Using AI to find financial opportunity in chaos

Despite today's highly sophisticated statistical formulas and automated trading algorithms, luck continues to play a major role in how that investment plays out (Michael L. Hartzmark, "Luck Versus Forecast Ability: Determinants of Trader Performance in Futures Markets" The Journal of Busmess, January 1991). To do this right, the AI system must go beyond simple statistical analysis to fashion a more complete picture of business performance that takes into account the inherent market complexity and individual characteristics of each particular company of interest. What AI can do differently is create simulations based on a population of one to provide information on present and future performance under present and expected conditions, rather than just through a statistical analysis that extrapolates from past performance. In that role, he was chief architect of initiatives that won Syngenta the 2016 ANA Genius Award in Marketing Analytics and 2015 Franz Edelman prize for contributions in operations research and the management sciences.