Builders Group's Economist Believes No Turnaround Until 2011: 'We were building too many units. Now we have to underbuild to make up for the excess supply.'

In what may be the most dire forecast to date, especially from a spokesman for a major housing trade group, David Seiders of the National Association of Home Builders said earlier this month that it might not be until 2011 before the sagging new home market turns around. Seiders, the NAHB's chief economist, told a meeting of multifamily builders and developers that it will be three or four years before the oversupply of finished but unsold houses is worked off and housing starts move back to the 1.8 million to 1.9 million units a year trend line. The unsold inventory will be a pretty heavy drag on production, he said at the NAHB's recent Multifamily Pillars of the Industry Conference.