Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts

Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Risk analysis 2010-03, Vol.30 (3), p.512-523
Hauptverfasser:	Speirs-Bridge, Andrew, Fidler, Fiona, McBride, Marissa, Flander, Louisa, Cumming, Geoff, Burgman, Mark
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Biologists Cohen's d Confidence Confidence Intervals Decision making Diseases Ecologists Epidemiology Expert elicitation expert opinion Experts Humans Infectious diseases interval judgment Judgment overconfidence Public Health Risk Assessment Risk theory Studies
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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