In the Wake of the Great Supply Chain Crisis of 2021-2022: Predicting the Future by Controlling the Future

Eric M. McCracken The specialty chemicals producers and their raw material suppliers, whether working in paint and coatings, adhesives and sealants, lubricants, personal care, or any other areas, could learn a lot from trophy-winning horse trainers. Because elite horse trainers understand that there is no "straight line" in training a horse to perform what the rider asks of it-every horse is different and requires a unique approach to its training. Yes, certain aspects of training are going to be the same for all horses, so linear, data-driven thinking-"If I give the horse 'signal X,' the horse will perform 'maneuver y"-is a reasonable approach. Because horses have unique personalities, however, this type of training only works to a point, at which time one either gives up attempting to train the horse to perform a new maneuver, or one changes to less orthodox training approaches, trying many different and seemingly unrelated training exercises to see if any of them will connect with the horse's understanding of the relationship between the rider's request and the horse's corresponding response. [...]far fewer new raw materials were introduced into commerce during that period of time. Among the broad array of raw material suppliers, distributors, and coatings producers with whom the author is in regular contact, most do not foresee significant supply chain disruptions during 2024, but everyone adds one or more of the following conditional phrases, "We don't see any significant supply issues, assuming that: * We do not have a significant and unexpected economic event in, or directly affecting, the U.S." * The War in Ukraine, the War between Israel and Hamas, the Houthi rebel activity in the Red Sea or the Chinese cause anything to disrupt the global