Estimated Future HIV Prevalence, Incidence, and Potential Infections Averted in the United States: A Multiple Scenario Analysis
OBJECTIVES:To estimate the potential future burden of HIV in the United States under different intervention scenarios. METHODS:We modeled future HIV incidence, prevalence, and infections averted using 2006 estimates of HIV incidence (55,400 new infections per year), prevalence (1,107,000 persons liv...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) 2010-10, Vol.55 (2), p.271-276 |
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| container_title | Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) |
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| creator | Hall, H Irene Green, Timothy A Wolitski, Richard J Holtgrave, David R Rhodes, Philip Lehman, J Stan Durden, Teresa Fenton, Kevin A Mermin, Jonathan H |
| description | OBJECTIVES:To estimate the potential future burden of HIV in the United States under different intervention scenarios.
METHODS:We modeled future HIV incidence, prevalence, and infections averted using 2006 estimates of HIV incidence (55,400 new infections per year), prevalence (1,107,000 persons living with HIV), and transmission rate (5.0 per 100 persons living with HIV). We modeled 10-year trends for 3 base-case scenarios (steady incidence, steady transmission rate, declining transmission rate based on the 2000-2006 trend) and 2 intensified HIV intervention scenarios (50% reduction in transmission rate within 10 and 5 years).
RESULTS:Base-case scenarios predicted HIV prevalence increases of 24%-38% in 10 years. Reducing the transmission rate by 50% within 10 years reduces incidence by 40%; prevalence increases 20% to an estimated 1,329,000 persons living with HIV. Halving the transmission rate within 5 years reduces incidence by 46%; prevalence increases 13%, to 1,247,000. Although in year 10 incidence is similar regardless of the intervention time frame, more infections are averted when halving the transmission rate within 5 years.
CONCLUSIONS:HIV prevalence will likely increase creating additional demands for health care services. These analyses are instructive for setting HIV prevention goals for the nation and assessing potential cost savings of intensified HIV prevention efforts. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181e8f90c |
| format | Article |
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METHODS:We modeled future HIV incidence, prevalence, and infections averted using 2006 estimates of HIV incidence (55,400 new infections per year), prevalence (1,107,000 persons living with HIV), and transmission rate (5.0 per 100 persons living with HIV). We modeled 10-year trends for 3 base-case scenarios (steady incidence, steady transmission rate, declining transmission rate based on the 2000-2006 trend) and 2 intensified HIV intervention scenarios (50% reduction in transmission rate within 10 and 5 years).
RESULTS:Base-case scenarios predicted HIV prevalence increases of 24%-38% in 10 years. Reducing the transmission rate by 50% within 10 years reduces incidence by 40%; prevalence increases 20% to an estimated 1,329,000 persons living with HIV. Halving the transmission rate within 5 years reduces incidence by 46%; prevalence increases 13%, to 1,247,000. Although in year 10 incidence is similar regardless of the intervention time frame, more infections are averted when halving the transmission rate within 5 years.
CONCLUSIONS:HIV prevalence will likely increase creating additional demands for health care services. These analyses are instructive for setting HIV prevention goals for the nation and assessing potential cost savings of intensified HIV prevention efforts.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1525-4135</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-7884</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181e8f90c</identifier><identifier>PMID: 20634702</identifier><identifier>CODEN: JDSRET</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Hagerstown, MD: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc</publisher><subject>AIDS/HIV ; Biological and medical sciences ; Disease prevention ; Disease transmission ; Forecasting ; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology ; HIV ; HIV Infections - economics ; HIV Infections - epidemiology ; HIV Infections - prevention & control ; HIV Infections - transmission ; Human immunodeficiency virus ; Human viral diseases ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infectious diseases ; Medical sciences ; Microbiology ; Miscellaneous ; Models, Theoretical ; Prevalence ; Risk Reduction Behavior ; United States - epidemiology ; Viral diseases ; Viral diseases of the lymphoid tissue and the blood. Aids ; Virology</subject><ispartof>Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2010-10, Vol.55 (2), p.271-276</ispartof><rights>2010 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.</rights><rights>2015 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Oct 1, 2010</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c490c-ce6b8e23a1f43802060fcde5ba024a44ea2d42c8d24dfcb975a8d0dd8126e3dc3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c490c-ce6b8e23a1f43802060fcde5ba024a44ea2d42c8d24dfcb975a8d0dd8126e3dc3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=23252824$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20634702$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Hall, H Irene</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Green, Timothy A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wolitski, Richard J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Holtgrave, David R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rhodes, Philip</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lehman, J Stan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Durden, Teresa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fenton, Kevin A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mermin, Jonathan H</creatorcontrib><title>Estimated Future HIV Prevalence, Incidence, and Potential Infections Averted in the United States: A Multiple Scenario Analysis</title><title>Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)</title><addtitle>J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr</addtitle><description>OBJECTIVES:To estimate the potential future burden of HIV in the United States under different intervention scenarios.
METHODS:We modeled future HIV incidence, prevalence, and infections averted using 2006 estimates of HIV incidence (55,400 new infections per year), prevalence (1,107,000 persons living with HIV), and transmission rate (5.0 per 100 persons living with HIV). We modeled 10-year trends for 3 base-case scenarios (steady incidence, steady transmission rate, declining transmission rate based on the 2000-2006 trend) and 2 intensified HIV intervention scenarios (50% reduction in transmission rate within 10 and 5 years).
RESULTS:Base-case scenarios predicted HIV prevalence increases of 24%-38% in 10 years. Reducing the transmission rate by 50% within 10 years reduces incidence by 40%; prevalence increases 20% to an estimated 1,329,000 persons living with HIV. Halving the transmission rate within 5 years reduces incidence by 46%; prevalence increases 13%, to 1,247,000. Although in year 10 incidence is similar regardless of the intervention time frame, more infections are averted when halving the transmission rate within 5 years.
CONCLUSIONS:HIV prevalence will likely increase creating additional demands for health care services. These analyses are instructive for setting HIV prevention goals for the nation and assessing potential cost savings of intensified HIV prevention efforts.</description><subject>AIDS/HIV</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Disease prevention</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</subject><subject>HIV</subject><subject>HIV Infections - economics</subject><subject>HIV Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>HIV Infections - prevention & control</subject><subject>HIV Infections - transmission</subject><subject>Human immunodeficiency virus</subject><subject>Human viral diseases</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Medical sciences</subject><subject>Microbiology</subject><subject>Miscellaneous</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Prevalence</subject><subject>Risk Reduction Behavior</subject><subject>United States - epidemiology</subject><subject>Viral diseases</subject><subject>Viral diseases of the lymphoid tissue and the blood. Aids</subject><subject>Virology</subject><issn>1525-4135</issn><issn>1944-7884</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2010</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkUFv1DAQhS0EoqXwDxCykBAXUmzHTmxuUdXSlYooKuUaOfZE6-J1Fttp1RN_HUe7gNQDnGZG_uZpnh9CLyk5pkS17790q2MyEFpDTSUFOSpiHqFDqjivWin549ILJipOa3GAnqV0QwhtOFdP0QEjTc1bwg7Rz9OU3UZnsPhsznMEfL76hi8j3GoPwcA7vArG2V2rg8WXU4aQnfblYQST3RQS7m4hLhIu4LwGfB3cMl3lops-4A5_mn12Ww_4ykDQ0U24C9rfJ5eeoyej9gle7OsRuj47_XpyXl18_rg66S4qw4uvykAzSGC1piOvJSn3k9FYEIMmjGvOQTPLmZGWcTuaQbVCS0uslZQ1UFtTH6G3O91tnH7MkHK_ccmA9zrANKdeUiE4EZL_l2yFoKpRTBXy9QPyZppjMbZATaMIkaxAfAeZOKUUYey3sXx4vO8p6Zcg-xJk_zDIsvZqrz0PG7B_ln4nV4A3e0Ano_0Ydckp_eVqJphkix254-4mnyGm736-g9ivQfu8_vcNvwDZm7mz</recordid><startdate>20101001</startdate><enddate>20101001</enddate><creator>Hall, H Irene</creator><creator>Green, Timothy A</creator><creator>Wolitski, Richard J</creator><creator>Holtgrave, David R</creator><creator>Rhodes, Philip</creator><creator>Lehman, J Stan</creator><creator>Durden, Teresa</creator><creator>Fenton, Kevin A</creator><creator>Mermin, Jonathan H</creator><general>Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc</general><general>Lippincott Williams & Wilkins</general><general>Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Ovid Technologies</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7T2</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7TK</scope><scope>7U7</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20101001</creationdate><title>Estimated Future HIV Prevalence, Incidence, and Potential Infections Averted in the United States: A Multiple Scenario Analysis</title><author>Hall, H Irene ; Green, Timothy A ; Wolitski, Richard J ; Holtgrave, David R ; Rhodes, Philip ; Lehman, J Stan ; Durden, Teresa ; Fenton, Kevin A ; Mermin, Jonathan H</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c490c-ce6b8e23a1f43802060fcde5ba024a44ea2d42c8d24dfcb975a8d0dd8126e3dc3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2010</creationdate><topic>AIDS/HIV</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Disease prevention</topic><topic>Disease transmission</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</topic><topic>HIV</topic><topic>HIV Infections - economics</topic><topic>HIV Infections - epidemiology</topic><topic>HIV Infections - prevention & control</topic><topic>HIV Infections - transmission</topic><topic>Human immunodeficiency virus</topic><topic>Human viral diseases</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Infectious diseases</topic><topic>Medical sciences</topic><topic>Microbiology</topic><topic>Miscellaneous</topic><topic>Models, Theoretical</topic><topic>Prevalence</topic><topic>Risk Reduction Behavior</topic><topic>United States - epidemiology</topic><topic>Viral diseases</topic><topic>Viral diseases of the lymphoid tissue and the blood. Aids</topic><topic>Virology</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Hall, H Irene</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Green, Timothy A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wolitski, Richard J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Holtgrave, David R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rhodes, Philip</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lehman, J Stan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Durden, Teresa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fenton, Kevin A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mermin, Jonathan H</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Health and Safety Science Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Neurosciences Abstracts</collection><collection>Toxicology Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Hall, H Irene</au><au>Green, Timothy A</au><au>Wolitski, Richard J</au><au>Holtgrave, David R</au><au>Rhodes, Philip</au><au>Lehman, J Stan</au><au>Durden, Teresa</au><au>Fenton, Kevin A</au><au>Mermin, Jonathan H</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Estimated Future HIV Prevalence, Incidence, and Potential Infections Averted in the United States: A Multiple Scenario Analysis</atitle><jtitle>Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)</jtitle><addtitle>J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr</addtitle><date>2010-10-01</date><risdate>2010</risdate><volume>55</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>271</spage><epage>276</epage><pages>271-276</pages><issn>1525-4135</issn><eissn>1944-7884</eissn><coden>JDSRET</coden><abstract>OBJECTIVES:To estimate the potential future burden of HIV in the United States under different intervention scenarios.
METHODS:We modeled future HIV incidence, prevalence, and infections averted using 2006 estimates of HIV incidence (55,400 new infections per year), prevalence (1,107,000 persons living with HIV), and transmission rate (5.0 per 100 persons living with HIV). We modeled 10-year trends for 3 base-case scenarios (steady incidence, steady transmission rate, declining transmission rate based on the 2000-2006 trend) and 2 intensified HIV intervention scenarios (50% reduction in transmission rate within 10 and 5 years).
RESULTS:Base-case scenarios predicted HIV prevalence increases of 24%-38% in 10 years. Reducing the transmission rate by 50% within 10 years reduces incidence by 40%; prevalence increases 20% to an estimated 1,329,000 persons living with HIV. Halving the transmission rate within 5 years reduces incidence by 46%; prevalence increases 13%, to 1,247,000. Although in year 10 incidence is similar regardless of the intervention time frame, more infections are averted when halving the transmission rate within 5 years.
CONCLUSIONS:HIV prevalence will likely increase creating additional demands for health care services. These analyses are instructive for setting HIV prevention goals for the nation and assessing potential cost savings of intensified HIV prevention efforts.</abstract><cop>Hagerstown, MD</cop><pub>Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc</pub><pmid>20634702</pmid><doi>10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181e8f90c</doi><tpages>6</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| identifier | ISSN: 1525-4135 |
| ispartof | Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2010-10, Vol.55 (2), p.271-276 |
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| subjects | AIDS/HIV Biological and medical sciences Disease prevention Disease transmission Forecasting Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology HIV HIV Infections - economics HIV Infections - epidemiology HIV Infections - prevention & control HIV Infections - transmission Human immunodeficiency virus Human viral diseases Humans Incidence Infectious diseases Medical sciences Microbiology Miscellaneous Models, Theoretical Prevalence Risk Reduction Behavior United States - epidemiology Viral diseases Viral diseases of the lymphoid tissue and the blood. Aids Virology |
| title | Estimated Future HIV Prevalence, Incidence, and Potential Infections Averted in the United States: A Multiple Scenario Analysis |
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