The role of temporal distance on forecasting the difficulty of goal pursuits

The current research examined individuals' perceptions of difficulty regarding goal striving in the near and distant future. Study 1 tested the hypothesis that predictions decrease over increasing temporal distance. Participants forecasted how difficult several goal-related tasks would be at varying points in the future. Our hypothesis was mostly supported. Results from hierarchical linear modeling showed many statistically significant linear and quadratic effects of temporal distance on predictions within and across goal tasks. Moreover, all future time points were rated as easier compared to now, with medium to large differences in difficulty. In Study 2, participants forecasted the difficulty of pursuing a goal-related task two days away, and we followed up to assess actual difficulty. Participants' predictions were generally accurate. Goal commitment moderated accuracy, as individuals low (vs. high) in goal commitment underestimated (overestimated) difficulty. Overall, our results suggest that cognitions about future goal striving may affect momentary motivation and self-regulation.