Inability to Predict Relapse in Acute Asthma

FISCHL and co-workers developed an index that they claimed would predict relapse in patients with asthma. 1 The index had a 95 per cent sensitivity and a 97 per cent specificity when applied to a sample of emergency room patients discharged or hospitalized within 12 hours. The authors enumerated the advantages of this index, including cost-effectiveness and a shorter period of emergency care before hospitalization. Other investigators have reported that the index is both accurate 2 and useful. 3 Before this or any other index gains universal acceptance, we should demonstrate that the predictions are valid in a variety of settings. 4 , 5 This validation . . .