Accuracy of general practitioner's prognosis of the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety
A prognosis serves important functions for the management of common mental disorders in primary care. To establish the accuracy of the general practitioner's (GP) prognosis. The agreement between GP prognosis and observed course was determined for 138 cases of ICD-10 depression and 65 of genera...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | British journal of psychiatry 2001-01, Vol.178 (1), p.18-22 |
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| container_title | British journal of psychiatry |
| container_volume | 178 |
| creator | Van Den Brink, Rob H. S. Ormel, Johan Van Der Meer, Klaas Tiemens, Bea G. Van Os, Titus W. D. P. Smit, Annet Jenner, Jack A. |
| description | A prognosis serves important functions for the management of common mental disorders in primary care.
To establish the accuracy of the general practitioner's (GP) prognosis.
The agreement between GP prognosis and observed course was determined for 138 cases of ICD-10 depression and 65 of generalised anxiety disorder, identified among consecutive attenders of 18 GPs.
Modest agreement between GP prognosis and course was found, both for depression (kappa=0.21) and generalised anxiety (kappa=0.11). Better agreement (kappa=0.45 for depression, and kappa=0.33 for generalised anxiety) was observed between the course and predictions from a statistical model based on information potentially available to the GP at the time the prognosis was made. This model assesses attainable performance for GPs.
General practitioners do a fair job in predicting the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety. Even so, their performance falls significantly short of attainable performance. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1192/bjp.178.1.18 |
| format | Article |
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To establish the accuracy of the general practitioner's (GP) prognosis.
The agreement between GP prognosis and observed course was determined for 138 cases of ICD-10 depression and 65 of generalised anxiety disorder, identified among consecutive attenders of 18 GPs.
Modest agreement between GP prognosis and course was found, both for depression (kappa=0.21) and generalised anxiety (kappa=0.11). Better agreement (kappa=0.45 for depression, and kappa=0.33 for generalised anxiety) was observed between the course and predictions from a statistical model based on information potentially available to the GP at the time the prognosis was made. This model assesses attainable performance for GPs.
General practitioners do a fair job in predicting the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety. Even so, their performance falls significantly short of attainable performance.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0007-1250</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1472-1465</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1192/bjp.178.1.18</identifier><identifier>PMID: 11136205</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press</publisher><subject>Accuracy ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Agreements ; Anxiety ; Anxiety Disorders - rehabilitation ; Bias ; Depressive Disorder - rehabilitation ; Falls ; Family physicians ; Family Practice - standards ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Mathematical models ; Medical prognosis ; Mental depression ; Mental disorders ; Mental health ; Middle Aged ; Netherlands ; Patients ; Primary care ; Prognosis ; Psychiatry ; Sensitivity and Specificity</subject><ispartof>British journal of psychiatry, 2001-01, Vol.178 (1), p.18-22</ispartof><rights>Copyright © 2001 The Royal College of Psychiatrists</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c417t-61e73dd7b22aaffe56de6b2abf181a45fefcd1236fe49af5a6269b46233ebd323</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c417t-61e73dd7b22aaffe56de6b2abf181a45fefcd1236fe49af5a6269b46233ebd323</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0007125000227840/type/journal_article$$EHTML$$P50$$Gcambridge$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>164,314,776,780,12825,27901,27902,30976,55603</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11136205$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Van Den Brink, Rob H. S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ormel, Johan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Van Der Meer, Klaas</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tiemens, Bea G.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Van Os, Titus W. D. P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Smit, Annet</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jenner, Jack A.</creatorcontrib><title>Accuracy of general practitioner's prognosis of the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety</title><title>British journal of psychiatry</title><addtitle>Br J Psychiatry</addtitle><description>A prognosis serves important functions for the management of common mental disorders in primary care.
To establish the accuracy of the general practitioner's (GP) prognosis.
The agreement between GP prognosis and observed course was determined for 138 cases of ICD-10 depression and 65 of generalised anxiety disorder, identified among consecutive attenders of 18 GPs.
Modest agreement between GP prognosis and course was found, both for depression (kappa=0.21) and generalised anxiety (kappa=0.11). Better agreement (kappa=0.45 for depression, and kappa=0.33 for generalised anxiety) was observed between the course and predictions from a statistical model based on information potentially available to the GP at the time the prognosis was made. This model assesses attainable performance for GPs.
General practitioners do a fair job in predicting the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety. Even so, their performance falls significantly short of attainable performance.</description><subject>Accuracy</subject><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Agreements</subject><subject>Anxiety</subject><subject>Anxiety Disorders - rehabilitation</subject><subject>Bias</subject><subject>Depressive Disorder - rehabilitation</subject><subject>Falls</subject><subject>Family physicians</subject><subject>Family Practice - standards</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Medical prognosis</subject><subject>Mental depression</subject><subject>Mental disorders</subject><subject>Mental health</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Netherlands</subject><subject>Patients</subject><subject>Primary care</subject><subject>Prognosis</subject><subject>Psychiatry</subject><subject>Sensitivity and Specificity</subject><issn>0007-1250</issn><issn>1472-1465</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2001</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>7QJ</sourceid><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNptkM2LFDEQxYMo7uzqzbM0CO7FblP57Dkui1-w4EXPIZ1UejLMdLdJN9r_vRlmZEU8hVf88urVI-QV0AZgy953-6kB3TbQQPuEbEBoVoNQ8inZUEp1DUzSK3Kd875ILph-Tq4AgCtG5Yb0d84tybq1GkPV44DJHqqpDOY4x7HI21zk2A9jjvnEzDusoF7RpsqNS8p4GnqcEuZcPlR28H98YkZf9K-I8_qCPAv2kPHl5b0h3z9--Hb_uX74-unL_d1D7QTouVaAmnuvO8asDQGl8qg6ZrsALVghAwbngXEVUGxtkFYxte2EYpxj5znjN-Tt2beE_rFgns0xZoeHgx1wXLLRVLaCKlHAN_-A-3LOULIZxkHKFrQ-2b07Uy6NOScMZkrxaNNqgJpT_abUb0r9Bgy0BX99MV26I_pH-NJ3AaozsIv97mdMaJKb8up2f3s0l5X22KXoe3xM9t-lvwFXKpwk</recordid><startdate>200101</startdate><enddate>200101</enddate><creator>Van Den Brink, Rob H. 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S. ; Ormel, Johan ; Van Der Meer, Klaas ; Tiemens, Bea G. ; Van Os, Titus W. D. 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S.</au><au>Ormel, Johan</au><au>Van Der Meer, Klaas</au><au>Tiemens, Bea G.</au><au>Van Os, Titus W. D. P.</au><au>Smit, Annet</au><au>Jenner, Jack A.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Accuracy of general practitioner's prognosis of the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety</atitle><jtitle>British journal of psychiatry</jtitle><addtitle>Br J Psychiatry</addtitle><date>2001-01</date><risdate>2001</risdate><volume>178</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>18</spage><epage>22</epage><pages>18-22</pages><issn>0007-1250</issn><eissn>1472-1465</eissn><abstract>A prognosis serves important functions for the management of common mental disorders in primary care.
To establish the accuracy of the general practitioner's (GP) prognosis.
The agreement between GP prognosis and observed course was determined for 138 cases of ICD-10 depression and 65 of generalised anxiety disorder, identified among consecutive attenders of 18 GPs.
Modest agreement between GP prognosis and course was found, both for depression (kappa=0.21) and generalised anxiety (kappa=0.11). Better agreement (kappa=0.45 for depression, and kappa=0.33 for generalised anxiety) was observed between the course and predictions from a statistical model based on information potentially available to the GP at the time the prognosis was made. This model assesses attainable performance for GPs.
General practitioners do a fair job in predicting the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety. Even so, their performance falls significantly short of attainable performance.</abstract><cop>Cambridge, UK</cop><pub>Cambridge University Press</pub><pmid>11136205</pmid><doi>10.1192/bjp.178.1.18</doi><tpages>5</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Accuracy Adolescent Adult Aged Agreements Anxiety Anxiety Disorders - rehabilitation Bias Depressive Disorder - rehabilitation Falls Family physicians Family Practice - standards Female Humans Male Mathematical models Medical prognosis Mental depression Mental disorders Mental health Middle Aged Netherlands Patients Primary care Prognosis Psychiatry Sensitivity and Specificity |
| title | Accuracy of general practitioner's prognosis of the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety |
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