Predictive Thresholds for Plague in Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia, the bacterium Yersinia pestis circulates in natural populations of gerbils, which are the source of human cases of bubonic plague. Our analysis of field data collected between 1955 and 1996 shows that plague invades, fades out, and reinvades in response t...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2004-04, Vol.304 (5671), p.736-738
Hauptverfasser:	Davis, Stephen, Begon, Mike, De Bruyn, Luc, Ageyev, Vladimir S., Klassovskiy, Nikolay L., Pole, Sergey B., Viljugrein, Hildegunn, Nils Chr. Stenseth, Leirs, Herwig
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Analysis Animal diseases Animals Animals, Wild - microbiology Bacteria Bacteriology Biological and medical sciences Carrier state (Communicable diseases) Communicable Diseases Community Characteristics Development and progression Disease Outbreaks - veterinary Disease Reservoirs Epidemics Epidemiology Expectation Fleas Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Gerbillinae - microbiology Gerbils Health aspects Humans Infections Infectious diseases Insect Vectors - microbiology Kazakhstan - epidemiology Likelihood Functions Microbiology Models, Statistical Nonlinear Dynamics Persistence Plague Plague - epidemiology Plague - prevention & control Plague - transmission Plague - veterinary Population Density Population ecology Population Surveillance Rhombomys opimus Rodent Diseases - epidemiology Siphonaptera - microbiology Site Selection Surveillance Wildlife ecology Yersinia pestis Yersinia pestis - isolation & purification
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