Modeling the risk of an emerging pathogen entering the Canadian blood supply
BACKGROUND: As part of its risk management process, Canadian Blood Services (CBS) constructed mathematical models of how newly emerging pathogens might affect blood transfusion recipients. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: CBS convened an expert panel including medical, health economics, analytical, risk ma...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Transfusion (Philadelphia, Pa.) Pa.), 2010-12, Vol.50 (12), p.2592-2606 |
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| creator | Kleinman, Steven Cameron, Claire Custer, Brian Busch, Michael Katz, Louis Kralj, Boris Matheson, Ian Murphy, Ken Preiksaitis, Jutta Devine, Dana |
| description | BACKGROUND: As part of its risk management process, Canadian Blood Services (CBS) constructed mathematical models of how newly emerging pathogens might affect blood transfusion recipients.
STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: CBS convened an expert panel including medical, health economics, analytical, risk management, and insurance professionals to examine multiple data sources. The model for emerging pathogen risk included separate modules to calculate the frequency and severity of infections from transfusion‐transmitted agents that could cause either acute transient or chronic persistent infection. Important model input variables were annual number of components transfused, the presumed incidence and prevalence of a new agent, the time interval of recipient risk, recipient age and sex, projected recipient survival, rate of secondary infection, pathogen‐induced morbidity, and the associated medical costs of such morbidity.
RESULTS: In the 5‐year time frame considered in the model, it was estimated that approximately 3500 recipient infections (two‐SD range of 0 to 11,370 infections) could occur from an emerging pathogen that establishes a chronic infection in donors, with 60% of these due to red blood cell transfusion. The medical costs associated with recipient outcomes due to a catastrophic emerging pathogen could be lowered by 20% if an effective pathogen reduction method for either platelets or plasma were in place.
CONCLUSION: This modeling exercise offers a framework for other blood services to construct similar models. It also provides a useful way to model the implementation of new blood safety interventions (e.g., pathogen reduction) on emerging pathogen risk. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/j.1537-2995.2010.02724.x |
| format | Article |
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STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: CBS convened an expert panel including medical, health economics, analytical, risk management, and insurance professionals to examine multiple data sources. The model for emerging pathogen risk included separate modules to calculate the frequency and severity of infections from transfusion‐transmitted agents that could cause either acute transient or chronic persistent infection. Important model input variables were annual number of components transfused, the presumed incidence and prevalence of a new agent, the time interval of recipient risk, recipient age and sex, projected recipient survival, rate of secondary infection, pathogen‐induced morbidity, and the associated medical costs of such morbidity.
RESULTS: In the 5‐year time frame considered in the model, it was estimated that approximately 3500 recipient infections (two‐SD range of 0 to 11,370 infections) could occur from an emerging pathogen that establishes a chronic infection in donors, with 60% of these due to red blood cell transfusion. The medical costs associated with recipient outcomes due to a catastrophic emerging pathogen could be lowered by 20% if an effective pathogen reduction method for either platelets or plasma were in place.
CONCLUSION: This modeling exercise offers a framework for other blood services to construct similar models. It also provides a useful way to model the implementation of new blood safety interventions (e.g., pathogen reduction) on emerging pathogen risk.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0041-1132</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1537-2995</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/j.1537-2995.2010.02724.x</identifier><identifier>PMID: 20553433</identifier><identifier>CODEN: TRANAT</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Malden, USA: Blackwell Publishing Inc</publisher><subject><![CDATA[Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Anesthesia. Intensive care medicine. Transfusions. Cell therapy and gene therapy ; Biological and medical sciences ; Blood and lymphatic vessels ; Blood Banks - standards ; Blood Banks - statistics & numerical data ; Blood Banks - supply & distribution ; Blood Donors - statistics & numerical data ; Blood Donors - supply & distribution ; Blood Safety - standards ; Blood Safety - statistics & numerical data ; Blood Transfusion - standards ; Blood Transfusion - statistics & numerical data ; Blood-Borne Pathogens - isolation & purification ; Blood. Blood and plasma substitutes. Blood products. Blood cells. Blood typing. Plasmapheresis. Apheresis ; Canada ; Cardiology. Vascular system ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Diseases of the peripheral vessels. Diseases of the vena cava. Miscellaneous ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Infection - blood ; Infection - epidemiology ; Infection - etiology ; Infection - transmission ; Male ; Medical sciences ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; Pathogens ; Risk Assessment - methods ; Risk Factors ; Transfusion Reaction ; Transfusions. Complications. Transfusion reactions. Cell and gene therapy ; Young Adult]]></subject><ispartof>Transfusion (Philadelphia, Pa.), 2010-12, Vol.50 (12), p.2592-2606</ispartof><rights>2010 American Association of Blood Banks</rights><rights>2015 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>2010 American Association of Blood Banks.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4684-711ecb4dcfb574b9c2b1ab2295f0cbb645b9e3af48b436ac7a8cfe77702b96833</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4684-711ecb4dcfb574b9c2b1ab2295f0cbb645b9e3af48b436ac7a8cfe77702b96833</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Fj.1537-2995.2010.02724.x$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Fj.1537-2995.2010.02724.x$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=23618791$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20553433$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Kleinman, Steven</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cameron, Claire</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Custer, Brian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Busch, Michael</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Katz, Louis</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kralj, Boris</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Matheson, Ian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Murphy, Ken</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Preiksaitis, Jutta</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Devine, Dana</creatorcontrib><title>Modeling the risk of an emerging pathogen entering the Canadian blood supply</title><title>Transfusion (Philadelphia, Pa.)</title><addtitle>Transfusion</addtitle><description>BACKGROUND: As part of its risk management process, Canadian Blood Services (CBS) constructed mathematical models of how newly emerging pathogens might affect blood transfusion recipients.
STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: CBS convened an expert panel including medical, health economics, analytical, risk management, and insurance professionals to examine multiple data sources. The model for emerging pathogen risk included separate modules to calculate the frequency and severity of infections from transfusion‐transmitted agents that could cause either acute transient or chronic persistent infection. Important model input variables were annual number of components transfused, the presumed incidence and prevalence of a new agent, the time interval of recipient risk, recipient age and sex, projected recipient survival, rate of secondary infection, pathogen‐induced morbidity, and the associated medical costs of such morbidity.
RESULTS: In the 5‐year time frame considered in the model, it was estimated that approximately 3500 recipient infections (two‐SD range of 0 to 11,370 infections) could occur from an emerging pathogen that establishes a chronic infection in donors, with 60% of these due to red blood cell transfusion. The medical costs associated with recipient outcomes due to a catastrophic emerging pathogen could be lowered by 20% if an effective pathogen reduction method for either platelets or plasma were in place.
CONCLUSION: This modeling exercise offers a framework for other blood services to construct similar models. It also provides a useful way to model the implementation of new blood safety interventions (e.g., pathogen reduction) on emerging pathogen risk.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Anesthesia. Intensive care medicine. Transfusions. Cell therapy and gene therapy</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Blood and lymphatic vessels</subject><subject>Blood Banks - standards</subject><subject>Blood Banks - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Blood Banks - supply & distribution</subject><subject>Blood Donors - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Blood Donors - supply & distribution</subject><subject>Blood Safety - standards</subject><subject>Blood Safety - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Blood Transfusion - standards</subject><subject>Blood Transfusion - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Blood-Borne Pathogens - isolation & purification</subject><subject>Blood. Blood and plasma substitutes. Blood products. Blood cells. Blood typing. Plasmapheresis. Apheresis</subject><subject>Canada</subject><subject>Cardiology. Vascular system</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>Diseases of the peripheral vessels. Diseases of the vena cava. Miscellaneous</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Infant</subject><subject>Infant, Newborn</subject><subject>Infection - blood</subject><subject>Infection - epidemiology</subject><subject>Infection - etiology</subject><subject>Infection - transmission</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medical sciences</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Pathogens</subject><subject>Risk Assessment - methods</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>Transfusion Reaction</subject><subject>Transfusions. Complications. Transfusion reactions. Cell and gene therapy</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>0041-1132</issn><issn>1537-2995</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2010</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkE9P2zAYxq1p0yhsX2HKBe2U4r-xfeAwKv5JHUgTE0fLdt6UlDTJ7FRrv_2ctZQj-GLr9e-xH_0QygiekrTOllMimMyp1mJKcZpiKimfbj6gyeHiI5pgzElOCKNH6DjGJcaYakw-oyOKhWCcsQma_-xKaOp2kQ1PkIU6Pmddldk2gxWExTjv7fDULSBN2gHCCzmzrS3rxLmm68osrvu-2X5BnyrbRPi630_Q76vLh9lNPr-_vp39mOeeF4rnkhDwjpe-ckJypz11xDpKtaiwd67gwmlgtuLKcVZYL63yFUgpMXW6UIydoO-7d_vQ_VlDHMyqjh6axrbQraPRmPOCF0S9SSqiCs6xIIlUO9KHLsYAlelDvbJhawg2o3SzNKNbM7o1o3TzX7rZpOi3_Sdrt4LyEHyxnIDTPWCjt00VbOvr-MqxVFXqscP5jvtbN7B9dwHz8OtqPKV8vsvXcYDNIW_Dsykkk8I83l2bm8cLwaiS5o79A6SNq3w</recordid><startdate>201012</startdate><enddate>201012</enddate><creator>Kleinman, Steven</creator><creator>Cameron, Claire</creator><creator>Custer, Brian</creator><creator>Busch, Michael</creator><creator>Katz, Louis</creator><creator>Kralj, Boris</creator><creator>Matheson, Ian</creator><creator>Murphy, Ken</creator><creator>Preiksaitis, Jutta</creator><creator>Devine, Dana</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Inc</general><general>Wiley</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>7U1</scope><scope>7U2</scope><scope>C1K</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201012</creationdate><title>Modeling the risk of an emerging pathogen entering the Canadian blood supply</title><author>Kleinman, Steven ; Cameron, Claire ; Custer, Brian ; Busch, Michael ; Katz, Louis ; Kralj, Boris ; Matheson, Ian ; Murphy, Ken ; Preiksaitis, Jutta ; Devine, Dana</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c4684-711ecb4dcfb574b9c2b1ab2295f0cbb645b9e3af48b436ac7a8cfe77702b96833</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2010</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aged, 80 and over</topic><topic>Anesthesia. Intensive care medicine. Transfusions. Cell therapy and gene therapy</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Blood and lymphatic vessels</topic><topic>Blood Banks - standards</topic><topic>Blood Banks - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Blood Banks - supply & distribution</topic><topic>Blood Donors - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Blood Donors - supply & distribution</topic><topic>Blood Safety - standards</topic><topic>Blood Safety - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Blood Transfusion - standards</topic><topic>Blood Transfusion - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Blood-Borne Pathogens - isolation & purification</topic><topic>Blood. Blood and plasma substitutes. Blood products. Blood cells. Blood typing. Plasmapheresis. Apheresis</topic><topic>Canada</topic><topic>Cardiology. Vascular system</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Child, Preschool</topic><topic>Diseases of the peripheral vessels. Diseases of the vena cava. Miscellaneous</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Infant</topic><topic>Infant, Newborn</topic><topic>Infection - blood</topic><topic>Infection - epidemiology</topic><topic>Infection - etiology</topic><topic>Infection - transmission</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Medical sciences</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Models, Theoretical</topic><topic>Pathogens</topic><topic>Risk Assessment - methods</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><topic>Transfusion Reaction</topic><topic>Transfusions. Complications. Transfusion reactions. 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STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: CBS convened an expert panel including medical, health economics, analytical, risk management, and insurance professionals to examine multiple data sources. The model for emerging pathogen risk included separate modules to calculate the frequency and severity of infections from transfusion‐transmitted agents that could cause either acute transient or chronic persistent infection. Important model input variables were annual number of components transfused, the presumed incidence and prevalence of a new agent, the time interval of recipient risk, recipient age and sex, projected recipient survival, rate of secondary infection, pathogen‐induced morbidity, and the associated medical costs of such morbidity.
RESULTS: In the 5‐year time frame considered in the model, it was estimated that approximately 3500 recipient infections (two‐SD range of 0 to 11,370 infections) could occur from an emerging pathogen that establishes a chronic infection in donors, with 60% of these due to red blood cell transfusion. The medical costs associated with recipient outcomes due to a catastrophic emerging pathogen could be lowered by 20% if an effective pathogen reduction method for either platelets or plasma were in place.
CONCLUSION: This modeling exercise offers a framework for other blood services to construct similar models. It also provides a useful way to model the implementation of new blood safety interventions (e.g., pathogen reduction) on emerging pathogen risk.</abstract><cop>Malden, USA</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Inc</pub><pmid>20553433</pmid><doi>10.1111/j.1537-2995.2010.02724.x</doi><tpages>15</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Anesthesia. Intensive care medicine. Transfusions. Cell therapy and gene therapy Biological and medical sciences Blood and lymphatic vessels Blood Banks - standards Blood Banks - statistics & numerical data Blood Banks - supply & distribution Blood Donors - statistics & numerical data Blood Donors - supply & distribution Blood Safety - standards Blood Safety - statistics & numerical data Blood Transfusion - standards Blood Transfusion - statistics & numerical data Blood-Borne Pathogens - isolation & purification Blood. Blood and plasma substitutes. Blood products. Blood cells. Blood typing. Plasmapheresis. Apheresis Canada Cardiology. Vascular system Child Child, Preschool Diseases of the peripheral vessels. Diseases of the vena cava. Miscellaneous Female Humans Incidence Infant Infant, Newborn Infection - blood Infection - epidemiology Infection - etiology Infection - transmission Male Medical sciences Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Pathogens Risk Assessment - methods Risk Factors Transfusion Reaction Transfusions. Complications. Transfusion reactions. Cell and gene therapy Young Adult |
| title | Modeling the risk of an emerging pathogen entering the Canadian blood supply |
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