Patient and oncologist estimates of survival in advanced cancer patients
Objective: There is little information about the accuracy of patient perceptions of their life expectancy. Here, we compare patient perceptions of their outlook and their oncologist's estimates of life expectancy to actual survival. Methods: The Unmet Needs Study recruited patients with metasta...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Psycho-oncology (Chichester, England) England), 2011-02, Vol.20 (2), p.213-218 |
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| creator | Kao, Steven C. H. Butow, Phyllis Bray, Victoria Clarke, Stephen J. Vardy, Janette |
| description | Objective: There is little information about the accuracy of patient perceptions of their life expectancy. Here, we compare patient perceptions of their outlook and their oncologist's estimates of life expectancy to actual survival.
Methods: The Unmet Needs Study recruited patients with metastatic cancer. Oncologists were asked to estimate patient survival as: (1) weeks; (2) months; (3) |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/pon.1727 |
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Methods: The Unmet Needs Study recruited patients with metastatic cancer. Oncologists were asked to estimate patient survival as: (1) weeks; (2) months; (3) <1 year; (4)<2 years; and (5) >2 years. Patients were asked to estimate their outlook on a numerical scale from 1–7. Patient and oncologist estimates were compared with actual survival.
Results: Complete survival data were available for 50 patients: median age 63.5 years; 48% male; tumor types: 32% colorectal, 24% lung, 10% upper gastrointestinal cancer, 12% unknown primary; and median survival 6.8 months. The oncologists were 32% accurate in predicting survival and overestimated survival 42% of the time (weighted kappa=0.34). The correlation between self‐reported patient outlook and survival was modest (Spearman's rho=0.36, p=0.01). The median survival for categories of outlook of 1–3, 4–5, and 6–7 were 4.4, 5.4, and 14.8 months, respectively (p=0.01). Overseas‐born patient was the only independent predictor for the oncologists' accurate estimates (p=0.01).
Conclusions: Oncologists were relatively poor at predicting survival and tended to be optimistic in their prognostication. The probability of survival significantly decreased with worse self‐reported patient outlook. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1057-9249</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1099-1611</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/pon.1727</identifier><identifier>PMID: 20878829</identifier><identifier>CODEN: POJCEE</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</publisher><subject>Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cancer ; end-of-life ; Female ; Forecasting ; Gastric cancer ; Gastrointestinal diseases ; Humans ; Kaplan-Meier Estimate ; Life Expectancy ; Male ; Medical Oncology ; Metastatic cancer ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasms - mortality ; Neoplasms - psychology ; Oncologists ; Oncology ; Patients ; Perceptions ; Physician-Patient Relations ; Physicians ; Prognosis ; prognostication ; Self Report ; Sons ; survival ; Survival analysis ; Survival Rate</subject><ispartof>Psycho-oncology (Chichester, England), 2011-02, Vol.20 (2), p.213-218</ispartof><rights>Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</rights><rights>Copyright John Wiley and Sons, Limited Feb 2011</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5157-5dcb00d3fd4ad8101b65c7b9a8f8a675357caeebacc30a75dfefe4393d35f7643</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5157-5dcb00d3fd4ad8101b65c7b9a8f8a675357caeebacc30a75dfefe4393d35f7643</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2Fpon.1727$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2Fpon.1727$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>315,782,786,1419,27931,27932,31006,31007,45581,45582</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20878829$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Kao, Steven C. H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Butow, Phyllis</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bray, Victoria</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clarke, Stephen J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vardy, Janette</creatorcontrib><title>Patient and oncologist estimates of survival in advanced cancer patients</title><title>Psycho-oncology (Chichester, England)</title><addtitle>Psycho-Oncology</addtitle><description>Objective: There is little information about the accuracy of patient perceptions of their life expectancy. Here, we compare patient perceptions of their outlook and their oncologist's estimates of life expectancy to actual survival.
Methods: The Unmet Needs Study recruited patients with metastatic cancer. Oncologists were asked to estimate patient survival as: (1) weeks; (2) months; (3) <1 year; (4)<2 years; and (5) >2 years. Patients were asked to estimate their outlook on a numerical scale from 1–7. Patient and oncologist estimates were compared with actual survival.
Results: Complete survival data were available for 50 patients: median age 63.5 years; 48% male; tumor types: 32% colorectal, 24% lung, 10% upper gastrointestinal cancer, 12% unknown primary; and median survival 6.8 months. The oncologists were 32% accurate in predicting survival and overestimated survival 42% of the time (weighted kappa=0.34). The correlation between self‐reported patient outlook and survival was modest (Spearman's rho=0.36, p=0.01). The median survival for categories of outlook of 1–3, 4–5, and 6–7 were 4.4, 5.4, and 14.8 months, respectively (p=0.01). Overseas‐born patient was the only independent predictor for the oncologists' accurate estimates (p=0.01).
Conclusions: Oncologists were relatively poor at predicting survival and tended to be optimistic in their prognostication. The probability of survival significantly decreased with worse self‐reported patient outlook. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</description><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Cancer</subject><subject>end-of-life</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Gastric cancer</subject><subject>Gastrointestinal diseases</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Kaplan-Meier Estimate</subject><subject>Life Expectancy</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medical Oncology</subject><subject>Metastatic cancer</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Neoplasms - mortality</subject><subject>Neoplasms - psychology</subject><subject>Oncologists</subject><subject>Oncology</subject><subject>Patients</subject><subject>Perceptions</subject><subject>Physician-Patient Relations</subject><subject>Physicians</subject><subject>Prognosis</subject><subject>prognostication</subject><subject>Self Report</subject><subject>Sons</subject><subject>survival</subject><subject>Survival analysis</subject><subject>Survival Rate</subject><issn>1057-9249</issn><issn>1099-1611</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2011</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>7QJ</sourceid><recordid>eNqN0ctKxDAUBuAginfwCSS40U01l-a2FNFRERVRXIY0SaXaacakHfXtzTCjC0F0dbL48nOSH4AdjA4xQuRoErpDLIhYAusYKVVgjvHy7MxEoUip1sBGSs8IZaz4KlgjSAopiVoH57emb3zXQ9M5GDob2vDUpB761Ddj0_sEQw3TEKfN1LSw6aBxU9NZ76CdjQgn8_tpC6zUpk1-ezE3wcPZ6f3JeXF1M7o4Ob4qLMN5G-ZshZCjtSuNkxjhijMrKmVkLQ0XjDJhjfeVsZYiI5irfe1LqqijrBa8pJtgf547ieF1yGvqcZOsb1vT-TAkLbkkBBNE_yEZKWmp-N-ylJQggnCWez_kcxhilx-ckeIMl4pldDBHNoaUoq_1JObPjB8aIz3rS-e-9KyvTHcXeUM19u4bfhWUQTEHb03rP34N0rc314vAhc8l-vdvb-KL5oIKph-vR1rkVe_OLkea0U8Sc60Z</recordid><startdate>201102</startdate><enddate>201102</enddate><creator>Kao, Steven C. H.</creator><creator>Butow, Phyllis</creator><creator>Bray, Victoria</creator><creator>Clarke, Stephen J.</creator><creator>Vardy, Janette</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</general><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QJ</scope><scope>ASE</scope><scope>FPQ</scope><scope>K6X</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201102</creationdate><title>Patient and oncologist estimates of survival in advanced cancer patients</title><author>Kao, Steven C. H. ; Butow, Phyllis ; Bray, Victoria ; Clarke, Stephen J. ; Vardy, Janette</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c5157-5dcb00d3fd4ad8101b65c7b9a8f8a675357caeebacc30a75dfefe4393d35f7643</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2011</creationdate><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aged, 80 and over</topic><topic>Cancer</topic><topic>end-of-life</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>Gastric cancer</topic><topic>Gastrointestinal diseases</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Kaplan-Meier Estimate</topic><topic>Life Expectancy</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Medical Oncology</topic><topic>Metastatic cancer</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Neoplasms - mortality</topic><topic>Neoplasms - psychology</topic><topic>Oncologists</topic><topic>Oncology</topic><topic>Patients</topic><topic>Perceptions</topic><topic>Physician-Patient Relations</topic><topic>Physicians</topic><topic>Prognosis</topic><topic>prognostication</topic><topic>Self Report</topic><topic>Sons</topic><topic>survival</topic><topic>Survival analysis</topic><topic>Survival Rate</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Kao, Steven C. H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Butow, Phyllis</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bray, Victoria</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clarke, Stephen J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vardy, Janette</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA)</collection><collection>British Nursing Index</collection><collection>British Nursing Index (BNI) (1985 to Present)</collection><collection>British Nursing Index</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Psycho-oncology (Chichester, England)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Kao, Steven C. H.</au><au>Butow, Phyllis</au><au>Bray, Victoria</au><au>Clarke, Stephen J.</au><au>Vardy, Janette</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Patient and oncologist estimates of survival in advanced cancer patients</atitle><jtitle>Psycho-oncology (Chichester, England)</jtitle><addtitle>Psycho-Oncology</addtitle><date>2011-02</date><risdate>2011</risdate><volume>20</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>213</spage><epage>218</epage><pages>213-218</pages><issn>1057-9249</issn><eissn>1099-1611</eissn><coden>POJCEE</coden><abstract>Objective: There is little information about the accuracy of patient perceptions of their life expectancy. Here, we compare patient perceptions of their outlook and their oncologist's estimates of life expectancy to actual survival.
Methods: The Unmet Needs Study recruited patients with metastatic cancer. Oncologists were asked to estimate patient survival as: (1) weeks; (2) months; (3) <1 year; (4)<2 years; and (5) >2 years. Patients were asked to estimate their outlook on a numerical scale from 1–7. Patient and oncologist estimates were compared with actual survival.
Results: Complete survival data were available for 50 patients: median age 63.5 years; 48% male; tumor types: 32% colorectal, 24% lung, 10% upper gastrointestinal cancer, 12% unknown primary; and median survival 6.8 months. The oncologists were 32% accurate in predicting survival and overestimated survival 42% of the time (weighted kappa=0.34). The correlation between self‐reported patient outlook and survival was modest (Spearman's rho=0.36, p=0.01). The median survival for categories of outlook of 1–3, 4–5, and 6–7 were 4.4, 5.4, and 14.8 months, respectively (p=0.01). Overseas‐born patient was the only independent predictor for the oncologists' accurate estimates (p=0.01).
Conclusions: Oncologists were relatively poor at predicting survival and tended to be optimistic in their prognostication. The probability of survival significantly decreased with worse self‐reported patient outlook. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</abstract><cop>Chichester, UK</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd</pub><pmid>20878829</pmid><doi>10.1002/pon.1727</doi><tpages>6</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Cancer end-of-life Female Forecasting Gastric cancer Gastrointestinal diseases Humans Kaplan-Meier Estimate Life Expectancy Male Medical Oncology Metastatic cancer Middle Aged Neoplasms - mortality Neoplasms - psychology Oncologists Oncology Patients Perceptions Physician-Patient Relations Physicians Prognosis prognostication Self Report Sons survival Survival analysis Survival Rate |
| title | Patient and oncologist estimates of survival in advanced cancer patients |
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