Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms
Invasive species, biological control and climate change are driving demand for tools to estimate species' potential ranges in new environments. Flawed results from some tools are being used to inform policy and management in these fields. Independent validation of models is urgently needed so w...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Biological invasions 2009-06, Vol.11 (6), p.1231-1237 |
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| container_title | Biological invasions |
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| creator | Sutherst, R. W Bourne, A. S |
| description | Invasive species, biological control and climate change are driving demand for tools to estimate species' potential ranges in new environments. Flawed results from some tools are being used to inform policy and management in these fields. Independent validation of models is urgently needed so we compare the performance of the ubiquitous, logistic regression and the CLIMEX model in predicting recent range extensions of the livestock tick, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, in Africa. Both models have been applied to the tick so new, independent data can be used to test their ability to model non-equilibrium distributions. Logistical regression described the spatial data well but failed to predict the range extensions. CLIMEX correctly predicted the extensions without fitting the non-equilibrium data accurately. Our results question the validity of using descriptive, statistical models to predict changes in species ranges with translocation and climate change. More test cases that include independent validation are needed. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10530-008-9335-x |
| format | Article |
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| source | Springer Nature - Complete Springer Journals |
| subjects | Biodiversity Biological control Biomedical and Life Sciences Boophilus microplus Climate change climate models CLIMEX model Conservation biology Developmental Biology ecological invasion Ecology Freshwater & Marine Ecology geographical distribution Invasive species Ixodidae Life Sciences Livestock model validation Nonnative species Original Paper Plant Sciences prediction range extension Regression analysis Rhipicephalus Statistical models ticks Translocation |
| title | Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms |
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