Space–Time Earthquake Prediction: The Error Diagrams

The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram n versus τ , where n is the rate of failures-to-predict and τ is a characteristic of space–time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the quantity τ is not defined uniquely. We start from the case in which τ...

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Veröffentlicht in:Pure and applied geophysics 2010-08, Vol.167 (8-9), p.907-917
1. Verfasser: Molchan, G.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram n versus τ , where n is the rate of failures-to-predict and τ is a characteristic of space–time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the quantity τ is not defined uniquely. We start from the case in which τ is a vector with components related to the local alarm times and find a simple structure of the space–time diagram in terms of local time diagrams. This key result is used to analyze the usual 2-d error sets { n , τ w } in which τ w is a weighted mean of the τ components and w is the weight vector. We suggest a simple algorithm to find the ( n , τ w ) representation of all random guess strategies, the set D , and prove that there exists the unique case of w when D degenerates to the diagonal n  +  τ w  = 1. We find also a confidence zone of D on the ( n , τ w ) plane when the local target rates are known roughly. These facts are important for correct interpretation of ( n , τ w ) diagrams when we discuss the prediction capability of the data or prediction methods.
ISSN:0033-4553
1420-9136
DOI:10.1007/s00024-010-0087-z