Climate change and its implications for water resources management in south Florida
Recent climate change projections suggest that negative impacts on flood control and water supply functions and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida are possible. An analysis of historical rainfall and temperature data of the Florida peninsula indicates that there w...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2011-05, Vol.25 (4), p.495-516 |
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| creator | Obeysekera, Jayantha Irizarry, Michelle Park, Joseph Barnes, Jenifer Dessalegne, Tibebe |
| description | Recent climate change projections suggest that negative impacts on flood control and water supply functions and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida are possible. An analysis of historical rainfall and temperature data of the Florida peninsula indicates that there were no discernible trends in both the long-term record and during the more recent period (1950–2007). A comparison of General Circulation Model (GCM) results for the 20th century with the historical data shows that many of the GCMs do not capture the statistical characteristics of regional rainfall and temperature regimes in south Florida. Investigation of historical sea level data at Key West finds evidence for an increase in the occurrence and variance of maximum sea level events for the period 1961–2008 in relation to 1913–1960, along with a shift of energy from shorter to longer timescales. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida in response to changing precipitation and evapotranspiration forcing, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale hydrologic and water management model is conducted. Model results suggest that projected climate change has potential to reduce the effectiveness of water supply and flood control operations for all water sectors. These findings emphasize that questions on the potential impacts of climate change need to be investigated with particular attention paid to the uncertainties of such projections. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00477-010-0418-8 |
| format | Article |
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An analysis of historical rainfall and temperature data of the Florida peninsula indicates that there were no discernible trends in both the long-term record and during the more recent period (1950–2007). A comparison of General Circulation Model (GCM) results for the 20th century with the historical data shows that many of the GCMs do not capture the statistical characteristics of regional rainfall and temperature regimes in south Florida. Investigation of historical sea level data at Key West finds evidence for an increase in the occurrence and variance of maximum sea level events for the period 1961–2008 in relation to 1913–1960, along with a shift of energy from shorter to longer timescales. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida in response to changing precipitation and evapotranspiration forcing, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale hydrologic and water management model is conducted. 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An analysis of historical rainfall and temperature data of the Florida peninsula indicates that there were no discernible trends in both the long-term record and during the more recent period (1950–2007). A comparison of General Circulation Model (GCM) results for the 20th century with the historical data shows that many of the GCMs do not capture the statistical characteristics of regional rainfall and temperature regimes in south Florida. Investigation of historical sea level data at Key West finds evidence for an increase in the occurrence and variance of maximum sea level events for the period 1961–2008 in relation to 1913–1960, along with a shift of energy from shorter to longer timescales. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida in response to changing precipitation and evapotranspiration forcing, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale hydrologic and water management model is conducted. 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Appl. in Environmental Science</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Original Paper</topic><topic>Physics</topic><topic>Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes</topic><topic>Projection</topic><topic>Rainfall</topic><topic>Sea level</topic><topic>Sensitivity analysis</topic><topic>Statistics for Engineering</topic><topic>Waste Water Technology</topic><topic>Water Management</topic><topic>Water Pollution Control</topic><topic>Water resources management</topic><topic>Water supplies</topic><topic>Water supply</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Obeysekera, Jayantha</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Irizarry, Michelle</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Park, Joseph</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Barnes, Jenifer</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dessalegne, Tibebe</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>DELNET Engineering & Technology Collection</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Materials Business File</collection><collection>Materials Research Database</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Risk Abstracts</collection><collection>Safety Science and Risk</collection><collection>Sustainability Science Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><jtitle>Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Obeysekera, Jayantha</au><au>Irizarry, Michelle</au><au>Park, Joseph</au><au>Barnes, Jenifer</au><au>Dessalegne, Tibebe</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Climate change and its implications for water resources management in south Florida</atitle><jtitle>Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment</jtitle><stitle>Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess</stitle><date>2011-05-01</date><risdate>2011</risdate><volume>25</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>495</spage><epage>516</epage><pages>495-516</pages><issn>1436-3240</issn><eissn>1436-3259</eissn><abstract>Recent climate change projections suggest that negative impacts on flood control and water supply functions and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida are possible. An analysis of historical rainfall and temperature data of the Florida peninsula indicates that there were no discernible trends in both the long-term record and during the more recent period (1950–2007). A comparison of General Circulation Model (GCM) results for the 20th century with the historical data shows that many of the GCMs do not capture the statistical characteristics of regional rainfall and temperature regimes in south Florida. Investigation of historical sea level data at Key West finds evidence for an increase in the occurrence and variance of maximum sea level events for the period 1961–2008 in relation to 1913–1960, along with a shift of energy from shorter to longer timescales. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida in response to changing precipitation and evapotranspiration forcing, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale hydrologic and water management model is conducted. Model results suggest that projected climate change has potential to reduce the effectiveness of water supply and flood control operations for all water sectors. These findings emphasize that questions on the potential impacts of climate change need to be investigated with particular attention paid to the uncertainties of such projections.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer-Verlag</pub><doi>10.1007/s00477-010-0418-8</doi><tpages>22</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 2011-05, Vol.25 (4), p.495-516 |
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| subjects | Aquatic Pollution Chemistry and Earth Sciences Climate change Computational Intelligence Computer Science Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Ecosystem restoration Environment Environmental impact Environmental restoration Evapotranspiration Flood control Hydrology Math. Appl. in Environmental Science Mathematical models Original Paper Physics Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes Projection Rainfall Sea level Sensitivity analysis Statistics for Engineering Waste Water Technology Water Management Water Pollution Control Water resources management Water supplies Water supply |
| title | Climate change and its implications for water resources management in south Florida |
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