Fading out of vole and predator cycles?
Northern voles and lemmings are famous for their spectacular multiannual population cycles with high amplitudes. Such cyclic vole populations in Scandinavia have shown an unexpected and marked long-term decline in density since the early 1970s, particularly with a marked shift to lower spring densit...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences Biological sciences, 2005-10, Vol.272 (1576), p.2045-2049 |
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| container_title | Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences |
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| creator | Hörnfeldt, Birger Hipkiss, Tim Eklund, Ulf |
| description | Northern voles and lemmings are famous for their spectacular multiannual population cycles with high amplitudes. Such cyclic vole populations in Scandinavia have shown an unexpected and marked long-term decline in density since the early 1970s, particularly with a marked shift to lower spring densities in the early 1980s. The vole decline, mainly characterized by a strongly decreased rate of change in numbers over winter, is associated with an increased occurrence of mild and wet winters brought about by a recent change in the North Atlantic Oscillation. This has led to a decrease in winter stability and has shortened the period with protective snow cover, the latter considered as an important prerequisite for the occurrence of multiannual, high-amplitude cycles in vole populations. Although the vole decline is predicted to be negative for predators' reproduction and abundance, empirical data showing this are rare. Here we show that the dynamics of a predator-prey system (Tengmalm's owl, Aegolius funereus, and voles), have in recent years gradually changed from 3-4 yr, high-amplitude cycles towards more or less annual fluctuations only. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1098/rspb.2005.3141 |
| format | Article |
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B, Biological sciences</title><addtitle>PROC R SOC B</addtitle><description>Northern voles and lemmings are famous for their spectacular multiannual population cycles with high amplitudes. Such cyclic vole populations in Scandinavia have shown an unexpected and marked long-term decline in density since the early 1970s, particularly with a marked shift to lower spring densities in the early 1980s. The vole decline, mainly characterized by a strongly decreased rate of change in numbers over winter, is associated with an increased occurrence of mild and wet winters brought about by a recent change in the North Atlantic Oscillation. This has led to a decrease in winter stability and has shortened the period with protective snow cover, the latter considered as an important prerequisite for the occurrence of multiannual, high-amplitude cycles in vole populations. Although the vole decline is predicted to be negative for predators' reproduction and abundance, empirical data showing this are rare. Here we show that the dynamics of a predator-prey system (Tengmalm's owl, Aegolius funereus, and voles), have in recent years gradually changed from 3-4 yr, high-amplitude cycles towards more or less annual fluctuations only.</description><subject>Animal nesting</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Arvicolinae - physiology</subject><subject>Autumn</subject><subject>Breeding</subject><subject>Changing Dynamics</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Depopulation</subject><subject>Food Chain</subject><subject>Long-Term Decline</subject><subject>North Atlantic Oscillation Change</subject><subject>Owls</subject><subject>Phase Diagrams</subject><subject>Population Density</subject><subject>Population Dynamics</subject><subject>Predator-Prey Cycles</subject><subject>Predators</subject><subject>Scandinavia</subject><subject>Scandinavian and Nordic Countries</subject><subject>Staple foods</subject><subject>Strigiformes - physiology</subject><subject>Voles</subject><subject>Winter</subject><issn>0962-8452</issn><issn>1471-2954</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2005</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkUtv1DAUhSMEokNhyw6UFV2gDH4_NtBSKEWqQEJQlleO48xkyMSDnbTMv8cho4FZAAvbss53j6_vybLHGM0x0upFiJtyThDic4oZvpPNMJO4IJqzu9kMaUEKxTg5yh7EuEIIaa74_ewIC6zT4rPs5MJUTbfI_dDnvs5vfOty01X5JrjK9D7kdmtbF189zO7Vpo3u0e48zr5cvP18fllcfXz3_vzsqrCC676QqhQKoTLtStZ1hSm2ArPKGKKsxchpR5Ti1lRYKkdLTjgTqC4NK2tnqaTH2fPJN966zVDCJjRrE7bgTQNvmusz8GEBw3oAKRhN9MuJTujaVdZ1fTDtQdGh0jVLWPgbwJxrpcfnnu0Mgv8-uNjDuonWta3pnB8iCCWoVIr9F8RSCE3l6DifQBt8jMHV-24wgjEyGCODMTIYI0sFT__8w298l1EC6AQEv02j97Zx_RZWfghduv7d9slUtYopxr0rRYhJjUnSi0lvYu9-7HUTvoGQVHK4VgwI_fDpUrym8DXxpxO_bBbL2yY4OGjn1-vWd30aNBBJ0oSlSO0wDvXQpkiqOlmQf1r47SbE8rCa_gQWfuV8</recordid><startdate>20051007</startdate><enddate>20051007</enddate><creator>Hörnfeldt, Birger</creator><creator>Hipkiss, Tim</creator><creator>Eklund, Ulf</creator><general>The Royal Society</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>ADTPV</scope><scope>AOWAS</scope><scope>D93</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20051007</creationdate><title>Fading out of vole and predator cycles?</title><author>Hörnfeldt, Birger ; Hipkiss, Tim ; Eklund, Ulf</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c659t-78b6800bb6887ffd131c614daa28cc10e9e2885cad178e3b525460fba4bfec373</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2005</creationdate><topic>Animal nesting</topic><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Arvicolinae - physiology</topic><topic>Autumn</topic><topic>Breeding</topic><topic>Changing Dynamics</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Depopulation</topic><topic>Food Chain</topic><topic>Long-Term Decline</topic><topic>North Atlantic Oscillation Change</topic><topic>Owls</topic><topic>Phase Diagrams</topic><topic>Population Density</topic><topic>Population Dynamics</topic><topic>Predator-Prey Cycles</topic><topic>Predators</topic><topic>Scandinavia</topic><topic>Scandinavian and Nordic Countries</topic><topic>Staple foods</topic><topic>Strigiformes - physiology</topic><topic>Voles</topic><topic>Winter</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Hörnfeldt, Birger</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hipkiss, Tim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Eklund, Ulf</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>SwePub</collection><collection>SwePub Articles</collection><collection>SWEPUB Umeå universitet</collection><jtitle>Proceedings of the Royal Society. 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The vole decline, mainly characterized by a strongly decreased rate of change in numbers over winter, is associated with an increased occurrence of mild and wet winters brought about by a recent change in the North Atlantic Oscillation. This has led to a decrease in winter stability and has shortened the period with protective snow cover, the latter considered as an important prerequisite for the occurrence of multiannual, high-amplitude cycles in vole populations. Although the vole decline is predicted to be negative for predators' reproduction and abundance, empirical data showing this are rare. 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| subjects | Animal nesting Animals Arvicolinae - physiology Autumn Breeding Changing Dynamics Climate Depopulation Food Chain Long-Term Decline North Atlantic Oscillation Change Owls Phase Diagrams Population Density Population Dynamics Predator-Prey Cycles Predators Scandinavia Scandinavian and Nordic Countries Staple foods Strigiformes - physiology Voles Winter |
| title | Fading out of vole and predator cycles? |
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