Testing the reliability of forecasting systems

The problem of statistically evaluating forecasting systems is revisited. The forecaster claims the forecasts to exhibit a certain nominal statistical behaviour; for instance, the forecasts provide the expected value (or certain quantiles) of the verification, conditional on the information availabl...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben

Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of applied statistics 2023, Vol.50 (1), p.106-130
1. Verfasser:	Bröcker, J.
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	environmental statistics Forecasting identifiability Quantiles reliability Reliability analysis Statistical analysis Statistical methods Statistical tests Verification
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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