Factors influencing progression of renal failure in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) frequently leads to end-stage renal failure (ESRF) in the sixth decade of life, but considerable heterogeneity exists in the rate of progression of renal failure. The respective contribution of genetic factors and of potentially amendable factors, such as blood pressure control or protein intake limitation, on the rate of progression in ADPKD patients is still debated. To evaluate the role of factors influencing the rate of progression of renal failure in ADPKD, we retrospectively analyzed the annual rate of decline of creatinine clearance (Ccr) in 109 ADPKD patients followed from the time a Ccr value of 30 to 50 mL per min/1.73 m2 was measured until ESRD and need for hemodialysis (Study A), and in 48 undialyzed ADPKD patients followed for at least 4 yr from the time a Ccr value of 50 to 60 mL per min/1.73 m2 was measured (Study B). In Study A, the decline in Ccr (delta Ccr) (mean +/- SE) was 5.8 +/- 0.2 mL per min/1.73 m2 per year in the whole series, and was lower in females than in males (5.0 +/- 0.2 versus 6.4 +/- 0.2, P < 0.001). Accordingly, ESRF was reached at a later age in female patients (55.1 +/- 1.2 versus 50.6 +/- 1.2 yr, P < 0.01). The age at ESRF in male patients was lower when the disease was transmitted by mother than by father (46.3 +/- 1.9 versus 54.1 +/- 1.8 yr, P < 0.01), whereas no significant effect of the gender of the affected parent was apparent in female patients. By regression analysis, there was a positive but weak relationship between delta Ccr and mean arterial pressure (average value during follow-up, 107 +/- 1 mm Hg, r = 0.224, P < 0.05) but not with dietary protein intake (mean value in follow-up, 0.87 +/- 0.03 g/kg per day, r = 0.10, P = 0.33) nor with proteinuria at baseline, which was lower than 0.3 g/day in 104 cases (r = 0.10, P = 0.28). There was a negative relationship between age at ESRF and delta Ccr (r = 0.245, P < 0.05), with a later and slower progression in older subjects. In Study B, the mean decline in renal function during follow-up was 5.3 +/- 0.4 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year, a value close to that observed in Study A. By multiple regression analysis of the overall population (studies A and B combined), only MAP, age and gender were independent predictive factors of delta Ccr but all studied parameters taken together accounted for at best 20% of delta Ccr variation. We conclude that the rate of progression of renal failure in ADPKD patients is mainly determin