Development of a calculator to establish indications to refer patients with lumbar degenerative disease for spinal surgery consultation

Low-back pain remains a common pathological entity in the Western population. We have found no data in the literature that assess whether, with correct physical examination and evaluation of simple x-rays of the spine, it is possible to diagnose patients who are highly likely to be candidates for lumbar spine surgery and thus reduce the care burden and resource consumption that this disorder entails. The aim of the study was to develop a user-friendly calculator that allows only patients who are strong candidates for surgical treatment to be referred for spinal surgery consultation. An observational and retrospective study that included all adult patients from the healthcare area of Talavera de la Reina (Toledo, Spain) with a clinical and/or radiological diagnosis of degenerative lumbar spine disease referred by other specialists over one calendar year to the spinal surgery unit to assess whether surgery was indicated after unsuccessful conservative treatment. All the patients were assessed under the same protocol with a follow-up of 6years, at the end of which we performed a check of those who had undergone lumber spine surgery. A total of 201 patients were studied and at the end of the 6-year follow-up, a total of 77 patients had been operated. Concordance of 70% was found between the indication for surgical treatment and the treatment received at the end of the follow-up. Therefore a logistic regression was performed in an attempt to predict the patients that could be referred to the spinal surgery units and from that a calculator was generated, which included the plain x-ray variable as an essential item, and which showed as statistically significant (P