An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for estimating the number of vehicles for queue management at signalized intersections

► A new fuzzy logic-based approach for estimating the Number of Vehicles in a Detection Zone (NVDZ) is reported here. ► Here, detector occupancy data is used (instead of detector counts). ► Simulation studies, including robustness tests confirm proof-of-concept. ► The NVDZ estimation technique is mainly for queue management. Other applications include ramp metering and incident detection. ► The developed methodology has the potential to be of immediate use to other researchers and to professionals in the field. Queue management is a valuable but underutilized technique which could be used to minimize the negative impacts of queues during oversaturated traffic conditions. One of the main obstacles of applying queue management techniques along signalized arterials is the unavailability of a robust and sufficiently accurate method for measuring the number of vehicles approaching a signalized intersection. The method based on counting vehicles as they enter and exit a specific detection zone with check-in and check-out detectors is unreliable because of the likely systematic under or over counting and the resulting cumulative errors. This paper describes the application of the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in the development of a new fuzzy logic-based approach for estimating the Number of Vehicles in a Detection Zone (NVDZ) by using detector time-occupancy data (instead of detector counts). Microscopic simulation results are used to evaluate the accuracy of the NVDZ estimates. Tests were carried out to determine the transferability of a tuned Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and to check the sensitivity of the calibrated FIS to detection coverage, the location of the detection zone relative to the signalized (bottleneck) intersection, the length of the detection zone, and different signal timings at the bottleneck intersection. Results show that the NVDZ estimation based on fuzzy logic seems to be a feasible approach. Although the primary objective of developing the NVDZ estimation technique has been queue management, other applications such as ramp metering and incident detection could potentially use the same technique.