Mathematical Modeling of Epidemic Syphilis Transmission: Implications for Syphilis Control Programs
Background and Objectives: The past 10 years' wave of syphilis epidemics has challenged syphilis control programs. Although apparently connected to drugs-for-sex trading of crack cocaine, the genesis and resolution of these epidemics is poorly understood. Goals of the Study: The goals of this s...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Sexually transmitted diseases 1996-01, Vol.23 (1), p.30-39 |
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| container_title | Sexually transmitted diseases |
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| creator | OXMAN, GARY L. SMOLKOWSKI, KEITH NOELL, JOHN |
| description | Background and Objectives: The past 10 years' wave of syphilis epidemics has challenged syphilis control programs. Although apparently connected to drugs-for-sex trading of crack cocaine, the genesis and resolution of these epidemics is poorly understood. Goals of the Study: The goals of this study were to develop a mathematical model of epidemic syphilis transmission based on empiric data, to stimulate and ascertain behavioral and sociologic features necessary to produce epidemic transmission, and to explore mechanisms leading to resolution of epidemic transmission. Study Design: The study used multi-compartment iterative computer simulation using empirically derived input data. Results: Epidemic transmission resulted from adding a small core group of individuals with very high levels of partner exchange (300-400 partners per year) to a population with levels of partner exchange seen in the general population. Epidemic resolution could result from immunity or subtle changes in the size or partner exchange rate of the core group. Conclusions: There is a need for sexually transmitted disease control programs to reevaluate their approach to prevention and control of epidemic syphilis in light of data on transmission dynamics. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1097/00007435-199601000-00008 |
| format | Article |
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Although apparently connected to drugs-for-sex trading of crack cocaine, the genesis and resolution of these epidemics is poorly understood. Goals of the Study: The goals of this study were to develop a mathematical model of epidemic syphilis transmission based on empiric data, to stimulate and ascertain behavioral and sociologic features necessary to produce epidemic transmission, and to explore mechanisms leading to resolution of epidemic transmission. Study Design: The study used multi-compartment iterative computer simulation using empirically derived input data. Results: Epidemic transmission resulted from adding a small core group of individuals with very high levels of partner exchange (300-400 partners per year) to a population with levels of partner exchange seen in the general population. Epidemic resolution could result from immunity or subtle changes in the size or partner exchange rate of the core group. 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Although apparently connected to drugs-for-sex trading of crack cocaine, the genesis and resolution of these epidemics is poorly understood. Goals of the Study: The goals of this study were to develop a mathematical model of epidemic syphilis transmission based on empiric data, to stimulate and ascertain behavioral and sociologic features necessary to produce epidemic transmission, and to explore mechanisms leading to resolution of epidemic transmission. Study Design: The study used multi-compartment iterative computer simulation using empirically derived input data. Results: Epidemic transmission resulted from adding a small core group of individuals with very high levels of partner exchange (300-400 partners per year) to a population with levels of partner exchange seen in the general population. Epidemic resolution could result from immunity or subtle changes in the size or partner exchange rate of the core group. Conclusions: There is a need for sexually transmitted disease control programs to reevaluate their approach to prevention and control of epidemic syphilis in light of data on transmission dynamics.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Bacterial diseases</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Computer Simulation</subject><subject>Disease Outbreaks</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Human bacterial diseases</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Medical sciences</subject><subject>Miscellaneous</subject><subject>Models, Biological</subject><subject>Oregon - epidemiology</subject><subject>Original Articles</subject><subject>Population Density</subject><subject>Preventive medicine</subject><subject>Sexual Partners</subject><subject>Sexually transmitted diseases</subject><subject>STD</subject><subject>Syphilis - epidemiology</subject><subject>Syphilis - immunology</subject><subject>Syphilis - transmission</subject><issn>0148-5717</issn><issn>1537-4521</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1996</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>7QJ</sourceid><recordid>eNpdUU1LxDAQDaLouvoThCDirZo0395kWT_ARUE9lyRNNUvb1KR78N-b1XUF5zK8mfcewxsAIEYXGClxiXIJSliBleIIZ1SsR3IHTDAjoqCsxLtggjCVBRNYHIDDlJZojRHeB_syN07RBNiFHt9dp0dvdQsXoXat799gaOB88LXrvIXPn8O7b32CL1H3qfMp-dBfwftuaLNozCDBJsQ_3iz0YwwtfIrhLeouHYG9RrfJHW_6FLzezF9md8XD4-397PqhsISQsVDYSMsV4oiVTe0oaZpaCsoNR044awR2TGojJZHYlBwbgxBBhmhELCMOkyk4__EdYvhYuTRW-Vjr2lb3LqxSJSQuOaMkE0__EZdhFft8W1WWJVFMSJ5J8odkY0gpuqYaou90_KwwqtZPqH6fUG2f8D2SWXqy8V-ZztVb4Sb1vD_b7HXKsTc5V-vTllaqnIIifzbLNIa4XVOqOBVMkS9jH5hn</recordid><startdate>19960101</startdate><enddate>19960101</enddate><creator>OXMAN, GARY L.</creator><creator>SMOLKOWSKI, KEITH</creator><creator>NOELL, JOHN</creator><general>Lippincott-Raven Publishers</general><general>Lippincott</general><general>Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Ovid Technologies</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QJ</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7T2</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>19960101</creationdate><title>Mathematical Modeling of Epidemic Syphilis Transmission: Implications for Syphilis Control Programs</title><author>OXMAN, GARY L. ; SMOLKOWSKI, KEITH ; NOELL, JOHN</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c333t-91b8c6906052fde43ffd8746b60e7ecb71e58ab88381b261bb0030b3a03c53e13</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1996</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Bacterial diseases</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Computer Simulation</topic><topic>Disease Outbreaks</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Human bacterial diseases</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infectious diseases</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Medical sciences</topic><topic>Miscellaneous</topic><topic>Models, Biological</topic><topic>Oregon - epidemiology</topic><topic>Original Articles</topic><topic>Population Density</topic><topic>Preventive medicine</topic><topic>Sexual Partners</topic><topic>Sexually transmitted diseases</topic><topic>STD</topic><topic>Syphilis - epidemiology</topic><topic>Syphilis - immunology</topic><topic>Syphilis - transmission</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>OXMAN, GARY L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>SMOLKOWSKI, KEITH</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>NOELL, JOHN</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA)</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Health and Safety Science Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Sexually transmitted diseases</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>OXMAN, GARY L.</au><au>SMOLKOWSKI, KEITH</au><au>NOELL, JOHN</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Mathematical Modeling of Epidemic Syphilis Transmission: Implications for Syphilis Control Programs</atitle><jtitle>Sexually transmitted diseases</jtitle><addtitle>Sex Transm Dis</addtitle><date>1996-01-01</date><risdate>1996</risdate><volume>23</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>30</spage><epage>39</epage><pages>30-39</pages><issn>0148-5717</issn><eissn>1537-4521</eissn><coden>STRDDM</coden><abstract>Background and Objectives: The past 10 years' wave of syphilis epidemics has challenged syphilis control programs. Although apparently connected to drugs-for-sex trading of crack cocaine, the genesis and resolution of these epidemics is poorly understood. Goals of the Study: The goals of this study were to develop a mathematical model of epidemic syphilis transmission based on empiric data, to stimulate and ascertain behavioral and sociologic features necessary to produce epidemic transmission, and to explore mechanisms leading to resolution of epidemic transmission. Study Design: The study used multi-compartment iterative computer simulation using empirically derived input data. Results: Epidemic transmission resulted from adding a small core group of individuals with very high levels of partner exchange (300-400 partners per year) to a population with levels of partner exchange seen in the general population. Epidemic resolution could result from immunity or subtle changes in the size or partner exchange rate of the core group. Conclusions: There is a need for sexually transmitted disease control programs to reevaluate their approach to prevention and control of epidemic syphilis in light of data on transmission dynamics.</abstract><cop>Hagerstown, MD</cop><pub>Lippincott-Raven Publishers</pub><pmid>8801640</pmid><doi>10.1097/00007435-199601000-00008</doi><tpages>10</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Sexually transmitted diseases, 1996-01, Vol.23 (1), p.30-39 |
| issn | 0148-5717 1537-4521 |
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| source | MEDLINE; Journals@Ovid Complete; Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA); Jstor Complete Legacy |
| subjects | Adolescent Adult Bacterial diseases Biological and medical sciences Computer Simulation Disease Outbreaks Epidemics Female Human bacterial diseases Humans Infectious diseases Male Mathematical models Medical sciences Miscellaneous Models, Biological Oregon - epidemiology Original Articles Population Density Preventive medicine Sexual Partners Sexually transmitted diseases STD Syphilis - epidemiology Syphilis - immunology Syphilis - transmission |
| title | Mathematical Modeling of Epidemic Syphilis Transmission: Implications for Syphilis Control Programs |
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