Guessing imagined and live chance events: Adults behave like children with live events
An established finding is that adults prefer to guess before rather than after a chance event has happened. This is interpreted in terms of aversion to guessing when relatively incompetent: After throwing, the fall could be known. Adults (N=71, mean age 18;11, N=28, mean age 48;0) showed this prefer...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | The British journal of psychology 2009-11, Vol.100 (4), p.645-659 |
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| container_title | The British journal of psychology |
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| creator | Robinson, E. J. Pendle, J. E. C. Rowley, M. G. Beck, S. R. McColgan, K. L. T. |
| description | An established finding is that adults prefer to guess before rather than after a chance event has happened. This is interpreted in terms of aversion to guessing when relatively incompetent: After throwing, the fall could be known. Adults (N=71, mean age 18;11, N=28, mean age 48;0) showed this preference with imagined die‐throwing as in the published studies. With live die‐throwing, children (N=64, aged 6 and 8 years; N=50, aged 5 and 6 years) and 15‐year‐olds (N=93, 46) showed the opposite preference, as did 17 adults. Seventeen‐year‐olds (N=82) were more likely to prefer to guess after throwing with live rather than imagined die‐throwing. Reliance on imagined situations in the literature on decision‐making under uncertainty ignores the possibility that adults imagine inaccurately how they would really feel: After a real die has been thrown, adults, like children, may feel there is less ambiguity about the outcome. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1348/000712608X386810 |
| format | Article |
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J. ; Pendle, J. E. C. ; Rowley, M. G. ; Beck, S. R. ; McColgan, K. L. T.</creator><creatorcontrib>Robinson, E. J. ; Pendle, J. E. C. ; Rowley, M. G. ; Beck, S. R. ; McColgan, K. L. T.</creatorcontrib><description>An established finding is that adults prefer to guess before rather than after a chance event has happened. This is interpreted in terms of aversion to guessing when relatively incompetent: After throwing, the fall could be known. Adults (N=71, mean age 18;11, N=28, mean age 48;0) showed this preference with imagined die‐throwing as in the published studies. With live die‐throwing, children (N=64, aged 6 and 8 years; N=50, aged 5 and 6 years) and 15‐year‐olds (N=93, 46) showed the opposite preference, as did 17 adults. Seventeen‐year‐olds (N=82) were more likely to prefer to guess after throwing with live rather than imagined die‐throwing. Reliance on imagined situations in the literature on decision‐making under uncertainty ignores the possibility that adults imagine inaccurately how they would really feel: After a real die has been thrown, adults, like children, may feel there is less ambiguity about the outcome.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0007-1269</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2044-8295</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1348/000712608X386810</identifier><identifier>PMID: 19079952</identifier><identifier>CODEN: BJSGAE</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Adult ; Adults ; Behaviour ; Behavioural psychology ; Biological and medical sciences ; Child ; Child development ; Child, Preschool ; Children ; Choice Behavior ; Culture ; Decision Making ; Developmental psychology ; Experimental psychology ; Fear ; Female ; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology ; Gambling - psychology ; Games ; Humans ; Imagination ; Judgment ; Male ; Preferences ; Probability ; Probability Learning ; Psychological effects ; Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry ; Psychology. 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J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pendle, J. E. C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rowley, M. G.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Beck, S. R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>McColgan, K. L. T.</creatorcontrib><title>Guessing imagined and live chance events: Adults behave like children with live events</title><title>The British journal of psychology</title><addtitle>Br J Psychol</addtitle><description>An established finding is that adults prefer to guess before rather than after a chance event has happened. This is interpreted in terms of aversion to guessing when relatively incompetent: After throwing, the fall could be known. Adults (N=71, mean age 18;11, N=28, mean age 48;0) showed this preference with imagined die‐throwing as in the published studies. With live die‐throwing, children (N=64, aged 6 and 8 years; N=50, aged 5 and 6 years) and 15‐year‐olds (N=93, 46) showed the opposite preference, as did 17 adults. Seventeen‐year‐olds (N=82) were more likely to prefer to guess after throwing with live rather than imagined die‐throwing. Reliance on imagined situations in the literature on decision‐making under uncertainty ignores the possibility that adults imagine inaccurately how they would really feel: After a real die has been thrown, adults, like children, may feel there is less ambiguity about the outcome.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Adults</subject><subject>Behaviour</subject><subject>Behavioural psychology</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child development</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>Children</subject><subject>Choice Behavior</subject><subject>Culture</subject><subject>Decision Making</subject><subject>Developmental psychology</subject><subject>Experimental psychology</subject><subject>Fear</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</subject><subject>Gambling - psychology</subject><subject>Games</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Imagination</subject><subject>Judgment</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Preferences</subject><subject>Probability</subject><subject>Probability Learning</subject><subject>Psychological effects</subject><subject>Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry</subject><subject>Psychology. Psychophysiology</subject><subject>Self Efficacy</subject><subject>Social Perception</subject><subject>Sociological analysis</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Uncertainty</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>0007-1269</issn><issn>2044-8295</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2009</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>7QJ</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkc1v1DAQxS0EosuWOycUIQGntOOv2OZWKrp0qWgPfN0sJ5l03XqzJU5a-t_jKKsi9cCe5jC_90bzHiGvKBxQLvQhACjKCtC_uC40hSdkxkCIXDMjn5LZuM7T3uyRFzFeAVBqlHlO9qgBZYxkM_JjMWCMvr3M_Npd-hbrzLV1FvwtZtXKtRVmeIttHz9kR_UQ-piVuHJpGfz1SPhQd9hmd75fTaKJ3ifPGhcivtzOOfl-8unb8ef87Hxxenx0lldSCZ7TyqFiqlbaMQeO1azhwBVnzFWyLChtBNZSlCidE4WWTlPVlMIVUnEsG87n5P3ke9NtfqdPerv2scIQXIubIVrFBUjKkumcvPsvmRyF5obuBLliKVfBdoIMTPqkUAl88wi82gxdm3Kx1JgCmOEiQTBBVbeJscPG3nSpku7eUrBj2fZx2Unyeus7lGus_wm27Sbg7RZwsXKh6VKfPj5wjBoNgo635cTd-YD3Ow_bj8vzC07H9PNJ52OPfx50rru26W0l7c-vC7uEi5OlKJb2C_8LrTfNdQ</recordid><startdate>200911</startdate><enddate>200911</enddate><creator>Robinson, E. J.</creator><creator>Pendle, J. E. C.</creator><creator>Rowley, M. G.</creator><creator>Beck, S. R.</creator><creator>McColgan, K. L. T.</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><general>British Psychological Society</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QJ</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7TK</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>200911</creationdate><title>Guessing imagined and live chance events: Adults behave like children with live events</title><author>Robinson, E. J. ; Pendle, J. E. C. ; Rowley, M. G. ; Beck, S. R. ; McColgan, K. L. T.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c5743-1cae727d78a2a0a2d2f3037322ac5b611f4ed54be5aa4685a817fb4a6573ebf33</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2009</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Adults</topic><topic>Behaviour</topic><topic>Behavioural psychology</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Child development</topic><topic>Child, Preschool</topic><topic>Children</topic><topic>Choice Behavior</topic><topic>Culture</topic><topic>Decision Making</topic><topic>Developmental psychology</topic><topic>Experimental psychology</topic><topic>Fear</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</topic><topic>Gambling - psychology</topic><topic>Games</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Imagination</topic><topic>Judgment</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Preferences</topic><topic>Probability</topic><topic>Probability Learning</topic><topic>Psychological effects</topic><topic>Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry</topic><topic>Psychology. Psychophysiology</topic><topic>Self Efficacy</topic><topic>Social Perception</topic><topic>Sociological analysis</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Uncertainty</topic><topic>Young Adult</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Robinson, E. J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pendle, J. E. C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rowley, M. G.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Beck, S. R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>McColgan, K. L. 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J.</au><au>Pendle, J. E. C.</au><au>Rowley, M. G.</au><au>Beck, S. R.</au><au>McColgan, K. L. T.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Guessing imagined and live chance events: Adults behave like children with live events</atitle><jtitle>The British journal of psychology</jtitle><addtitle>Br J Psychol</addtitle><date>2009-11</date><risdate>2009</risdate><volume>100</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>645</spage><epage>659</epage><pages>645-659</pages><issn>0007-1269</issn><eissn>2044-8295</eissn><coden>BJSGAE</coden><abstract>An established finding is that adults prefer to guess before rather than after a chance event has happened. This is interpreted in terms of aversion to guessing when relatively incompetent: After throwing, the fall could be known. Adults (N=71, mean age 18;11, N=28, mean age 48;0) showed this preference with imagined die‐throwing as in the published studies. 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| subjects | Adolescent Adult Adults Behaviour Behavioural psychology Biological and medical sciences Child Child development Child, Preschool Children Choice Behavior Culture Decision Making Developmental psychology Experimental psychology Fear Female Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Gambling - psychology Games Humans Imagination Judgment Male Preferences Probability Probability Learning Psychological effects Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry Psychology. Psychophysiology Self Efficacy Social Perception Sociological analysis Studies Uncertainty Young Adult |
| title | Guessing imagined and live chance events: Adults behave like children with live events |
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