Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

We study the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020. Calculations are done via an adaptive susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model featuring dynamical recuperation and propagation rates. We are able reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time with less than 5% error and also provide with short- and long-term predictions. The model can also be used to account for the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great accuracy. •SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020.•Adaptive susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model can reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time.•It is possible to predict the epidemic progression in the near future.