Comparisons of Means Using Exploratory and Confirmatory Approaches

This article discusses comparisons of means using exploratory and confirmatory approaches. Three methods are discussed: hypothesis testing, model selection based on information criteria, and Bayesian model selection. Throughout the article, an example is used to illustrate and evaluate the two appro...

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Veröffentlicht in:Psychological methods 2010-03, Vol.15 (1), p.69-86
Hauptverfasser: Kuiper, Rebecca M, Hoijtink, Herbert
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description This article discusses comparisons of means using exploratory and confirmatory approaches. Three methods are discussed: hypothesis testing, model selection based on information criteria, and Bayesian model selection. Throughout the article, an example is used to illustrate and evaluate the two approaches and the three methods. We demonstrate that confirmatory hypothesis testing techniques have more power-that is, have a higher probability of rejecting a false null hypothesis-and confirmatory model selection techniques have a higher probability of choosing the correct or the best hypothesis than their exploratory counterparts. Furthermore, we show that if more than one hypothesis has to be evaluated, model selection has advantages over hypothesis testing. Another, more elaborate example is used to further illustrate confirmatory model selection. The article concludes with recommendations: When a researcher is able to specify reasonable expectations and hypotheses, confirmatory model selection should be used; otherwise, exploratory model selection should be used.
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subjects Analysis of Variance
Bayesian Statistics
Biological and medical sciences
Causality
Evaluation Methods
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Human
Humans
Hypothesis Testing
Null Hypothesis
Probability
Psychological Theory
Psychology - methods
Psychology - statistics & numerical data
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Psychometrics. Statistics. Methodology
Research Methodology
Selection
Statistical Analysis
Statistics. Mathematics
Testing
title Comparisons of Means Using Exploratory and Confirmatory Approaches
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