Integrating Fossil Preservation Biases in the Selection of Calibrations for Molecular Divergence Time Estimation

The selection of fossil data to use as calibration age priors in molecular divergence time estimates inherently links neontological methods with paleontological theory. However, few neontological studies have taken into account the possibility of a taphonomic bias in the fossil record when developing approaches to fossil calibration selection. The Sppil-Rongis effect may bias the first appearance of a lineage toward the recent causing most objective calibration selection approaches to erroneously exclude appropriate calibrations or to incorporate multiple calibrations that are too young to accurately represent the divergence times of target lineages. Using turtles as a case study, we develop a Bayesian extension to the fossil selection approach developed by Marshall (2008. A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibrations points. Am. Nat. 171: 726-742) that takes into account this taphonomic bias. Our method has the advantage of identifying calibrations that may bias age estimates to be too recent while incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic parameter estimates such as tree topology and branch lengths. Additionally, this method is easily adapted to assess the consistency of potential calibrations to any one calibration in the candidate pool.