Recurrent bleeding after variceal hemorrhage: predictive value of portal venous duplex sonography

Risk assessment of recurrent variceal bleeding is essential for therapeutic decisions and is usually performed by endoscopy of the upper gastrointestinal tract. We studied the value of portal venous duplex sonography in predicting subsequent variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. Thirty patients with cirrhosis who received sclerotherapy because of acute variceal hemorrhage for the first time (hemorrhage group), 30 patients with cirrhosis who had no previous hemorrhage (nonhemorrhage group), and 30 control subjects were examined prospectively. With the use of portal duplex and color Doppler sonography, flow direction, flow velocity, vein diameter, and response to respiration of portal vein vessels were measured and portosystemic collaterals and thrombosis of portal vessels were visualized. The results of these measurements and imaging findings were combined into a Doppler sonoscore. At entry into the study, all patients were classified on the basis of a sonoscore as having a low (sonoscore, < 4) or a high (sonoscore, > or = 4) risk for subsequent hemorrhage. During a mean follow-up period of 2 years (range, 15-36 months), the predictive value of this Doppler sonoscore was studied. In the hemorrhage group, the prevalence of recurrent hemorrhage was 40%, despite sclerotherapy, and the mortality rate was 60%. In patients with a Doppler sonoscore of 4 or more, the prevalence of recurrent hemorrhage was 67%, whereas in patients with a score less than 4, the prevalence was only 22% (p < .02). After sclerotherapy, endoscopic criteria showed no significant correlation with the prevalence of bleeding. In the nonhemorrhage group, the prevalence of variceal hemorrhage occurring was 13%, and Doppler sonographic criteria showed no significant correlation with the prevalence of subsequent hemorrhage. We conclude that Doppler sonography, performed after the first occurrence of variceal hemorrhage, provides useful prognostic information regarding the risk of recurrent hemorrhage. If these results are confirmed, Doppler sonography may be used to select the best method of treatment.