No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe
Extreme river floods have been a substantial natural hazard in Europe over the past centuries 1 , and radiative effects of recent anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, especially enhancement of the hydrological cycle 2 , leading to an increased flood...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Nature (London) 2003-09, Vol.425 (6954), p.166-169 |
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| creator | Mudelsee, Manfred Börngen, Michael Tetzlaff, Gerd Grünewald, Uwe |
| description | Extreme river floods have been a substantial natural hazard in Europe over the past centuries
1
, and radiative effects of recent anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, especially enhancement of the hydrological cycle
2
, leading to an increased flood risk
3
,
4
. For the past few decades, however, observations from Europe
1
,
5
,
6
,
7
do not show a clear increase in flood occurrence rate. Here we present longer-term records of winter and summer floods in two of the largest rivers in central Europe, the Elbe and Oder rivers. For the past 80 to 150 yr, we find a decrease in winter flood occurrence in both rivers, while summer floods show no trend, consistent with trends in extreme precipitation occurrence. The reduction in winter flood occurrence can partly be attributed to fewer events of strong freezing—following such events, breaking river ice at the end of the winter may function as a water barrier and enhance floods severely. Additionally, we detect significant long-term changes in flood occurrence rates in the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries, and conclude that reductions in river length, construction of reservoirs and deforestation have had minor effects on flood frequency. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1038/nature01928 |
| format | Article |
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1
, and radiative effects of recent anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, especially enhancement of the hydrological cycle
2
, leading to an increased flood risk
3
,
4
. For the past few decades, however, observations from Europe
1
,
5
,
6
,
7
do not show a clear increase in flood occurrence rate. Here we present longer-term records of winter and summer floods in two of the largest rivers in central Europe, the Elbe and Oder rivers. For the past 80 to 150 yr, we find a decrease in winter flood occurrence in both rivers, while summer floods show no trend, consistent with trends in extreme precipitation occurrence. The reduction in winter flood occurrence can partly be attributed to fewer events of strong freezing—following such events, breaking river ice at the end of the winter may function as a water barrier and enhance floods severely. Additionally, we detect significant long-term changes in flood occurrence rates in the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries, and conclude that reductions in river length, construction of reservoirs and deforestation have had minor effects on flood frequency.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0028-0836</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1476-4687</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1038/nature01928</identifier><identifier>PMID: 12968176</identifier><identifier>CODEN: NATUAS</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>London: Nature Publishing Group UK</publisher><subject>Anthropogenic factors ; Climate change ; Deforestation ; Earth sciences ; Earth, ocean, space ; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics ; Environmental aspects ; Environmental risk ; Europe ; Exact sciences and technology ; Extreme weather ; Flood forecasting ; Flood frequency ; Floods ; Forecasts and trends ; Freezing ; Freshwater ; Humanities and Social Sciences ; Hydrologic cycle ; Hydrology ; Hydrology. Hydrogeology ; letter ; Methods ; multidisciplinary ; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc ; River ice ; Rivers ; Science ; Statistics ; Summer ; Winter</subject><ispartof>Nature (London), 2003-09, Vol.425 (6954), p.166-169</ispartof><rights>Macmillan Magazines Ltd. 2003</rights><rights>2003 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2003 Nature Publishing Group</rights><rights>Copyright Macmillan Journals Ltd. Sep 11, 2003</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a908t-461c8e97270e810f8dc7983653022f62197d66a92d616e42149c064a15bd3ba83</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a908t-461c8e97270e810f8dc7983653022f62197d66a92d616e42149c064a15bd3ba83</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1038/nature01928$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1038/nature01928$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=15108033$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12968176$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Mudelsee, Manfred</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Börngen, Michael</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tetzlaff, Gerd</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Grünewald, Uwe</creatorcontrib><title>No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe</title><title>Nature (London)</title><addtitle>Nature</addtitle><addtitle>Nature</addtitle><description>Extreme river floods have been a substantial natural hazard in Europe over the past centuries
1
, and radiative effects of recent anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, especially enhancement of the hydrological cycle
2
, leading to an increased flood risk
3
,
4
. For the past few decades, however, observations from Europe
1
,
5
,
6
,
7
do not show a clear increase in flood occurrence rate. Here we present longer-term records of winter and summer floods in two of the largest rivers in central Europe, the Elbe and Oder rivers. For the past 80 to 150 yr, we find a decrease in winter flood occurrence in both rivers, while summer floods show no trend, consistent with trends in extreme precipitation occurrence. The reduction in winter flood occurrence can partly be attributed to fewer events of strong freezing—following such events, breaking river ice at the end of the winter may function as a water barrier and enhance floods severely. Additionally, we detect significant long-term changes in flood occurrence rates in the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries, and conclude that reductions in river length, construction of reservoirs and deforestation have had minor effects on flood frequency.</description><subject>Anthropogenic factors</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Deforestation</subject><subject>Earth sciences</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics</subject><subject>Environmental aspects</subject><subject>Environmental risk</subject><subject>Europe</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>Extreme weather</subject><subject>Flood forecasting</subject><subject>Flood frequency</subject><subject>Floods</subject><subject>Forecasts and trends</subject><subject>Freezing</subject><subject>Freshwater</subject><subject>Humanities and Social Sciences</subject><subject>Hydrologic cycle</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Hydrology. Hydrogeology</subject><subject>letter</subject><subject>Methods</subject><subject>multidisciplinary</subject><subject>Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc</subject><subject>River ice</subject><subject>Rivers</subject><subject>Science</subject><subject>Statistics</subject><subject>Summer</subject><subject>Winter</subject><issn>0028-0836</issn><issn>1476-4687</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2003</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>BEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNqN089v0zAUB_AIgVg3OHFHEdJACDresx3_OFbVBpOmIcEQx8h1nJIptTs7EeO_x1UrtUUdmXJIZH_89VP8nGWvEM4QqPzkdNcHC6iIfJKNkAk-ZlyKp9kIgMgxSMqPsuMYbwGgQMGeZ0dIFJco-Ci7uPZ5v_ytQ5V3wboq5o3Lu18298b0IY2Y9Fnn9j7NLmxet96vjbGuC7rNz_vgl_ZF9qzWbbQvN--T7MfF-c30y_jq6-fL6eRqrBXILtWFRloliAArEWpZGaFSfQUFQmpOUImKc61IxZFbRpApA5xpLGYVnWlJT7J369xl8He9jV25aKKxbaud9X0sBaOUFih5km__LynHBOUgJEIqCjicSJAKLmEYpl05R6TDMJ1jgbRI8M0_8Nb3waU_XRJgBSomV2njNZrr1paNq306IDO3zqZz8s7WTRqecFJwBGD4SI9SCKYYwLaIPW-WzV25G_og2k06O4DSU9lFYw6W-qgFuzu831uQTJd6eK77GMvL79_2w4fsbu6Hh-3k5uf0ej95WB_INsHHGGxdLkOz0OFPiVCubnq5c9OTfr1piX62sNXWbq52AqcboKPRbR20M03cugJBAl21zce1i2nKzW3Y9tahff8Cf29e3w</recordid><startdate>20030911</startdate><enddate>20030911</enddate><creator>Mudelsee, Manfred</creator><creator>Börngen, Michael</creator><creator>Tetzlaff, Gerd</creator><creator>Grünewald, Uwe</creator><general>Nature Publishing Group UK</general><general>Nature Publishing</general><general>Nature Publishing Group</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>ATWCN</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QG</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7QP</scope><scope>7QR</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TK</scope><scope>7TM</scope><scope>7TO</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88A</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>88G</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AF</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>D1I</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M2M</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PDBOC</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PSYQQ</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>R05</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>S0X</scope><scope>SOI</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>7U6</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>7SC</scope><scope>7SP</scope><scope>7SR</scope><scope>7TB</scope><scope>7U5</scope><scope>8BQ</scope><scope>F28</scope><scope>JG9</scope><scope>JQ2</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>L~C</scope><scope>L~D</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20030911</creationdate><title>No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe</title><author>Mudelsee, Manfred ; Börngen, Michael ; Tetzlaff, Gerd ; Grünewald, Uwe</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a908t-461c8e97270e810f8dc7983653022f62197d66a92d616e42149c064a15bd3ba83</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2003</creationdate><topic>Anthropogenic factors</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Deforestation</topic><topic>Earth sciences</topic><topic>Earth, ocean, space</topic><topic>Engineering and environment geology. 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1
, and radiative effects of recent anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, especially enhancement of the hydrological cycle
2
, leading to an increased flood risk
3
,
4
. For the past few decades, however, observations from Europe
1
,
5
,
6
,
7
do not show a clear increase in flood occurrence rate. Here we present longer-term records of winter and summer floods in two of the largest rivers in central Europe, the Elbe and Oder rivers. For the past 80 to 150 yr, we find a decrease in winter flood occurrence in both rivers, while summer floods show no trend, consistent with trends in extreme precipitation occurrence. The reduction in winter flood occurrence can partly be attributed to fewer events of strong freezing—following such events, breaking river ice at the end of the winter may function as a water barrier and enhance floods severely. Additionally, we detect significant long-term changes in flood occurrence rates in the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries, and conclude that reductions in river length, construction of reservoirs and deforestation have had minor effects on flood frequency.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>Nature Publishing Group UK</pub><pmid>12968176</pmid><doi>10.1038/nature01928</doi><tpages>4</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Nature (London), 2003-09, Vol.425 (6954), p.166-169 |
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| language | eng |
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| source | Nature Journals Online; SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings |
| subjects | Anthropogenic factors Climate change Deforestation Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics Environmental aspects Environmental risk Europe Exact sciences and technology Extreme weather Flood forecasting Flood frequency Floods Forecasts and trends Freezing Freshwater Humanities and Social Sciences Hydrologic cycle Hydrology Hydrology. Hydrogeology letter Methods multidisciplinary Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc River ice Rivers Science Statistics Summer Winter |
| title | No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe |
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