Agricultural intensification, rainfall patterns, and large waterbird breeding success in the extensively cultivated landscape of Uttar Pradesh, India

[Display omitted] ► Drivers of waterfowl persistence in agricultural areas are poorly understood. ► Breeding success of Sarus Cranes and Black-necked Storks was monitored over 8years. ► Breeding success improved with higher rainfall and better territory quality. ► Population declines were predicted with continued township development. ► Retaining farmland mosaics is vital for waterbirds notwithstanding rainfall patterns. In countries with high human populations, using agricultural areas as multifunctional systems to produce food for humans and retain wildlife may be an efficient conservation strategy for many species. Inclusion of natural habitat and species requirements on agricultural landscapes explicitly into planning processes are precluded by lack of information on drivers of species persistence. Climate change is an additional emerging complexity, and adaptation plans for agricultural landscapes are biased towards intensification to secure long-range food production. I examine the conservation potential of an agricultural landscape in two districts of Uttar Pradesh, north India where agricultural intensification and altered rainfall patterns are predicted to occur. I assess stressors affecting breeding success over eight years of two large waterbirds of conservation concern – Sarus Cranes and Black-necked Storks. Both species had high breeding success that improved with total rainfall and more wetlands in breeding territories. Agricultural and township expansions deteriorated territory quality and reduced breeding success. Sarus Crane populations were predicted to decline relatively rapidly if development activities continued to displace breeding pairs. Black-necked Storks appeared resilient over the long-term notwithstanding reduced breeding success in low-rainfall years. Waterbird nesting habitats (wetlands and trees) were retained in Uttar Pradesh as community lands by villages and by state government via legal provisions suggesting the utility of multiple conservation approaches. Incorporating species requirements explicitly, alongside traditional land use practices conducive for habitat conservation, into adaptation planning and conservation policy will be necessary to retain long-term multifunctionality of such agricultural landscapes.