Sensitivity of Numerical Simulation of Early Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Emily (2005) to Cloud Microphysical and Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations

An advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model is used to simulate the early rapid intensification of Hurricane Emily (2005) using grids nested to high resolution (3 km). A series of numerical simulations is conducted to examine the sensitivity of the simulation to available cloud microphysical (CM) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes. Results indicate that the numerical simulations of the early rapid intensification of Hurricane Emily are very sensitive to the choice of CM and PBL schemes in the ARW model. Specifically, with different CM schemes, the simulated minimum central sea level pressure (MSLP) varies by up to 29 hPa, and the use of various PBL schemes has resulted in differences in the simulated MSLP of up to 19 hPa during the 30-h forecast period. Physical processes associated with the above sensitivities are investigated. It is found that the magnitude of the environmental vertical wind shear is not well correlated with simulated hurricane intensities. In contrast, the eyewall convective heating distributions and the latent heat flux and high equivalent potential temperature (θe) feeding from the ocean surface are directly associated with the simulated intensities. Consistent with recognized facts, higher latent heat release in stronger eyewall convection, stronger surface energy, and high θe air feeding from the ocean surface into the hurricane eyewall are evident in the more enhanced convection and intense storms. The sensitivity studies in this paper also indicate that the contributions from the CM and PBL processes can only partially explain the slow intensification in the ARW simulations. Simulation at 1-km grid resolution shows a slight improvement in Emily’s intensity forecast, implying that the higher resolution is somewhat helpful, but still not enough to cause the model to reproduce the real intensity of the hurricane.