A Multisite Comparison of Actuarial Risk Instruments for Sex Offenders
Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR], and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders ( N = 396). Al...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Psychological assessment 2003-09, Vol.15 (3), p.413-425 |
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| creator | Harris, Grant T Rice, Marnie E Quinsey, Vernon L Lalumière, Martin L Boer, Douglas Lang, Carol |
| description | Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR], and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (
N
= 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to.84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1037/1040-3590.15.3.413 |
| format | Article |
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N
= 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to.84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1040-3590</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1939-134X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1037/1040-3590.15.3.413</identifier><identifier>PMID: 14593842</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: American Psychological Association</publisher><subject><![CDATA[Actuarial Analysis - statistics & numerical data ; Adult ; Child ; Child Abuse, Sexual - psychology ; Child Abuse, Sexual - statistics & numerical data ; Human ; Humans ; Male ; Prediction ; Predictions ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Psychological Assessment ; Psychological Tests - statistics & numerical data ; Rape - psychology ; Rape - statistics & numerical data ; Recidivism ; Risk assessment ; Risk Assessment - methods ; ROC Curve ; Sex offenders ; Sex Offenses ; Sex Offenses - psychology ; Sex Offenses - statistics & numerical data ; Survival Analysis ; Time Factors ; Violence ; Violence - psychology ; Violence - statistics & numerical data ; Violent crime]]></subject><ispartof>Psychological assessment, 2003-09, Vol.15 (3), p.413-425</ispartof><rights>2003 American Psychological Association</rights><rights>Copyright American Psychological Association Sep 2003</rights><rights>2003, American Psychological Association</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a382t-fab0b737157fa371c4e177be73e821d224edd2a7aec52785812038363d83baf33</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a382t-fab0b737157fa371c4e177be73e821d224edd2a7aec52785812038363d83baf33</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14593842$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Harris, Grant T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rice, Marnie E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Quinsey, Vernon L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lalumière, Martin L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boer, Douglas</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lang, Carol</creatorcontrib><title>A Multisite Comparison of Actuarial Risk Instruments for Sex Offenders</title><title>Psychological assessment</title><addtitle>Psychol Assess</addtitle><description>Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR], and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (
N
= 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to.84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group.</description><subject>Actuarial Analysis - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child Abuse, Sexual - psychology</subject><subject>Child Abuse, Sexual - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Human</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Prediction</subject><subject>Predictions</subject><subject>Predictive Value of Tests</subject><subject>Psychological Assessment</subject><subject>Psychological Tests - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Rape - psychology</subject><subject>Rape - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Recidivism</subject><subject>Risk assessment</subject><subject>Risk Assessment - methods</subject><subject>ROC Curve</subject><subject>Sex offenders</subject><subject>Sex Offenses</subject><subject>Sex Offenses - psychology</subject><subject>Sex Offenses - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Survival Analysis</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>Violence</subject><subject>Violence - psychology</subject><subject>Violence - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Violent crime</subject><issn>1040-3590</issn><issn>1939-134X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2003</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kU1rHDEMhk1oaT7aP5BDMaX0Nlvbstee47IkTSAh0A_ozXhmZJhkvmrNQPLv62U3BHLISRI8ehGPGDuXYiUF2O9SaFGAKfNoVrDSEo7YiSyhLCTov-9y_wwcs1OieyGkBmc-sGOpTQlOqxN2ueG3Sze31M7It2M_hdTSOPAx8k09L3kKHf_Z0gO_HmhOS4_DTDyOif_CR34XIw4NJvrI3sfQEX461DP25_Li9_aquLn7cb3d3BQBnJqLGCpRWbDS2BhyqTVKayu0gE7JRimNTaOCDVgbZZ1xUglwsIbGQRUiwBn7ts-d0vhvQZp931KNXRcGHBfyVgLYUq4z-OUVeD8uaci3-fXOAris8A1IiVKDsWuVIbWH6jQSJYx-Sm0f0pOXwu_-4Hea_U6zl8aDz3_IS58PyUvVY_OychCfga97IEzBT_RUhzS3dYfkp0AvOf8BU7WNOg</recordid><startdate>20030901</startdate><enddate>20030901</enddate><creator>Harris, Grant T</creator><creator>Rice, Marnie E</creator><creator>Quinsey, Vernon L</creator><creator>Lalumière, Martin L</creator><creator>Boer, Douglas</creator><creator>Lang, Carol</creator><general>American Psychological Association</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7RZ</scope><scope>PSYQQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20030901</creationdate><title>A Multisite Comparison of Actuarial Risk Instruments for Sex Offenders</title><author>Harris, Grant T ; Rice, Marnie E ; Quinsey, Vernon L ; Lalumière, Martin L ; Boer, Douglas ; Lang, Carol</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a382t-fab0b737157fa371c4e177be73e821d224edd2a7aec52785812038363d83baf33</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2003</creationdate><topic>Actuarial Analysis - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Child Abuse, Sexual - psychology</topic><topic>Child Abuse, Sexual - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Human</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Prediction</topic><topic>Predictions</topic><topic>Predictive Value of Tests</topic><topic>Psychological Assessment</topic><topic>Psychological Tests - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Rape - psychology</topic><topic>Rape - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Recidivism</topic><topic>Risk assessment</topic><topic>Risk Assessment - methods</topic><topic>ROC Curve</topic><topic>Sex offenders</topic><topic>Sex Offenses</topic><topic>Sex Offenses - psychology</topic><topic>Sex Offenses - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Survival Analysis</topic><topic>Time Factors</topic><topic>Violence</topic><topic>Violence - psychology</topic><topic>Violence - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Violent crime</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Harris, Grant T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rice, Marnie E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Quinsey, Vernon L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lalumière, Martin L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boer, Douglas</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lang, Carol</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Access via APA PsycArticles® (ProQuest)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Psychology</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Psychological assessment</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Harris, Grant T</au><au>Rice, Marnie E</au><au>Quinsey, Vernon L</au><au>Lalumière, Martin L</au><au>Boer, Douglas</au><au>Lang, Carol</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>A Multisite Comparison of Actuarial Risk Instruments for Sex Offenders</atitle><jtitle>Psychological assessment</jtitle><addtitle>Psychol Assess</addtitle><date>2003-09-01</date><risdate>2003</risdate><volume>15</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>413</spage><epage>425</epage><pages>413-425</pages><issn>1040-3590</issn><eissn>1939-134X</eissn><abstract>Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR], and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (
N
= 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to.84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>American Psychological Association</pub><pmid>14593842</pmid><doi>10.1037/1040-3590.15.3.413</doi><tpages>13</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Actuarial Analysis - statistics & numerical data Adult Child Child Abuse, Sexual - psychology Child Abuse, Sexual - statistics & numerical data Human Humans Male Prediction Predictions Predictive Value of Tests Psychological Assessment Psychological Tests - statistics & numerical data Rape - psychology Rape - statistics & numerical data Recidivism Risk assessment Risk Assessment - methods ROC Curve Sex offenders Sex Offenses Sex Offenses - psychology Sex Offenses - statistics & numerical data Survival Analysis Time Factors Violence Violence - psychology Violence - statistics & numerical data Violent crime |
| title | A Multisite Comparison of Actuarial Risk Instruments for Sex Offenders |
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