Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis
Background This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy. Methods Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of gastroenterology 2011-09, Vol.46 (9), p.1111-1119 |
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creator | Hiramatsu, Naoki Kurosaki, Masayuki Sakamoto, Naoya Iwasaki, Manabu Sakamoto, Minoru Suzuki, Yoshiyuki Sugauchi, Fuminaka Tamori, Akihiro Kakinnuma, Sei Matsuura, Kentaro Izumi, Namiki |
description | Background
This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy.
Methods
Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group (
n
= 691) or an internal validation group (
n
= 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb |
doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00535-011-0412-z |
format | Article |
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This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy.
Methods
Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group (
n
= 691) or an internal validation group (
n
= 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb < 8.5 g/dl) were explored using data-mining analysis.
Results
Hb values at baseline, creatinine clearance (Ccr), and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 were used to build a decision-tree model, in which the patients were divided into 5 subgroups based on variable rates of severe anemia ranging from 0.4 to 11.8%. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed by the internal validation group (
r
2
= 0.96). The probability of severe anemia was high in patients whose Hb value was <14 g/dl before treatment (6.5%), especially (a) in those whose Ccr was <80 ml/min (11.8%) and (b) those whose Ccr was ≥80 ml/min but whose Hb concentration decline at week 2 was ≥2 g/dl (11.5%). The probability of severe anemia was low in the other patients (0.4–2.5%).
Conclusions
The decision-tree model that included Hb values at baseline, Ccr, and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 was useful for predicting the probability of severe anemia, and has the potential to support clinical decisions regarding early dose reduction of ribavirin.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0944-1174</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1435-5922</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00535-011-0412-z</identifier><identifier>PMID: 21681410</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Japan: Springer Japan</publisher><subject><![CDATA[Abdominal Surgery ; Adult ; Aged ; Anemia ; Anemia, Hemolytic - chemically induced ; Antiviral Agents - administration & dosage ; Antiviral Agents - adverse effects ; Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use ; Biliary Tract ; Biological response modifiers ; Care and treatment ; Cohort Studies ; Colorectal Surgery ; Data mining ; Decision Trees ; Development and progression ; Disease Progression ; Dose-Response Relationship, Drug ; Drug Therapy, Combination ; Female ; Gastroenterology ; Genotype ; Health aspects ; Hemoglobin ; Hepacivirus - genetics ; Hepatitis C ; Hepatitis C, Chronic - drug therapy ; Hepatitis C, Chronic - virology ; Hepatology ; Hospitals ; Humans ; Interferon alpha ; Interferon-alpha - administration & dosage ; Interferon-alpha - therapeutic use ; Male ; Medicine ; Medicine & Public Health ; Middle Aged ; Original Article—Liver ; Pancreas ; Polyethylene Glycols - administration & dosage ; Polyethylene Glycols - therapeutic use ; Recombinant Proteins - administration & dosage ; Recombinant Proteins - therapeutic use ; Reproducibility of Results ; Retrospective Studies ; Ribavirin ; Ribavirin - administration & dosage ; Ribavirin - adverse effects ; Ribavirin - therapeutic use ; Severity of Illness Index ; Surgical Oncology]]></subject><ispartof>Journal of gastroenterology, 2011-09, Vol.46 (9), p.1111-1119</ispartof><rights>Springer 2011</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2011 Springer</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c588t-e46b6c122435f9018e6d9a120f6592cc557876eda33ac380eb4374c08cf5cf503</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c588t-e46b6c122435f9018e6d9a120f6592cc557876eda33ac380eb4374c08cf5cf503</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00535-011-0412-z$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00535-011-0412-z$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>315,781,785,27929,27930,41493,42562,51324</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21681410$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Hiramatsu, Naoki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kurosaki, Masayuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sakamoto, Naoya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Iwasaki, Manabu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sakamoto, Minoru</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Suzuki, Yoshiyuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sugauchi, Fuminaka</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tamori, Akihiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kakinnuma, Sei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Matsuura, Kentaro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Izumi, Namiki</creatorcontrib><title>Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis</title><title>Journal of gastroenterology</title><addtitle>J Gastroenterol</addtitle><addtitle>J Gastroenterol</addtitle><description>Background
This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy.
Methods
Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group (
n
= 691) or an internal validation group (
n
= 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb < 8.5 g/dl) were explored using data-mining analysis.
Results
Hb values at baseline, creatinine clearance (Ccr), and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 were used to build a decision-tree model, in which the patients were divided into 5 subgroups based on variable rates of severe anemia ranging from 0.4 to 11.8%. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed by the internal validation group (
r
2
= 0.96). The probability of severe anemia was high in patients whose Hb value was <14 g/dl before treatment (6.5%), especially (a) in those whose Ccr was <80 ml/min (11.8%) and (b) those whose Ccr was ≥80 ml/min but whose Hb concentration decline at week 2 was ≥2 g/dl (11.5%). The probability of severe anemia was low in the other patients (0.4–2.5%).
Conclusions
The decision-tree model that included Hb values at baseline, Ccr, and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 was useful for predicting the probability of severe anemia, and has the potential to support clinical decisions regarding early dose reduction of ribavirin.</description><subject>Abdominal Surgery</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Anemia</subject><subject>Anemia, Hemolytic - chemically induced</subject><subject>Antiviral Agents - administration & dosage</subject><subject>Antiviral Agents - adverse effects</subject><subject>Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use</subject><subject>Biliary Tract</subject><subject>Biological response modifiers</subject><subject>Care and treatment</subject><subject>Cohort Studies</subject><subject>Colorectal Surgery</subject><subject>Data mining</subject><subject>Decision Trees</subject><subject>Development and progression</subject><subject>Disease Progression</subject><subject>Dose-Response Relationship, Drug</subject><subject>Drug Therapy, Combination</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Gastroenterology</subject><subject>Genotype</subject><subject>Health aspects</subject><subject>Hemoglobin</subject><subject>Hepacivirus - genetics</subject><subject>Hepatitis C</subject><subject>Hepatitis C, Chronic - drug therapy</subject><subject>Hepatitis C, Chronic - virology</subject><subject>Hepatology</subject><subject>Hospitals</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Interferon alpha</subject><subject>Interferon-alpha - administration & dosage</subject><subject>Interferon-alpha - therapeutic use</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>Medicine & Public Health</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Original Article—Liver</subject><subject>Pancreas</subject><subject>Polyethylene Glycols - administration & dosage</subject><subject>Polyethylene Glycols - therapeutic use</subject><subject>Recombinant Proteins - administration & dosage</subject><subject>Recombinant Proteins - therapeutic use</subject><subject>Reproducibility of Results</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>Ribavirin</subject><subject>Ribavirin - administration & dosage</subject><subject>Ribavirin - adverse effects</subject><subject>Ribavirin - therapeutic use</subject><subject>Severity of Illness Index</subject><subject>Surgical Oncology</subject><issn>0944-1174</issn><issn>1435-5922</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2011</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><recordid>eNp1UtuK1TAULaI4x9EP8EWCPvjUMTtN2tS34eANBvRBn0Oa7p6ToTeTHKHzSX6lu9NRUZQEAmuvtW9ZWfYU-AVwXr2KnKtC5Rwg5xJEfnMv24EkRNVC3M92vJYyB6jkWfYoxmvOoeBKP8zOBJQaJPBd9v1TwBTQpgHHxOaArXfJTyObOmZHHLwlcDoEjHFFm4XNeFh6m7BlfkwYOgyE234-2lw0bO5PkQXf2G8--JG5aWj8aG8zpiMGOy9shY8k8o4dcaZY8pHtCe7wtvRr1qLza7mcOkNqw_ZL9PFx9qCzfcQnd-959uXtm8_79_nVx3cf9pdXuVNapxxl2ZQOhKBFdDUHjWVbWxC8K2ktzilV6arE1haFdYXm2Miiko5r1ym6vDjPXm55afCvJ4zJDD467Hvax3SKpgYAJUSlifn8L-b1dArUbjRa16CV4iWRXmykg-3R0JRTCtatKc1lBVLpEnhNrIt_sOi09AduGrHzhP8hgE3gwhRjwM7MwQ82LAa4Wd1hNncYcodZ3WFuSPPsrt9TM2D7S_HTDkQQGyFSaDxg-D3Q_7P-AFsXx44</recordid><startdate>20110901</startdate><enddate>20110901</enddate><creator>Hiramatsu, Naoki</creator><creator>Kurosaki, Masayuki</creator><creator>Sakamoto, Naoya</creator><creator>Iwasaki, Manabu</creator><creator>Sakamoto, Minoru</creator><creator>Suzuki, Yoshiyuki</creator><creator>Sugauchi, Fuminaka</creator><creator>Tamori, Akihiro</creator><creator>Kakinnuma, Sei</creator><creator>Matsuura, Kentaro</creator><creator>Izumi, Namiki</creator><general>Springer Japan</general><general>Springer</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9-</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>M0R</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>7U9</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20110901</creationdate><title>Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis</title><author>Hiramatsu, Naoki ; Kurosaki, Masayuki ; Sakamoto, Naoya ; Iwasaki, Manabu ; Sakamoto, Minoru ; Suzuki, Yoshiyuki ; Sugauchi, Fuminaka ; Tamori, Akihiro ; Kakinnuma, Sei ; Matsuura, Kentaro ; Izumi, Namiki</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c588t-e46b6c122435f9018e6d9a120f6592cc557876eda33ac380eb4374c08cf5cf503</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2011</creationdate><topic>Abdominal Surgery</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Anemia</topic><topic>Anemia, Hemolytic - chemically induced</topic><topic>Antiviral Agents - administration & dosage</topic><topic>Antiviral Agents - adverse effects</topic><topic>Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use</topic><topic>Biliary Tract</topic><topic>Biological response modifiers</topic><topic>Care and treatment</topic><topic>Cohort Studies</topic><topic>Colorectal Surgery</topic><topic>Data mining</topic><topic>Decision Trees</topic><topic>Development and progression</topic><topic>Disease Progression</topic><topic>Dose-Response Relationship, Drug</topic><topic>Drug Therapy, Combination</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Gastroenterology</topic><topic>Genotype</topic><topic>Health aspects</topic><topic>Hemoglobin</topic><topic>Hepacivirus - genetics</topic><topic>Hepatitis C</topic><topic>Hepatitis C, Chronic - drug therapy</topic><topic>Hepatitis C, Chronic - virology</topic><topic>Hepatology</topic><topic>Hospitals</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Interferon alpha</topic><topic>Interferon-alpha - administration & dosage</topic><topic>Interferon-alpha - therapeutic use</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Medicine</topic><topic>Medicine & Public Health</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Original Article—Liver</topic><topic>Pancreas</topic><topic>Polyethylene Glycols - administration & dosage</topic><topic>Polyethylene Glycols - therapeutic use</topic><topic>Recombinant Proteins - administration & dosage</topic><topic>Recombinant Proteins - therapeutic use</topic><topic>Reproducibility of Results</topic><topic>Retrospective Studies</topic><topic>Ribavirin</topic><topic>Ribavirin - administration & dosage</topic><topic>Ribavirin - adverse effects</topic><topic>Ribavirin - therapeutic use</topic><topic>Severity of Illness Index</topic><topic>Surgical Oncology</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Hiramatsu, Naoki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kurosaki, Masayuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sakamoto, Naoya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Iwasaki, Manabu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sakamoto, Minoru</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Suzuki, Yoshiyuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sugauchi, Fuminaka</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tamori, Akihiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kakinnuma, Sei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Matsuura, Kentaro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Izumi, Namiki</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Consumer Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Consumer Health Database</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Journal of gastroenterology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Hiramatsu, Naoki</au><au>Kurosaki, Masayuki</au><au>Sakamoto, Naoya</au><au>Iwasaki, Manabu</au><au>Sakamoto, Minoru</au><au>Suzuki, Yoshiyuki</au><au>Sugauchi, Fuminaka</au><au>Tamori, Akihiro</au><au>Kakinnuma, Sei</au><au>Matsuura, Kentaro</au><au>Izumi, Namiki</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis</atitle><jtitle>Journal of gastroenterology</jtitle><stitle>J Gastroenterol</stitle><addtitle>J Gastroenterol</addtitle><date>2011-09-01</date><risdate>2011</risdate><volume>46</volume><issue>9</issue><spage>1111</spage><epage>1119</epage><pages>1111-1119</pages><issn>0944-1174</issn><eissn>1435-5922</eissn><abstract>Background
This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy.
Methods
Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group (
n
= 691) or an internal validation group (
n
= 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb < 8.5 g/dl) were explored using data-mining analysis.
Results
Hb values at baseline, creatinine clearance (Ccr), and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 were used to build a decision-tree model, in which the patients were divided into 5 subgroups based on variable rates of severe anemia ranging from 0.4 to 11.8%. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed by the internal validation group (
r
2
= 0.96). The probability of severe anemia was high in patients whose Hb value was <14 g/dl before treatment (6.5%), especially (a) in those whose Ccr was <80 ml/min (11.8%) and (b) those whose Ccr was ≥80 ml/min but whose Hb concentration decline at week 2 was ≥2 g/dl (11.5%). The probability of severe anemia was low in the other patients (0.4–2.5%).
Conclusions
The decision-tree model that included Hb values at baseline, Ccr, and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 was useful for predicting the probability of severe anemia, and has the potential to support clinical decisions regarding early dose reduction of ribavirin.</abstract><cop>Japan</cop><pub>Springer Japan</pub><pmid>21681410</pmid><doi>10.1007/s00535-011-0412-z</doi><tpages>9</tpages></addata></record> |
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source | MEDLINE; SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings |
subjects | Abdominal Surgery Adult Aged Anemia Anemia, Hemolytic - chemically induced Antiviral Agents - administration & dosage Antiviral Agents - adverse effects Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use Biliary Tract Biological response modifiers Care and treatment Cohort Studies Colorectal Surgery Data mining Decision Trees Development and progression Disease Progression Dose-Response Relationship, Drug Drug Therapy, Combination Female Gastroenterology Genotype Health aspects Hemoglobin Hepacivirus - genetics Hepatitis C Hepatitis C, Chronic - drug therapy Hepatitis C, Chronic - virology Hepatology Hospitals Humans Interferon alpha Interferon-alpha - administration & dosage Interferon-alpha - therapeutic use Male Medicine Medicine & Public Health Middle Aged Original Article—Liver Pancreas Polyethylene Glycols - administration & dosage Polyethylene Glycols - therapeutic use Recombinant Proteins - administration & dosage Recombinant Proteins - therapeutic use Reproducibility of Results Retrospective Studies Ribavirin Ribavirin - administration & dosage Ribavirin - adverse effects Ribavirin - therapeutic use Severity of Illness Index Surgical Oncology |
title | Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis |
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