Validation of three myocardial jeopardy scores in a population-based cardiac catheterization cohort

Background The Jeopardy Score from Duke University and the Myocardial Jeopardy Index from the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation (BARI) have been validated but never applied to a large unselected cohort. We assessed the prognostic value of these existing jeopardy scores, along with that of a new Lesion Score developed for the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcome Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease (APPROACH), a clinical data collection initiative capturing all patients undergoing cardiac catheterization in the province of Alberta. Methods The predictive value of these three scores were compared in a cohort of >20,000 patients (9922 treated medically, 6334 treated with percutaneous intervention, and 3811 treated with bypass surgery). Scores were considered individually in logistic regression models for their ability to predict outcome and then added to models containing sociodemographic data, comorbidities, ejection fraction, indication for procedure, and descriptors of coronary anatomy. Results All scores were found to be predictive of 1-year mortality, especially when patients are treated medically or with percutaneous intervention. In these patients, the APPROACH Lesion Score performed slightly better than the other jeopardy scores. The Duke Jeopardy Score was most predictive in those patients undergoing coronary bypass surgery. Conclusions Myocardial jeopardy scores provide independent prognostic information for patients with ischemic heart disease, especially if those patients are treated medically or with percutaneous intervention. These scores represent potentially valuable tools in cardiovascular outcome studies. The APPROACH Lesion Score may perform slightly better than previously developed jeopardy scores. (Am Heart J 2001;142:254-61.)