Forecasting Southern California Earthquakes
Since 1978 and 1979, California has had a significantly higher frequency of moderate to large earthquakes than in the preceding 25 years. In the past such periods have also been associated with major destructive earthquakes, of magnitude 7 or greater, and the annual probability of occurrence of such...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 1982-09, Vol.217 (4565), p.1097-1104 |
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| container_issue | 4565 |
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| container_title | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) |
| container_volume | 217 |
| creator | Raleigh, C. B. Sieh, K. Sykes, L. R. Anderson, D. L. |
| description | Since 1978 and 1979, California has had a significantly higher frequency of moderate to large earthquakes than in the preceding 25 years. In the past such periods have also been associated with major destructive earthquakes, of magnitude 7 or greater, and the annual probability of occurrence of such an event is now 13 percent in California. The increase in seismicity is associated with a marked deviation in the pattern of strain accumulation, a correlation that is physically plausible. Although great earthquakes (magnitude greater than 7.5) are too infrequent to have clear associations with any pattern of seismicity that is now observed, the San Andreas fault in southern California has accumulated sufficient potential displacement since the last rupture in 1857 to generate a great earthquake along part or all of its length. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1126/science.217.4565.1097 |
| format | Article |
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Although great earthquakes (magnitude greater than 7.5) are too infrequent to have clear associations with any pattern of seismicity that is now observed, the San Andreas fault in southern California has accumulated sufficient potential displacement since the last rupture in 1857 to generate a great earthquake along part or all of its length.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0036-8075</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1095-9203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1126/science.217.4565.1097</identifier><identifier>PMID: 17740956</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: The American Association for the Advancement of Science</publisher><subject>CALIFORNIA ; Dormancy ; Earthquake damage ; Earthquake prediction ; EARTHQUAKES ; FEDERAL REGION IX ; FORECASTING ; Geology ; GEOSCIENCES ; Musical intervals ; NORTH AMERICA ; Potreros ; RISK ASSESSMENT ; Seismic activity ; SEISMIC EVENTS ; SEISMICITY ; Shear stress ; Swamps ; Tectonic plate interactions ; USA 580201 -- Geophysics-- Seismology & Tectonics-- (1980-1989)</subject><ispartof>Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 1982-09, Vol.217 (4565), p.1097-1104</ispartof><rights>Copyright 1982 The American Association for the Advancement of Science</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a475t-dee6f9b1e66ae6885251c2b1567cf0140b535787cb453e0b9f0b88b9c233e1733</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a475t-dee6f9b1e66ae6885251c2b1567cf0140b535787cb453e0b9f0b88b9c233e1733</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1689623$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/1689623$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,803,885,2884,2885,27924,27925,58017,58250</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17740956$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.osti.gov/biblio/6619941$$D View this record in Osti.gov$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Raleigh, C. 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| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0036-8075 |
| ispartof | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 1982-09, Vol.217 (4565), p.1097-1104 |
| issn | 0036-8075 1095-9203 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_733188377 |
| source | JSTOR Archive Collection A-Z Listing; American Association for the Advancement of Science |
| subjects | CALIFORNIA Dormancy Earthquake damage Earthquake prediction EARTHQUAKES FEDERAL REGION IX FORECASTING Geology GEOSCIENCES Musical intervals NORTH AMERICA Potreros RISK ASSESSMENT Seismic activity SEISMIC EVENTS SEISMICITY Shear stress Swamps Tectonic plate interactions USA 580201 -- Geophysics-- Seismology & Tectonics-- (1980-1989) |
| title | Forecasting Southern California Earthquakes |
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