Predicting Future Intensive Care Demand in Australia
Background: Predicting future demand for intensive care is vital to planning the allocation of resources. Method: Mathematical modelling using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was applied to intensive care data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) C...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Critical care and resuscitation 2009-12, Vol.11 (4), p.257-260 |
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| container_title | Critical care and resuscitation |
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| creator | Corke, Charlie Leeuw, Evelyne de Lo, Sing K George, Carol |
| description | Background: Predicting future demand for intensive care is vital to planning the allocation of resources. Method: Mathematical modelling using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was applied to intensive care data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Core Database and population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to forecast future demand in Australian intensive care. Results: The model forecasts an increase in ICU demand of over 50% by 2020, with current total ICU bed-days (in 2007) of 471 358, predicted to increase to 643 160 by 2020. An increased rate of ICU use by patients older than 80 years was also noted, with the average bed-days per 10 000 population for this group increasing from 396 in 2006 to 741 in 2007. Conclusion: An increase in demand of the forecast magnitude could not be accommodated within current ICU capacity. Significant action will be required. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/S1441-2772(23)01284-X |
| format | Article |
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Method: Mathematical modelling using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was applied to intensive care data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Core Database and population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to forecast future demand in Australian intensive care. Results: The model forecasts an increase in ICU demand of over 50% by 2020, with current total ICU bed-days (in 2007) of 471 358, predicted to increase to 643 160 by 2020. An increased rate of ICU use by patients older than 80 years was also noted, with the average bed-days per 10 000 population for this group increasing from 396 in 2006 to 741 in 2007. Conclusion: An increase in demand of the forecast magnitude could not be accommodated within current ICU capacity. Significant action will be required.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1441-2772</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/S1441-2772(23)01284-X</identifier><identifier>PMID: 20001873</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Australia</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Australia ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Critically ill ; Evaluation ; Forecasting ; Hospital Bed Capacity ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Intensive care units ; Intensive Care Units - trends ; Medical care ; Medical care surveys ; Middle Aged ; Needs Assessment ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>Critical care and resuscitation, 2009-12, Vol.11 (4), p.257-260</ispartof><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c436t-f5befadaeff18dffae09be5f858e9c1eba9036156a7a3c7d0650a3df035a19623</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c436t-f5befadaeff18dffae09be5f858e9c1eba9036156a7a3c7d0650a3df035a19623</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>315,781,785,27926,27927</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20001873$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Corke, Charlie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Leeuw, Evelyne de</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lo, Sing K</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>George, Carol</creatorcontrib><title>Predicting Future Intensive Care Demand in Australia</title><title>Critical care and resuscitation</title><addtitle>Crit Care Resusc</addtitle><description>Background: Predicting future demand for intensive care is vital to planning the allocation of resources. Method: Mathematical modelling using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was applied to intensive care data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Core Database and population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to forecast future demand in Australian intensive care. Results: The model forecasts an increase in ICU demand of over 50% by 2020, with current total ICU bed-days (in 2007) of 471 358, predicted to increase to 643 160 by 2020. An increased rate of ICU use by patients older than 80 years was also noted, with the average bed-days per 10 000 population for this group increasing from 396 in 2006 to 741 in 2007. Conclusion: An increase in demand of the forecast magnitude could not be accommodated within current ICU capacity. Significant action will be required.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Australia</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>Critically ill</subject><subject>Evaluation</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Hospital Bed Capacity</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infant</subject><subject>Infant, Newborn</subject><subject>Intensive care units</subject><subject>Intensive Care Units - trends</subject><subject>Medical care</subject><subject>Medical care surveys</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Needs Assessment</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>1441-2772</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2009</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNo9kEtPwzAQhH0AUSj8BFBuwCHgRxwnx6pQqFQJJEDqzdok62KUR7EdJP496YOeVrszsyN9hFwyescoS-_fWJKwmCvFb7i4pYxnSbw8IqeH84icef9FKc-TVJ2QEaeUskyJU5K8OqxsGWy7imZ96B1G8zZg6-0PRlMY1gdsoK0i20aT3gcHtYVzcmyg9nixn2PyMXt8nz7Hi5en-XSyiMtEpCE2skADFaAxLKuMAaR5gdJkMsO8ZFhATkXKZAoKRKkqmkoKojJUSGB5ysWYXO_-rl333aMPurG-xLqGFrveayWEolme5INT7pyl67x3aPTa2Qbcr2ZUbxjpLSO9gaG50FtGejnkrvYNfdFgdUj9AxoMy53BNTbosqtrHGB1rf-C4LVHcOWntq3ptnrnVrrqrIbCb4qFGIoPYkYFZxmTuUil4kz8AUgRg38</recordid><startdate>20091201</startdate><enddate>20091201</enddate><creator>Corke, Charlie</creator><creator>Leeuw, Evelyne de</creator><creator>Lo, Sing K</creator><creator>George, Carol</creator><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20091201</creationdate><title>Predicting Future Intensive Care Demand in Australia</title><author>Corke, Charlie ; Leeuw, Evelyne de ; Lo, Sing K ; George, Carol</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c436t-f5befadaeff18dffae09be5f858e9c1eba9036156a7a3c7d0650a3df035a19623</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2009</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aged, 80 and over</topic><topic>Australia</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Child, Preschool</topic><topic>Critically ill</topic><topic>Evaluation</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>Hospital Bed Capacity</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infant</topic><topic>Infant, Newborn</topic><topic>Intensive care units</topic><topic>Intensive Care Units - trends</topic><topic>Medical care</topic><topic>Medical care surveys</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Needs Assessment</topic><topic>Young Adult</topic><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Corke, Charlie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Leeuw, Evelyne de</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lo, Sing K</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>George, Carol</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Critical care and resuscitation</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Corke, Charlie</au><au>Leeuw, Evelyne de</au><au>Lo, Sing K</au><au>George, Carol</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Predicting Future Intensive Care Demand in Australia</atitle><jtitle>Critical care and resuscitation</jtitle><addtitle>Crit Care Resusc</addtitle><date>2009-12-01</date><risdate>2009</risdate><volume>11</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>257</spage><epage>260</epage><pages>257-260</pages><issn>1441-2772</issn><abstract>Background: Predicting future demand for intensive care is vital to planning the allocation of resources. Method: Mathematical modelling using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was applied to intensive care data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Core Database and population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to forecast future demand in Australian intensive care. Results: The model forecasts an increase in ICU demand of over 50% by 2020, with current total ICU bed-days (in 2007) of 471 358, predicted to increase to 643 160 by 2020. An increased rate of ICU use by patients older than 80 years was also noted, with the average bed-days per 10 000 population for this group increasing from 396 in 2006 to 741 in 2007. Conclusion: An increase in demand of the forecast magnitude could not be accommodated within current ICU capacity. Significant action will be required.</abstract><cop>Australia</cop><pmid>20001873</pmid><doi>10.1016/S1441-2772(23)01284-X</doi><tpages>4</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| source | MEDLINE; Alma/SFX Local Collection; EZB Electronic Journals Library |
| subjects | Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Australia Child Child, Preschool Critically ill Evaluation Forecasting Hospital Bed Capacity Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Intensive care units Intensive Care Units - trends Medical care Medical care surveys Middle Aged Needs Assessment Young Adult |
| title | Predicting Future Intensive Care Demand in Australia |
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