Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia
Polycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunti...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2023-08, Vol.120 (33), p.e2302661120-e2302661120 |
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| creator | San-José, Adrià Mayor, Pedro Carvalho, Bruno El Bizri, Hani R Antunes, André Pinassi Antunez Correa, Miguel Aquino, Rolando Bodmer, Richard E Boubli, Jean P Carvalho, Jr, Elildo A R Campos-Silva, João Vitor Constantino, Pedro A L de Paula, Milton José Desbiez, Arnauld L J Fang, Tula Gómez-Puerta, Luis A Knoop, Simon B Longin, Guillaume Morcatty, Thais Q Maranhão, Louise Massocato, Gabriel Favero Munari, Daniel P Nunes, André Valle Puertas, Pablo Oliveira, Marcela A Pezzuti, Juarez C B Richard-Hansen, Cécile Santos, Geovanna Valsecchi, João von Mühlen, Eduardo M Bosmediano, John Rodó, Xavier |
| description | Polycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode
is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca
) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE's key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of
. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1073/pnas.2302661120 |
| format | Article |
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is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca
) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE's key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of
. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0027-8424</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1091-6490</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2302661120</identifier><identifier>PMID: 37549288</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: National Academy of Sciences</publisher><subject>Animal models ; Animals ; Biodiversity and Ecology ; Biological Sciences ; Climate change ; Disease Hotspot ; Echinococcosis ; Echinococcosis - epidemiology ; Echinococcus ; El Nino ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Entropy ; Environmental Sciences ; Humans ; Hunting ; Infections ; Mathematical models ; Maximum entropy ; Risk Factors ; Southern Oscillation ; Spatial distribution ; Statistical analysis ; Viscera ; Wildlife ; Zoonoses ; Zoonoses - epidemiology</subject><ispartof>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2023-08, Vol.120 (33), p.e2302661120-e2302661120</ispartof><rights>Copyright National Academy of Sciences Aug 15, 2023</rights><rights>Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</rights><rights>Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. 2023</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c456t-437cd305401968141552e0f12fbf221156b5268433ff1b27106c92bfe7f7f8dd3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c456t-437cd305401968141552e0f12fbf221156b5268433ff1b27106c92bfe7f7f8dd3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-5409-8336 ; 0000-0002-3022-3382 ; 0000-0002-4129-993X ; 0000-0001-5297-792X ; 0000-0003-1524-6292 ; 0000-0001-8777-2967 ; 0000-0003-4843-6180 ; 0000-0003-1258-6021 ; 0000-0002-7909-979X ; 0000-0002-1548-9131 ; 0000-0001-5968-6025 ; 0000-0003-4998-7216 ; 0000-0002-9353-791X ; 0000-0002-5988-4352 ; 0000-0002-0009-5770 ; 0000-0002-9138-0381 ; 0000-0003-4404-3486 ; 0009-0000-3232-290X ; 0000-0002-5833-9264 ; 0000-0003-4356-2954 ; 0000-0001-9316-1222 ; 0000-0002-3455-2407</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10438396/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10438396/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,881,27901,27902,53766,53768</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37549288$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://ofb.hal.science/hal-04380627$$DView record in HAL$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>San-José, Adrià</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mayor, Pedro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Carvalho, Bruno</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>El Bizri, Hani R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Antunes, André Pinassi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Antunez Correa, Miguel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aquino, Rolando</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bodmer, Richard E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boubli, Jean P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Carvalho, Jr, Elildo A R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Campos-Silva, João Vitor</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Constantino, Pedro A L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>de Paula, Milton José</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Desbiez, Arnauld L J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fang, Tula</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gómez-Puerta, Luis A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Knoop, Simon B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Longin, Guillaume</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Morcatty, Thais Q</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Maranhão, Louise</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Massocato, Gabriel Favero</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Munari, Daniel P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nunes, André Valle</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Puertas, Pablo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Oliveira, Marcela A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pezzuti, Juarez C B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Richard-Hansen, Cécile</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Santos, Geovanna</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Valsecchi, João</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>von Mühlen, Eduardo M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bosmediano, John</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rodó, Xavier</creatorcontrib><title>Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia</title><title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS</title><addtitle>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</addtitle><description>Polycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode
is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca
) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE's key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of
. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies.</description><subject>Animal models</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Biodiversity and Ecology</subject><subject>Biological Sciences</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Disease Hotspot</subject><subject>Echinococcosis</subject><subject>Echinococcosis - epidemiology</subject><subject>Echinococcus</subject><subject>El Nino</subject><subject>El Nino-Southern Oscillation</subject><subject>Entropy</subject><subject>Environmental Sciences</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Hunting</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Maximum entropy</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>Southern Oscillation</subject><subject>Spatial 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(Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Animal Behavior Abstracts</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Calcium & Calcified Tissue Abstracts</collection><collection>Chemoreception Abstracts</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Neurosciences Abstracts</collection><collection>Nucleic Acids Abstracts</collection><collection>Oncogenes and Growth Factors Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL)</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>San-José, Adrià</au><au>Mayor, Pedro</au><au>Carvalho, Bruno</au><au>El Bizri, Hani R</au><au>Antunes, André Pinassi</au><au>Antunez Correa, Miguel</au><au>Aquino, Rolando</au><au>Bodmer, Richard E</au><au>Boubli, Jean P</au><au>Carvalho, Jr, Elildo A R</au><au>Campos-Silva, João Vitor</au><au>Constantino, Pedro A L</au><au>de Paula, Milton José</au><au>Desbiez, Arnauld L J</au><au>Fang, Tula</au><au>Gómez-Puerta, Luis A</au><au>Knoop, Simon B</au><au>Longin, Guillaume</au><au>Morcatty, Thais Q</au><au>Maranhão, Louise</au><au>Massocato, Gabriel Favero</au><au>Munari, Daniel P</au><au>Nunes, André Valle</au><au>Puertas, Pablo</au><au>Oliveira, Marcela A</au><au>Pezzuti, Juarez C B</au><au>Richard-Hansen, Cécile</au><au>Santos, Geovanna</au><au>Valsecchi, João</au><au>von Mühlen, Eduardo M</au><au>Bosmediano, John</au><au>Rodó, Xavier</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia</atitle><jtitle>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS</jtitle><addtitle>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</addtitle><date>2023-08-15</date><risdate>2023</risdate><volume>120</volume><issue>33</issue><spage>e2302661120</spage><epage>e2302661120</epage><pages>e2302661120-e2302661120</pages><issn>0027-8424</issn><eissn>1091-6490</eissn><abstract>Polycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode
is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca
) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE's key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of
. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>National Academy of Sciences</pub><pmid>37549288</pmid><doi>10.1073/pnas.2302661120</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5409-8336</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3022-3382</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4129-993X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5297-792X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1524-6292</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8777-2967</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4843-6180</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1258-6021</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7909-979X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1548-9131</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5968-6025</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4998-7216</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9353-791X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5988-4352</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0009-5770</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9138-0381</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4404-3486</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3232-290X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5833-9264</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4356-2954</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9316-1222</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3455-2407</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0027-8424 |
| ispartof | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2023-08, Vol.120 (33), p.e2302661120-e2302661120 |
| issn | 0027-8424 1091-6490 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_10438396 |
| source | MEDLINE; PubMed Central; Alma/SFX Local Collection; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry |
| subjects | Animal models Animals Biodiversity and Ecology Biological Sciences Climate change Disease Hotspot Echinococcosis Echinococcosis - epidemiology Echinococcus El Nino El Nino-Southern Oscillation Entropy Environmental Sciences Humans Hunting Infections Mathematical models Maximum entropy Risk Factors Southern Oscillation Spatial distribution Statistical analysis Viscera Wildlife Zoonoses Zoonoses - epidemiology |
| title | Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-02-08T12%3A08%3A15IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_pubme&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Climate%20determines%20transmission%20hotspots%20of%20Polycystic%20Echinococcosis,%20a%20life-threatening%20zoonotic%20disease,%20across%20Pan-Amazonia&rft.jtitle=Proceedings%20of%20the%20National%20Academy%20of%20Sciences%20-%20PNAS&rft.au=San-Jos%C3%A9,%20Adri%C3%A0&rft.date=2023-08-15&rft.volume=120&rft.issue=33&rft.spage=e2302661120&rft.epage=e2302661120&rft.pages=e2302661120-e2302661120&rft.issn=0027-8424&rft.eissn=1091-6490&rft_id=info:doi/10.1073/pnas.2302661120&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_pubme%3E2847748544%3C/proquest_pubme%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2852774773&rft_id=info:pmid/37549288&rfr_iscdi=true |