Comparison of P-POSSUM risk-adjusted mortality rates after surgery between patients in the USA and the UK

Background: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) criteria have been used to assess surgical risk in patients in the UK. The aim was to determine how applicable these criteria are to patients undergoing surgery in the USA. Methods: Two...

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Veröffentlicht in:British journal of surgery 2003-12, Vol.90 (12), p.1593-1598
Hauptverfasser: Bennett-Guerrero, E., Hyam, J. A., Shaefi, S., Prytherch, D. R., Sutton, G. L., Weaver, P. C., Mythen, M. G., Grocott, M. P., Parides, M. K.
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container_end_page 1598
container_issue 12
container_start_page 1593
container_title British journal of surgery
container_volume 90
creator Bennett-Guerrero, E.
Hyam, J. A.
Shaefi, S.
Prytherch, D. R.
Sutton, G. L.
Weaver, P. C.
Mythen, M. G.
Grocott, M. P.
Parides, M. K.
description Background: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) criteria have been used to assess surgical risk in patients in the UK. The aim was to determine how applicable these criteria are to patients undergoing surgery in the USA. Methods: Two cohorts of patients undergoing major non‐cardiac surgery were followed prospectively in the USA (n = 1056) and the UK (n = 1539). Each patient was assigned a risk score for preoperative physiological status and operative severity using the established POSSUM criteria. Death in hospital was the primary outcome measure. For each patient a predicted risk of death was calculated from Portsmouth POSSUM (P‐POSSUM) methodology using an established equation. The relationships between predicted and observed mortality rates in each cohort were investigated by means of multivariate logistic regression. Results: Within each cohort, an increase in risk estimated by P‐POSSUM predicted an increase in observed mortality rate (P < 0·001). For any given risk level, however, mortality rates were significantly higher in the UK cohort than in the US cohort (odds ratio 4·50 (95 per cent confidence interval 2·81 to 7·19); Z = 6·25, P < 0·001). Conclusion: An increase in predicted risk, based on the P‐POSSUM methodology, was associated with a higher mortality rate in patients from both countries. However, risk‐adjusted mortality rates following major surgery were four times higher in the UK cohort. These marked differences warrant validation in a larger number of centres. Copyright © 2003 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. May shock surgeons in the UK
doi_str_mv 10.1002/bjs.4347
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A. ; Shaefi, S. ; Prytherch, D. R. ; Sutton, G. L. ; Weaver, P. C. ; Mythen, M. G. ; Grocott, M. P. ; Parides, M. K.</creator><creatorcontrib>Bennett-Guerrero, E. ; Hyam, J. A. ; Shaefi, S. ; Prytherch, D. R. ; Sutton, G. L. ; Weaver, P. C. ; Mythen, M. G. ; Grocott, M. P. ; Parides, M. K.</creatorcontrib><description>Background: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) criteria have been used to assess surgical risk in patients in the UK. The aim was to determine how applicable these criteria are to patients undergoing surgery in the USA. Methods: Two cohorts of patients undergoing major non‐cardiac surgery were followed prospectively in the USA (n = 1056) and the UK (n = 1539). Each patient was assigned a risk score for preoperative physiological status and operative severity using the established POSSUM criteria. Death in hospital was the primary outcome measure. For each patient a predicted risk of death was calculated from Portsmouth POSSUM (P‐POSSUM) methodology using an established equation. The relationships between predicted and observed mortality rates in each cohort were investigated by means of multivariate logistic regression. Results: Within each cohort, an increase in risk estimated by P‐POSSUM predicted an increase in observed mortality rate (P &lt; 0·001). For any given risk level, however, mortality rates were significantly higher in the UK cohort than in the US cohort (odds ratio 4·50 (95 per cent confidence interval 2·81 to 7·19); Z = 6·25, P &lt; 0·001). Conclusion: An increase in predicted risk, based on the P‐POSSUM methodology, was associated with a higher mortality rate in patients from both countries. However, risk‐adjusted mortality rates following major surgery were four times higher in the UK cohort. These marked differences warrant validation in a larger number of centres. 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Each patient was assigned a risk score for preoperative physiological status and operative severity using the established POSSUM criteria. Death in hospital was the primary outcome measure. For each patient a predicted risk of death was calculated from Portsmouth POSSUM (P‐POSSUM) methodology using an established equation. The relationships between predicted and observed mortality rates in each cohort were investigated by means of multivariate logistic regression. Results: Within each cohort, an increase in risk estimated by P‐POSSUM predicted an increase in observed mortality rate (P &lt; 0·001). For any given risk level, however, mortality rates were significantly higher in the UK cohort than in the US cohort (odds ratio 4·50 (95 per cent confidence interval 2·81 to 7·19); Z = 6·25, P &lt; 0·001). Conclusion: An increase in predicted risk, based on the P‐POSSUM methodology, was associated with a higher mortality rate in patients from both countries. However, risk‐adjusted mortality rates following major surgery were four times higher in the UK cohort. These marked differences warrant validation in a larger number of centres. Copyright © 2003 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd. May shock surgeons in the UK</description><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Cohort Studies</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Medical sciences</subject><subject>Miscellaneous</subject><subject>Postoperative Complications - mortality</subject><subject>Predictive Value of Tests</subject><subject>Regression Analysis</subject><subject>Risk Assessment</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>Severity of Illness Index</subject><subject>Surgery (general aspects). Transplantations, organ and tissue grafts. 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K.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Comparison of P-POSSUM risk-adjusted mortality rates after surgery between patients in the USA and the UK</atitle><jtitle>British journal of surgery</jtitle><addtitle>Br J Surg</addtitle><date>2003-12</date><risdate>2003</risdate><volume>90</volume><issue>12</issue><spage>1593</spage><epage>1598</epage><pages>1593-1598</pages><issn>0007-1323</issn><eissn>1365-2168</eissn><coden>BJSUAM</coden><abstract>Background: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) criteria have been used to assess surgical risk in patients in the UK. The aim was to determine how applicable these criteria are to patients undergoing surgery in the USA. Methods: Two cohorts of patients undergoing major non‐cardiac surgery were followed prospectively in the USA (n = 1056) and the UK (n = 1539). 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source Wiley-Blackwell Journals; MEDLINE; Oxford Journals - Connect here FIRST to enable access
subjects Biological and medical sciences
Cohort Studies
Humans
Medical sciences
Miscellaneous
Postoperative Complications - mortality
Predictive Value of Tests
Regression Analysis
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Severity of Illness Index
Surgery (general aspects). Transplantations, organ and tissue grafts. Graft diseases
Survival Analysis
Survival Rate
United Kingdom - epidemiology
United States - epidemiology
title Comparison of P-POSSUM risk-adjusted mortality rates after surgery between patients in the USA and the UK
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