Proximate Determinants of Fertility and Policy Implications in Beijing

Data from a 1982 sample survey of 3,830 married women below age 50 in a district of Beijing City are applied to the Bongaarts model of the proximate determinants of fertility. A total fertility rate (TFR) of 0.75 births per woman is estimated from the model, compared with a TFR of 1.24 actually observed from the survey. The estimated TFR (0.75) results from the assumed total fecundity (TF) of 15.30 births per woman being inhibited by the indexes of the proximate determinants of fertility, most notably non-marriage (.280), contraception (.315), and induced abortion (.586). The effects of two other proximate determinants, lactational infecundability and spousal separation, were negligible. Comparative data from other countries confirm that the study area has very low levels of fertility and marriage, a very high prevalence of induced abortion, and a small effect of lactational infecundability. The extremely low level of fertility was, thus, achieved through a high level of induced abortion. Future research needs and policy implications associated with the study are discussed.