Weather sensitive method for short term load forecasting in Electric Power Utility of Serbia
This paper presents a regression-based adaptive weather sensitive short-term load-forecasting algorithm, which has been developed and implemented in Electric Power Utility of Serbia. The proposed methodology consists of two main steps. The total daily energy is independently forecasted in the first...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | IEEE transactions on power systems 2003-11, Vol.18 (4), p.1581-1586 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext bestellen |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 1586 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 4 |
| container_start_page | 1581 |
| container_title | IEEE transactions on power systems |
| container_volume | 18 |
| creator | Ruzic, S. Vuckovic, A. Nikolic, N. |
| description | This paper presents a regression-based adaptive weather sensitive short-term load-forecasting algorithm, which has been developed and implemented in Electric Power Utility of Serbia. The proposed methodology consists of two main steps. The total daily energy is independently forecasted in the first step while hourly loads are predicted in the second step. All model parameters are automatically calculated and updated using realized data in the identification period. This period is a set of patterns from the database with weather and load conditions similar to conditions, which are expected, in the forecasted day. The Euclidean distance is used as a measure of similarity. The programming package based on the methodology presented in the paper has been used in the EPS to forecast 24-h loads one to seven days ahead since 1991. Results obtained in exhausted case studies are presented, analyzed, and compared with other results reported in literature. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1109/TPWRS.2003.811172 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_RIE</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_883039208</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><ieee_id>1245586</ieee_id><sourcerecordid>883039208</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c432t-8f10bd5ba751bd3ab0ae0aab5514a8a90ac17a32e7b5d06fc4a6b0ce8da6a5f3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqFkU1r3DAQhkVJoZu0P6D0InJoTt6MLMuWjiXkCwIJ3S25FMxYHmcVvFYiaRvy76PsFgo5NKeBd56ZYXgY-ypgLgSY4-XN7c_FvASQcy2EaMoPbCaU0gXUjdljM9BaFdoo-MT2Y7wHgDo3Zuz3LWFaUeCRpuiS-0N8TWnlez74HK58SDxRWPPR4zYjizG56Y67iZ-OZFNwlt_4p7ziV3KjS8_cD3xBoXP4mX0ccIz05W89YMuz0-XJRXF1fX558uOqsJUsU6EHAV2vOmyU6HqJHSABYqeUqFCjAbSiQVlS06ke6sFWWHdgSfdYoxrkATvarX0I_nFDMbVrFy2NI07kN7HVWoI0JehMfv8vWRowyoB8H9SNrGtTZfDwDXjvN2HK3-azVanyZciQ2EE2-BgDDe1DcGsMz62A9lVfu9XXvuprd_ryzLfdjCOif3xZZam1fAHjfJeP</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>884253030</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Weather sensitive method for short term load forecasting in Electric Power Utility of Serbia</title><source>IEEE Electronic Library (IEL)</source><creator>Ruzic, S. ; Vuckovic, A. ; Nikolic, N.</creator><creatorcontrib>Ruzic, S. ; Vuckovic, A. ; Nikolic, N.</creatorcontrib><description>This paper presents a regression-based adaptive weather sensitive short-term load-forecasting algorithm, which has been developed and implemented in Electric Power Utility of Serbia. The proposed methodology consists of two main steps. The total daily energy is independently forecasted in the first step while hourly loads are predicted in the second step. All model parameters are automatically calculated and updated using realized data in the identification period. This period is a set of patterns from the database with weather and load conditions similar to conditions, which are expected, in the forecasted day. The Euclidean distance is used as a measure of similarity. The programming package based on the methodology presented in the paper has been used in the EPS to forecast 24-h loads one to seven days ahead since 1991. Results obtained in exhausted case studies are presented, analyzed, and compared with other results reported in literature.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0885-8950</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1558-0679</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2003.811172</identifier><identifier>CODEN: ITPSEG</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New York: IEEE</publisher><subject>Economic forecasting ; Load forecasting ; Packaging ; Power system modeling ; Power system planning ; Power system reliability ; Power system security ; Predictive models ; Weather forecasting ; Wind forecasting</subject><ispartof>IEEE transactions on power systems, 2003-11, Vol.18 (4), p.1581-1586</ispartof><rights>Copyright The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) 2003</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c432t-8f10bd5ba751bd3ab0ae0aab5514a8a90ac17a32e7b5d06fc4a6b0ce8da6a5f3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c432t-8f10bd5ba751bd3ab0ae0aab5514a8a90ac17a32e7b5d06fc4a6b0ce8da6a5f3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/1245586$$EHTML$$P50$$Gieee$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,793,27905,27906,54739</link.rule.ids><linktorsrc>$$Uhttps://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/1245586$$EView_record_in_IEEE$$FView_record_in_$$GIEEE</linktorsrc></links><search><creatorcontrib>Ruzic, S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vuckovic, A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nikolic, N.</creatorcontrib><title>Weather sensitive method for short term load forecasting in Electric Power Utility of Serbia</title><title>IEEE transactions on power systems</title><addtitle>TPWRS</addtitle><description>This paper presents a regression-based adaptive weather sensitive short-term load-forecasting algorithm, which has been developed and implemented in Electric Power Utility of Serbia. The proposed methodology consists of two main steps. The total daily energy is independently forecasted in the first step while hourly loads are predicted in the second step. All model parameters are automatically calculated and updated using realized data in the identification period. This period is a set of patterns from the database with weather and load conditions similar to conditions, which are expected, in the forecasted day. The Euclidean distance is used as a measure of similarity. The programming package based on the methodology presented in the paper has been used in the EPS to forecast 24-h loads one to seven days ahead since 1991. Results obtained in exhausted case studies are presented, analyzed, and compared with other results reported in literature.</description><subject>Economic forecasting</subject><subject>Load forecasting</subject><subject>Packaging</subject><subject>Power system modeling</subject><subject>Power system planning</subject><subject>Power system reliability</subject><subject>Power system security</subject><subject>Predictive models</subject><subject>Weather forecasting</subject><subject>Wind forecasting</subject><issn>0885-8950</issn><issn>1558-0679</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2003</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>RIE</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkU1r3DAQhkVJoZu0P6D0InJoTt6MLMuWjiXkCwIJ3S25FMxYHmcVvFYiaRvy76PsFgo5NKeBd56ZYXgY-ypgLgSY4-XN7c_FvASQcy2EaMoPbCaU0gXUjdljM9BaFdoo-MT2Y7wHgDo3Zuz3LWFaUeCRpuiS-0N8TWnlez74HK58SDxRWPPR4zYjizG56Y67iZ-OZFNwlt_4p7ziV3KjS8_cD3xBoXP4mX0ccIz05W89YMuz0-XJRXF1fX558uOqsJUsU6EHAV2vOmyU6HqJHSABYqeUqFCjAbSiQVlS06ke6sFWWHdgSfdYoxrkATvarX0I_nFDMbVrFy2NI07kN7HVWoI0JehMfv8vWRowyoB8H9SNrGtTZfDwDXjvN2HK3-azVanyZciQ2EE2-BgDDe1DcGsMz62A9lVfu9XXvuprd_ryzLfdjCOif3xZZam1fAHjfJeP</recordid><startdate>20031101</startdate><enddate>20031101</enddate><creator>Ruzic, S.</creator><creator>Vuckovic, A.</creator><creator>Nikolic, N.</creator><general>IEEE</general><general>The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)</general><scope>RIA</scope><scope>RIE</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SP</scope><scope>7TB</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>KL.</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20031101</creationdate><title>Weather sensitive method for short term load forecasting in Electric Power Utility of Serbia</title><author>Ruzic, S. ; Vuckovic, A. ; Nikolic, N.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c432t-8f10bd5ba751bd3ab0ae0aab5514a8a90ac17a32e7b5d06fc4a6b0ce8da6a5f3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2003</creationdate><topic>Economic forecasting</topic><topic>Load forecasting</topic><topic>Packaging</topic><topic>Power system modeling</topic><topic>Power system planning</topic><topic>Power system reliability</topic><topic>Power system security</topic><topic>Predictive models</topic><topic>Weather forecasting</topic><topic>Wind forecasting</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Ruzic, S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vuckovic, A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nikolic, N.</creatorcontrib><collection>IEEE All-Society Periodicals Package (ASPP) 1998-Present</collection><collection>IEEE Electronic Library (IEL)</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Electronics & Communications Abstracts</collection><collection>Mechanical & Transportation Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><jtitle>IEEE transactions on power systems</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext_linktorsrc</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Ruzic, S.</au><au>Vuckovic, A.</au><au>Nikolic, N.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Weather sensitive method for short term load forecasting in Electric Power Utility of Serbia</atitle><jtitle>IEEE transactions on power systems</jtitle><stitle>TPWRS</stitle><date>2003-11-01</date><risdate>2003</risdate><volume>18</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>1581</spage><epage>1586</epage><pages>1581-1586</pages><issn>0885-8950</issn><eissn>1558-0679</eissn><coden>ITPSEG</coden><abstract>This paper presents a regression-based adaptive weather sensitive short-term load-forecasting algorithm, which has been developed and implemented in Electric Power Utility of Serbia. The proposed methodology consists of two main steps. The total daily energy is independently forecasted in the first step while hourly loads are predicted in the second step. All model parameters are automatically calculated and updated using realized data in the identification period. This period is a set of patterns from the database with weather and load conditions similar to conditions, which are expected, in the forecasted day. The Euclidean distance is used as a measure of similarity. The programming package based on the methodology presented in the paper has been used in the EPS to forecast 24-h loads one to seven days ahead since 1991. Results obtained in exhausted case studies are presented, analyzed, and compared with other results reported in literature.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>IEEE</pub><doi>10.1109/TPWRS.2003.811172</doi><tpages>6</tpages></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| identifier | ISSN: 0885-8950 |
| ispartof | IEEE transactions on power systems, 2003-11, Vol.18 (4), p.1581-1586 |
| issn | 0885-8950 1558-0679 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_883039208 |
| source | IEEE Electronic Library (IEL) |
| subjects | Economic forecasting Load forecasting Packaging Power system modeling Power system planning Power system reliability Power system security Predictive models Weather forecasting Wind forecasting |
| title | Weather sensitive method for short term load forecasting in Electric Power Utility of Serbia |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-18T06%3A51%3A23IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_RIE&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Weather%20sensitive%20method%20for%20short%20term%20load%20forecasting%20in%20Electric%20Power%20Utility%20of%20Serbia&rft.jtitle=IEEE%20transactions%20on%20power%20systems&rft.au=Ruzic,%20S.&rft.date=2003-11-01&rft.volume=18&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=1581&rft.epage=1586&rft.pages=1581-1586&rft.issn=0885-8950&rft.eissn=1558-0679&rft.coden=ITPSEG&rft_id=info:doi/10.1109/TPWRS.2003.811172&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_RIE%3E883039208%3C/proquest_RIE%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=884253030&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_ieee_id=1245586&rfr_iscdi=true |