Prediction of Fasting Plasma Glucose Status Using Anthropometric Measures for Diagnosing Type 2 Diabetes

It is well known that body fat distribution and obesity are important risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Prediction of type 2 diabetes using a combination of anthropometric measures remains a controversial issue. This study aims to predict the fasting plasma glucose (FPG) status that is used in the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes by a combination of various measures among Korean adults. A total of 4870 subjects (2955 females and 1915 males) participated in this study. Based on 37 anthropometric measures, we compared predictions of FPG status using individual versus combined measures using two machine-learning algorithms. The values of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the predictions by logistic regression and naive Bayes classifier based on the combination of measures were 0.741 and 0.739 in females, respectively, and were 0.687 and 0.686 in males, respectively. Our results indicate that prediction of FPG status using a combination of anthropometric measures was superior to individual measures alone in both females and males. We show that using balanced data of normal and high FPG groups can improve the prediction and reduce the intrinsic bias of the model toward the majority class.