Development and validation of a sequential two-step algorithm for the screening of individuals with potential polycythaemia vera

In 2016, the WHO included haemoglobin values within normal ranges as a diagnostic criterion for Polycythaemia Vera (PV). Since then, concerns have arisen that a large number of patients are undergoing unnecessary screening for PV. To address this issue, we estimated the prevalence of JAK2 p.V617F in individuals with elevated haemoglobin or haematocrit and developed and validated a screening algorithm for PV. A total of 15,366 blood counts performed in seven non-consecutive days were reviewed, of which 1001 were selected for subsequent JAK2 p.V617F mutation screening. Eight (0.8%) new JAK2 p.V617F-mutated cases were detected. From ROC curves, a two-step algorithm was developed based on the optimal cut-off for the detection of the JAK2 p.V617F mutation. The algorithm was prospectively validated in an independent cohort of 15,298 blood counts. A total of 1595 (10.4%) cases met the criterion for haemoglobin or haematocrit, of whom 581 passed to step 2 (3.8% of the total). The JAK2 p.V617F mutation was detected in 7 of the 501 patients tested, which accounts for 0.04% of the total cohort and 0.4% of patients with erythrocytosis. In conclusion, this data show that our two-step algorithm improves the selection of candidates for JAK2 p.V617F testing.