Assessment of the Status of Measles Elimination from Reported Outbreaks: United States, 1997-1999
The status of measles elimination is best summarized by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R; maintaining R < 1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination. Previously described methods for estimating R from the sizes and durations of chains of measles transmission and the pro...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | The Journal of infectious diseases 2004-05, Vol.189 (Supplement_1), p.S36-S42 |
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| container_issue | Supplement_1 |
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| container_title | The Journal of infectious diseases |
| container_volume | 189 |
| creator | Gay, Nigel J. De Serres, Gaston Farrington, C. Paddy Redd, Susan B. Papania, Mark J. |
| description | The status of measles elimination is best summarized by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R; maintaining R < 1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination. Previously described methods for estimating R from the sizes and durations of chains of measles transmission and the proportion of cases imported were applied to the measles data reported for the United States in 1997-1999. These comprised 338 cases, forming 165 chains of transmission, of which 43 had >1 case. One hundred seven cases were classified as importations. All 3 methods suggested that R was in the range 0.6-0.7. Results were not sensitive to the minimum size and duration of outbreak considered (so long as single-case chains were excluded) or to exclusion of chains without a known imported source. These results demonstrate that susceptibility to measles was beneath the epidemic threshold and that endemic transmission was eliminated. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1086/377695 |
| format | Article |
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Paddy ; Redd, Susan B. ; Papania, Mark J.</creator><contributor>Orenstein, Walter A. ; Papania, Mark J.</contributor><creatorcontrib>Gay, Nigel J. ; De Serres, Gaston ; Farrington, C. Paddy ; Redd, Susan B. ; Papania, Mark J. ; Orenstein, Walter A. ; Papania, Mark J.</creatorcontrib><description>The status of measles elimination is best summarized by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R; maintaining R < 1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination. Previously described methods for estimating R from the sizes and durations of chains of measles transmission and the proportion of cases imported were applied to the measles data reported for the United States in 1997-1999. These comprised 338 cases, forming 165 chains of transmission, of which 43 had >1 case. One hundred seven cases were classified as importations. All 3 methods suggested that R was in the range 0.6-0.7. Results were not sensitive to the minimum size and duration of outbreak considered (so long as single-case chains were excluded) or to exclusion of chains without a known imported source. 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Paddy</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Redd, Susan B.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Papania, Mark J.</creatorcontrib><title>Assessment of the Status of Measles Elimination from Reported Outbreaks: United States, 1997-1999</title><title>The Journal of infectious diseases</title><addtitle>J Infect Dis</addtitle><description>The status of measles elimination is best summarized by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R; maintaining R < 1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination. Previously described methods for estimating R from the sizes and durations of chains of measles transmission and the proportion of cases imported were applied to the measles data reported for the United States in 1997-1999. These comprised 338 cases, forming 165 chains of transmission, of which 43 had >1 case. One hundred seven cases were classified as importations. All 3 methods suggested that R was in the range 0.6-0.7. Results were not sensitive to the minimum size and duration of outbreak considered (so long as single-case chains were excluded) or to exclusion of chains without a known imported source. These results demonstrate that susceptibility to measles was beneath the epidemic threshold and that endemic transmission was eliminated.</description><subject>Confidence interval</subject><subject>Data transmission</subject><subject>Disease eradication</subject><subject>Disease Notification</subject><subject>Disease Outbreaks</subject><subject>Disease Susceptibility</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Endemic Diseases</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Estimation methods</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Introduction</subject><subject>Measles</subject><subject>Measles - epidemiology</subject><subject>Measles - immunology</subject><subject>Measles - prevention & control</subject><subject>Measles - transmission</subject><subject>Measles virus</subject><subject>Models, Biological</subject><subject>Surveillance</subject><subject>Travel</subject><subject>United States</subject><subject>Vaccination</subject><issn>0022-1899</issn><issn>1537-6613</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2004</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkU1r20AQhpfQUDtO8w9alh5yipKd_d7egskXJATS5izW0orKlbTuzuqQfx8Zmxp6yWWGmXnmhZeXkDNgl8CsvhLGaKeOyByUMIXWID6ROWOcF2Cdm5ETxDVjTAptPpMZKGCaWTMn_hoxIPZhyDQ2NP8O9Gf2ecTt9BQ8dgHpTdf27eBzGwfapNjTl7CJKYeaPo95lYL_gz_o69BuN9vvgBcUnDPFVNwpOW58h-HLvi_I6-3Nr-V98fh897C8fiwqYU0udN2sQNdcaidtBbZxyoOS2nrlKsW9AllDJQwTk0OvuVVm5TjjUkIQgkuxIOc73U2Kf8eAuexbrELX-SHEEUsDVnMA-BAE4xTn0k3g9__AdRzTMJkoOReOOdDioFaliJhCU25S2_v0VgIrt9GUu2gm8NtebVz1oT5g-ywm4OsOWGOO6d9dMGaUFUy8A_mRjVQ</recordid><startdate>20040501</startdate><enddate>20040501</enddate><creator>Gay, Nigel J.</creator><creator>De Serres, Gaston</creator><creator>Farrington, C. 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| issn | 0022-1899 1537-6613 |
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| source | MEDLINE; Jstor Complete Legacy; Oxford University Press Journals All Titles (1996-Current); Alma/SFX Local Collection |
| subjects | Confidence interval Data transmission Disease eradication Disease Notification Disease Outbreaks Disease Susceptibility Disease transmission Endemic Diseases Epidemiology Estimation methods Humans Introduction Measles Measles - epidemiology Measles - immunology Measles - prevention & control Measles - transmission Measles virus Models, Biological Surveillance Travel United States Vaccination |
| title | Assessment of the Status of Measles Elimination from Reported Outbreaks: United States, 1997-1999 |
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