 mmHg may be an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of NOD in the general elderly population. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/dom.15986 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_pubme</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_11618231</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>3111639428</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3346-424935836ffc4b22cc5c26b3bc45bdd1a9fdbb004865fe3e1205e3724cca434c3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp1kctu1DAUhiMEoqWw4AWQJTZ0kda3eBI21ajlJhV1A2vLsU8mrhx7sB1G2bFhzzPyJLidUgES3tjW-fTpP_qr6jnBJ6ScUxOmE9J0rXhQHRIuWE0YFQ9v37RuO0wPqicpXWOMOWtXj6sD1rGGiLY7rL6vUwraqmyDR2FA47KFmMGnm7_yBrngNz-__cgQJ9S7EAzaRkhpjoD0qPwGEtrZPCIPu4IFnyAjY1UPuUysR3kEBM5AdMtrtEYEF2oBFZEOY4gZpTyb5Wn1aFAuwbO7-6j6_PbNp_P39eXVuw_n68taM8ZFzSkvwVsmhkHznlKtG01Fz3rNm94YorrB9H3ZshXNAAwIxQ2wFeVaK864ZkfV2d67nfsJjAafo3JyG-2k4iKDsvLvibej3ISvkhBBWspIMby6M8TwZYaU5WSTBueUhzAnyUofgnWctgV9-Q96Heboy36F4nhFOtHhQh3vKR1DShGG-zQEy5t2ZWlX3rZb2Bd_xr8nf9dZgNM9sLMOlv-b5MXVx73yFxLXs_4</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Open Access Repository</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>3140719690</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Association of hypertension and long‐term blood pressure changes with new‐onset diabetes in the elderly: A 10‐year cohort study</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete</source><creator>Li, Shanshan ; Yang, Boyi ; Shang, Shasha ; Jiang, Wei</creator><creatorcontrib>Li, Shanshan ; Yang, Boyi ; Shang, Shasha ; Jiang, Wei</creatorcontrib><description>Aim
To explore the correlation between new‐onset diabetes (NOD), hypertension and blood pressure management among elderly individuals in China.
Materials and Methods
A cohort analysis involved 1380 participants aged 60 years or older, initially free of diabetes in 2008, from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Follow‐up assessments occurred every 2‐3 years. The relationship between hypertension, blood pressure changes and NOD was analysed using multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression.
Results
By 2018, 102 participants developed diabetes, while 1278 remained without diabetes. The cumulative diabetes prevalence increased from 3.1% at 3 years to 7.4% at 10 years. Hypertension prevalence increased from 20.9% at baseline to 41.0% at 10 years, with higher rates in those diagnosed with diabetes during follow‐up. Multivariate analysis identified age, gender, baseline hypertension and systolic blood pressure (SBP) as independent predictors of NOD. Hypertension combined with overweight/obesity significantly increased the risk of NOD (hazard ratio [HR] 2.837; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.680‐4.792). We evaluated participants' blood pressure management levels in 2008 and 2011, then tracked the onset of diabetes from 2011 to 2018. Compared with participants with an average SBP below 120 mmHg in 2008 and 2011, those with SBP of 140 mmHg or higher had an 8‐fold higher risk of developing NOD (adjusted HR8.492, 95% CI 2.048‐35.217, P = .003), the highest risk group. Participants with SBP of 130‐139.9 mmHg also had a significantly increased risk (adjusted HR 5.065, 95% CI 1.186‐21.633, P = .029), while those with SBP of 120‐129.9 mmHg showed no significant difference (HR 2.730, 95% CI 0.597‐12.481, P = .195). Consistently high SBP (≥ 130 mmHg) further increased NOD risk (adjusted HR 3.464, 95% CI 1.464‐8.196, P = .005).
Conclusions
Significant predictors of NOD included age, gender, baseline hypertension and blood pressure management. Maintaining SBP consistently below 130 mmHg may be an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of NOD in the general elderly population.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1462-8902</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1463-1326</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1463-1326</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/dom.15986</identifier><identifier>PMID: 39351689</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Blood levels ; Blood pressure ; Blood Pressure - physiology ; China - epidemiology ; CLHLS ; Cohort Studies ; Diabetes ; Diabetes mellitus ; Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology ; Diabetes Mellitus - physiopathology ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - complications ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - epidemiology ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - physiopathology ; elderly ; Female ; Gender ; hazard ratio [HR] ; Humans ; Hypertension ; Hypertension - complications ; Hypertension - epidemiology ; Hypertension - physiopathology ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Multivariate analysis ; new‐onset diabetes ; Obesity - complications ; Obesity - epidemiology ; Obesity - physiopathology ; Older people ; Original ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors</subject><ispartof>Diabetes, obesity & metabolism, 2025-01, Vol.27 (1), p.92-101</ispartof><rights>2024 The Author(s). published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</rights><rights>2024 The Author(s). Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</rights><rights>2024. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3346-424935836ffc4b22cc5c26b3bc45bdd1a9fdbb004865fe3e1205e3724cca434c3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-4887-5020</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Fdom.15986$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Fdom.15986$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,1411,27903,27904,45553,45554</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39351689$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Li, Shanshan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Boyi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shang, Shasha</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jiang, Wei</creatorcontrib><title>Association of hypertension and long‐term blood pressure changes with new‐onset diabetes in the elderly: A 10‐year cohort study</title><title>Diabetes, obesity & metabolism</title><addtitle>Diabetes Obes Metab</addtitle><description>Aim
To explore the correlation between new‐onset diabetes (NOD), hypertension and blood pressure management among elderly individuals in China.
Materials and Methods
A cohort analysis involved 1380 participants aged 60 years or older, initially free of diabetes in 2008, from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Follow‐up assessments occurred every 2‐3 years. The relationship between hypertension, blood pressure changes and NOD was analysed using multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression.
Results
By 2018, 102 participants developed diabetes, while 1278 remained without diabetes. The cumulative diabetes prevalence increased from 3.1% at 3 years to 7.4% at 10 years. Hypertension prevalence increased from 20.9% at baseline to 41.0% at 10 years, with higher rates in those diagnosed with diabetes during follow‐up. Multivariate analysis identified age, gender, baseline hypertension and systolic blood pressure (SBP) as independent predictors of NOD. Hypertension combined with overweight/obesity significantly increased the risk of NOD (hazard ratio [HR] 2.837; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.680‐4.792). We evaluated participants' blood pressure management levels in 2008 and 2011, then tracked the onset of diabetes from 2011 to 2018. Compared with participants with an average SBP below 120 mmHg in 2008 and 2011, those with SBP of 140 mmHg or higher had an 8‐fold higher risk of developing NOD (adjusted HR8.492, 95% CI 2.048‐35.217, P = .003), the highest risk group. Participants with SBP of 130‐139.9 mmHg also had a significantly increased risk (adjusted HR 5.065, 95% CI 1.186‐21.633, P = .029), while those with SBP of 120‐129.9 mmHg showed no significant difference (HR 2.730, 95% CI 0.597‐12.481, P = .195). Consistently high SBP (≥ 130 mmHg) further increased NOD risk (adjusted HR 3.464, 95% CI 1.464‐8.196, P = .005).
Conclusions
Significant predictors of NOD included age, gender, baseline hypertension and blood pressure management. Maintaining SBP consistently below 130 mmHg may be an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of NOD in the general elderly population.</description><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Blood levels</subject><subject>Blood pressure</subject><subject>Blood Pressure - physiology</subject><subject>China - epidemiology</subject><subject>CLHLS</subject><subject>Cohort Studies</subject><subject>Diabetes</subject><subject>Diabetes mellitus</subject><subject>Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology</subject><subject>Diabetes Mellitus - physiopathology</subject><subject>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - complications</subject><subject>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - epidemiology</subject><subject>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - physiopathology</subject><subject>elderly</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Gender</subject><subject>hazard ratio [HR]</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Hypertension</subject><subject>Hypertension - complications</subject><subject>Hypertension - epidemiology</subject><subject>Hypertension - physiopathology</subject><subject>Longitudinal Studies</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Multivariate analysis</subject><subject>new‐onset diabetes</subject><subject>Obesity - complications</subject><subject>Obesity - epidemiology</subject><subject>Obesity - physiopathology</subject><subject>Older people</subject><subject>Original</subject><subject>Prevalence</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><issn>1462-8902</issn><issn>1463-1326</issn><issn>1463-1326</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2025</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>24P</sourceid><sourceid>WIN</sourceid><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kctu1DAUhiMEoqWw4AWQJTZ0kda3eBI21ajlJhV1A2vLsU8mrhx7sB1G2bFhzzPyJLidUgES3tjW-fTpP_qr6jnBJ6ScUxOmE9J0rXhQHRIuWE0YFQ9v37RuO0wPqicpXWOMOWtXj6sD1rGGiLY7rL6vUwraqmyDR2FA47KFmMGnm7_yBrngNz-__cgQJ9S7EAzaRkhpjoD0qPwGEtrZPCIPu4IFnyAjY1UPuUysR3kEBM5AdMtrtEYEF2oBFZEOY4gZpTyb5Wn1aFAuwbO7-6j6_PbNp_P39eXVuw_n68taM8ZFzSkvwVsmhkHznlKtG01Fz3rNm94YorrB9H3ZshXNAAwIxQ2wFeVaK864ZkfV2d67nfsJjAafo3JyG-2k4iKDsvLvibej3ISvkhBBWspIMby6M8TwZYaU5WSTBueUhzAnyUofgnWctgV9-Q96Heboy36F4nhFOtHhQh3vKR1DShGG-zQEy5t2ZWlX3rZb2Bd_xr8nf9dZgNM9sLMOlv-b5MXVx73yFxLXs_4</recordid><startdate>202501</startdate><enddate>202501</enddate><creator>Li, Shanshan</creator><creator>Yang, Boyi</creator><creator>Shang, Shasha</creator><creator>Jiang, Wei</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><scope>24P</scope><scope>WIN</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7TK</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4887-5020</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202501</creationdate><title>Association of hypertension and long‐term blood pressure changes with new‐onset diabetes in the elderly: A 10‐year cohort study</title><author>Li, Shanshan ; Yang, Boyi ; Shang, Shasha ; Jiang, Wei</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3346-424935836ffc4b22cc5c26b3bc45bdd1a9fdbb004865fe3e1205e3724cca434c3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2025</creationdate><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aged, 80 and over</topic><topic>Blood levels</topic><topic>Blood pressure</topic><topic>Blood Pressure - physiology</topic><topic>China - epidemiology</topic><topic>CLHLS</topic><topic>Cohort Studies</topic><topic>Diabetes</topic><topic>Diabetes mellitus</topic><topic>Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology</topic><topic>Diabetes Mellitus - physiopathology</topic><topic>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - complications</topic><topic>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - epidemiology</topic><topic>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - physiopathology</topic><topic>elderly</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Gender</topic><topic>hazard ratio [HR]</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Hypertension</topic><topic>Hypertension - complications</topic><topic>Hypertension - epidemiology</topic><topic>Hypertension - physiopathology</topic><topic>Longitudinal Studies</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Multivariate analysis</topic><topic>new‐onset diabetes</topic><topic>Obesity - complications</topic><topic>Obesity - epidemiology</topic><topic>Obesity - physiopathology</topic><topic>Older people</topic><topic>Original</topic><topic>Prevalence</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Li, Shanshan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Boyi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shang, Shasha</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jiang, Wei</creatorcontrib><collection>Wiley Online Library Open Access</collection><collection>Wiley Free Content</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Neurosciences Abstracts</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Diabetes, obesity & metabolism</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Li, Shanshan</au><au>Yang, Boyi</au><au>Shang, Shasha</au><au>Jiang, Wei</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Association of hypertension and long‐term blood pressure changes with new‐onset diabetes in the elderly: A 10‐year cohort study</atitle><jtitle>Diabetes, obesity & metabolism</jtitle><addtitle>Diabetes Obes Metab</addtitle><date>2025-01</date><risdate>2025</risdate><volume>27</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>92</spage><epage>101</epage><pages>92-101</pages><issn>1462-8902</issn><issn>1463-1326</issn><eissn>1463-1326</eissn><abstract>Aim
To explore the correlation between new‐onset diabetes (NOD), hypertension and blood pressure management among elderly individuals in China.
Materials and Methods
A cohort analysis involved 1380 participants aged 60 years or older, initially free of diabetes in 2008, from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Follow‐up assessments occurred every 2‐3 years. The relationship between hypertension, blood pressure changes and NOD was analysed using multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression.
Results
By 2018, 102 participants developed diabetes, while 1278 remained without diabetes. The cumulative diabetes prevalence increased from 3.1% at 3 years to 7.4% at 10 years. Hypertension prevalence increased from 20.9% at baseline to 41.0% at 10 years, with higher rates in those diagnosed with diabetes during follow‐up. Multivariate analysis identified age, gender, baseline hypertension and systolic blood pressure (SBP) as independent predictors of NOD. Hypertension combined with overweight/obesity significantly increased the risk of NOD (hazard ratio [HR] 2.837; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.680‐4.792). We evaluated participants' blood pressure management levels in 2008 and 2011, then tracked the onset of diabetes from 2011 to 2018. Compared with participants with an average SBP below 120 mmHg in 2008 and 2011, those with SBP of 140 mmHg or higher had an 8‐fold higher risk of developing NOD (adjusted HR8.492, 95% CI 2.048‐35.217, P = .003), the highest risk group. Participants with SBP of 130‐139.9 mmHg also had a significantly increased risk (adjusted HR 5.065, 95% CI 1.186‐21.633, P = .029), while those with SBP of 120‐129.9 mmHg showed no significant difference (HR 2.730, 95% CI 0.597‐12.481, P = .195). Consistently high SBP (≥ 130 mmHg) further increased NOD risk (adjusted HR 3.464, 95% CI 1.464‐8.196, P = .005).
Conclusions
Significant predictors of NOD included age, gender, baseline hypertension and blood pressure management. Maintaining SBP consistently below 130 mmHg may be an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of NOD in the general elderly population.</abstract><cop>Oxford, UK</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><pmid>39351689</pmid><doi>10.1111/dom.15986</doi><tpages>10</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4887-5020</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Aged Aged, 80 and over Blood levels Blood pressure Blood Pressure - physiology China - epidemiology CLHLS Cohort Studies Diabetes Diabetes mellitus Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology Diabetes Mellitus - physiopathology Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - complications Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - epidemiology Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - physiopathology elderly Female Gender hazard ratio [HR] Humans Hypertension Hypertension - complications Hypertension - epidemiology Hypertension - physiopathology Longitudinal Studies Male Middle Aged Multivariate analysis new‐onset diabetes Obesity - complications Obesity - epidemiology Obesity - physiopathology Older people Original Prevalence Risk Factors |
| title | Association of hypertension and long‐term blood pressure changes with new‐onset diabetes in the elderly: A 10‐year cohort study |
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