Space–Time Earthquake Prediction: The Error Diagrams
The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram n versus τ , where n is the rate of failures-to-predict and τ is a characteristic of space–time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the quantity τ is not defined uniquely. We start from the case in which τ...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Pure and applied geophysics 2010-08, Vol.167 (8-9), p.907-917 |
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Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram
n
versus
τ
, where
n
is the rate of failures-to-predict and
τ
is a characteristic of space–time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the quantity
τ
is not defined uniquely. We start from the case in which
τ
is a vector with components related to the local alarm times and find a simple structure of the space–time diagram in terms of local time diagrams. This key result is used to analyze the usual 2-d error sets {
n
,
τ
w
} in which
τ
w
is a weighted mean of the
τ
components and
w
is the weight vector. We suggest a simple algorithm to find the (
n
,
τ
w
) representation of all random guess strategies, the set
D
, and prove that there exists the unique case of
w
when
D
degenerates to the diagonal
n
+
τ
w
= 1. We find also a confidence zone of
D
on the (
n
,
τ
w
) plane when the local target rates are known roughly. These facts are important for correct interpretation of (
n
,
τ
w
) diagrams when we discuss the prediction capability of the data or prediction methods. |
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ISSN: | 0033-4553 1420-9136 |
DOI: | 10.1007/s00024-010-0087-z |