Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis

Background This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy. Methods Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of gastroenterology 2011-09, Vol.46 (9), p.1111-1119
Hauptverfasser: Hiramatsu, Naoki, Kurosaki, Masayuki, Sakamoto, Naoya, Iwasaki, Manabu, Sakamoto, Minoru, Suzuki, Yoshiyuki, Sugauchi, Fuminaka, Tamori, Akihiro, Kakinnuma, Sei, Matsuura, Kentaro, Izumi, Namiki
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container_end_page 1119
container_issue 9
container_start_page 1111
container_title Journal of gastroenterology
container_volume 46
creator Hiramatsu, Naoki
Kurosaki, Masayuki
Sakamoto, Naoya
Iwasaki, Manabu
Sakamoto, Minoru
Suzuki, Yoshiyuki
Sugauchi, Fuminaka
Tamori, Akihiro
Kakinnuma, Sei
Matsuura, Kentaro
Izumi, Namiki
description Background This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy. Methods Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group ( n  = 691) or an internal validation group ( n  = 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb 
doi_str_mv 10.1007/s00535-011-0412-z
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Methods Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group ( n  = 691) or an internal validation group ( n  = 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb &lt; 8.5 g/dl) were explored using data-mining analysis. Results Hb values at baseline, creatinine clearance (Ccr), and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 were used to build a decision-tree model, in which the patients were divided into 5 subgroups based on variable rates of severe anemia ranging from 0.4 to 11.8%. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed by the internal validation group ( r 2  = 0.96). The probability of severe anemia was high in patients whose Hb value was &lt;14 g/dl before treatment (6.5%), especially (a) in those whose Ccr was &lt;80 ml/min (11.8%) and (b) those whose Ccr was ≥80 ml/min but whose Hb concentration decline at week 2 was ≥2 g/dl (11.5%). The probability of severe anemia was low in the other patients (0.4–2.5%). Conclusions The decision-tree model that included Hb values at baseline, Ccr, and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 was useful for predicting the probability of severe anemia, and has the potential to support clinical decisions regarding early dose reduction of ribavirin.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0944-1174</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1435-5922</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00535-011-0412-z</identifier><identifier>PMID: 21681410</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Japan: Springer Japan</publisher><subject><![CDATA[Abdominal Surgery ; Adult ; Aged ; Anemia ; Anemia, Hemolytic - chemically induced ; Antiviral Agents - administration & dosage ; Antiviral Agents - adverse effects ; Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use ; Biliary Tract ; Biological response modifiers ; Care and treatment ; Cohort Studies ; Colorectal Surgery ; Data mining ; Decision Trees ; Development and progression ; Disease Progression ; Dose-Response Relationship, Drug ; Drug Therapy, Combination ; Female ; Gastroenterology ; Genotype ; Health aspects ; Hemoglobin ; Hepacivirus - genetics ; Hepatitis C ; Hepatitis C, Chronic - drug therapy ; Hepatitis C, Chronic - virology ; Hepatology ; Hospitals ; Humans ; Interferon alpha ; Interferon-alpha - administration & dosage ; Interferon-alpha - therapeutic use ; Male ; Medicine ; Medicine & Public Health ; Middle Aged ; Original Article—Liver ; Pancreas ; Polyethylene Glycols - administration & dosage ; Polyethylene Glycols - therapeutic use ; Recombinant Proteins - administration & dosage ; Recombinant Proteins - therapeutic use ; Reproducibility of Results ; Retrospective Studies ; Ribavirin ; Ribavirin - administration & dosage ; Ribavirin - adverse effects ; Ribavirin - therapeutic use ; Severity of Illness Index ; Surgical Oncology]]></subject><ispartof>Journal of gastroenterology, 2011-09, Vol.46 (9), p.1111-1119</ispartof><rights>Springer 2011</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2011 Springer</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c588t-e46b6c122435f9018e6d9a120f6592cc557876eda33ac380eb4374c08cf5cf503</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c588t-e46b6c122435f9018e6d9a120f6592cc557876eda33ac380eb4374c08cf5cf503</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00535-011-0412-z$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00535-011-0412-z$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>315,781,785,27929,27930,41493,42562,51324</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21681410$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Hiramatsu, Naoki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kurosaki, Masayuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sakamoto, Naoya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Iwasaki, Manabu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sakamoto, Minoru</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Suzuki, Yoshiyuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sugauchi, Fuminaka</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tamori, Akihiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kakinnuma, Sei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Matsuura, Kentaro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Izumi, Namiki</creatorcontrib><title>Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis</title><title>Journal of gastroenterology</title><addtitle>J Gastroenterol</addtitle><addtitle>J Gastroenterol</addtitle><description>Background This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy. Methods Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group ( n  = 691) or an internal validation group ( n  = 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb &lt; 8.5 g/dl) were explored using data-mining analysis. Results Hb values at baseline, creatinine clearance (Ccr), and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 were used to build a decision-tree model, in which the patients were divided into 5 subgroups based on variable rates of severe anemia ranging from 0.4 to 11.8%. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed by the internal validation group ( r 2  = 0.96). The probability of severe anemia was high in patients whose Hb value was &lt;14 g/dl before treatment (6.5%), especially (a) in those whose Ccr was &lt;80 ml/min (11.8%) and (b) those whose Ccr was ≥80 ml/min but whose Hb concentration decline at week 2 was ≥2 g/dl (11.5%). The probability of severe anemia was low in the other patients (0.4–2.5%). Conclusions The decision-tree model that included Hb values at baseline, Ccr, and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 was useful for predicting the probability of severe anemia, and has the potential to support clinical decisions regarding early dose reduction of ribavirin.</description><subject>Abdominal Surgery</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Anemia</subject><subject>Anemia, Hemolytic - chemically induced</subject><subject>Antiviral Agents - administration &amp; dosage</subject><subject>Antiviral Agents - adverse effects</subject><subject>Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use</subject><subject>Biliary Tract</subject><subject>Biological response modifiers</subject><subject>Care and treatment</subject><subject>Cohort Studies</subject><subject>Colorectal Surgery</subject><subject>Data mining</subject><subject>Decision Trees</subject><subject>Development and progression</subject><subject>Disease Progression</subject><subject>Dose-Response Relationship, Drug</subject><subject>Drug Therapy, Combination</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Gastroenterology</subject><subject>Genotype</subject><subject>Health aspects</subject><subject>Hemoglobin</subject><subject>Hepacivirus - genetics</subject><subject>Hepatitis C</subject><subject>Hepatitis C, Chronic - drug therapy</subject><subject>Hepatitis C, Chronic - virology</subject><subject>Hepatology</subject><subject>Hospitals</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Interferon alpha</subject><subject>Interferon-alpha - administration &amp; 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Kurosaki, Masayuki ; Sakamoto, Naoya ; Iwasaki, Manabu ; Sakamoto, Minoru ; Suzuki, Yoshiyuki ; Sugauchi, Fuminaka ; Tamori, Akihiro ; Kakinnuma, Sei ; Matsuura, Kentaro ; Izumi, Namiki</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c588t-e46b6c122435f9018e6d9a120f6592cc557876eda33ac380eb4374c08cf5cf503</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2011</creationdate><topic>Abdominal Surgery</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Anemia</topic><topic>Anemia, Hemolytic - chemically induced</topic><topic>Antiviral Agents - administration &amp; dosage</topic><topic>Antiviral Agents - adverse effects</topic><topic>Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use</topic><topic>Biliary Tract</topic><topic>Biological response modifiers</topic><topic>Care and treatment</topic><topic>Cohort Studies</topic><topic>Colorectal Surgery</topic><topic>Data mining</topic><topic>Decision Trees</topic><topic>Development and progression</topic><topic>Disease Progression</topic><topic>Dose-Response Relationship, Drug</topic><topic>Drug Therapy, Combination</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Gastroenterology</topic><topic>Genotype</topic><topic>Health aspects</topic><topic>Hemoglobin</topic><topic>Hepacivirus - genetics</topic><topic>Hepatitis C</topic><topic>Hepatitis C, Chronic - drug therapy</topic><topic>Hepatitis C, Chronic - virology</topic><topic>Hepatology</topic><topic>Hospitals</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Interferon alpha</topic><topic>Interferon-alpha - administration &amp; 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Methods Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group ( n  = 691) or an internal validation group ( n  = 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb &lt; 8.5 g/dl) were explored using data-mining analysis. Results Hb values at baseline, creatinine clearance (Ccr), and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 were used to build a decision-tree model, in which the patients were divided into 5 subgroups based on variable rates of severe anemia ranging from 0.4 to 11.8%. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed by the internal validation group ( r 2  = 0.96). The probability of severe anemia was high in patients whose Hb value was &lt;14 g/dl before treatment (6.5%), especially (a) in those whose Ccr was &lt;80 ml/min (11.8%) and (b) those whose Ccr was ≥80 ml/min but whose Hb concentration decline at week 2 was ≥2 g/dl (11.5%). The probability of severe anemia was low in the other patients (0.4–2.5%). Conclusions The decision-tree model that included Hb values at baseline, Ccr, and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 was useful for predicting the probability of severe anemia, and has the potential to support clinical decisions regarding early dose reduction of ribavirin.</abstract><cop>Japan</cop><pub>Springer Japan</pub><pmid>21681410</pmid><doi>10.1007/s00535-011-0412-z</doi><tpages>9</tpages></addata></record>
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subjects Abdominal Surgery
Adult
Aged
Anemia
Anemia, Hemolytic - chemically induced
Antiviral Agents - administration & dosage
Antiviral Agents - adverse effects
Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use
Biliary Tract
Biological response modifiers
Care and treatment
Cohort Studies
Colorectal Surgery
Data mining
Decision Trees
Development and progression
Disease Progression
Dose-Response Relationship, Drug
Drug Therapy, Combination
Female
Gastroenterology
Genotype
Health aspects
Hemoglobin
Hepacivirus - genetics
Hepatitis C
Hepatitis C, Chronic - drug therapy
Hepatitis C, Chronic - virology
Hepatology
Hospitals
Humans
Interferon alpha
Interferon-alpha - administration & dosage
Interferon-alpha - therapeutic use
Male
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Middle Aged
Original Article—Liver
Pancreas
Polyethylene Glycols - administration & dosage
Polyethylene Glycols - therapeutic use
Recombinant Proteins - administration & dosage
Recombinant Proteins - therapeutic use
Reproducibility of Results
Retrospective Studies
Ribavirin
Ribavirin - administration & dosage
Ribavirin - adverse effects
Ribavirin - therapeutic use
Severity of Illness Index
Surgical Oncology
title Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis
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