Serum LDL levels are a major prognostic factor for arteriovenous fistula thrombosis (AVFT) in hemodialysis patients

Arteriovenous fistula thrombosis (AVFT) is still a common cause of morbidity in patients undergoing regular hemodialysis (HD). Many factors have been found to induce AVFT. Some of those factors are local and others are systemic ones. In this study, we evaluated some local and systemic factors simultaneously, to predict the most potent risk factor for AVFT in HD patients. One hundred and eighteen patients aged 20-80 yrs with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were evaluated prospectively for a period of 14 months. First, anticardiolipin antibodies (ACLA), TG, cholesterol, low density lipoprotein (LDL) and high density lipoprotein (HDL) were analyzed by conventional methods. Other basic data were accessed from patients medical records. All fistulas were evaluated clinically as patent at the start of this study. Patients were followed-up for any evidence of AVFT within 14 months. Finally, all factors (diabetes, hypertension, presence of ACLA, ultrafiltration >or=3 L, age, gender, weight, hypotension during dialysis, fistula site, epoetin alpha usage, TG, HDL, LDL and total cholesterol) were analyzed in a stepwise regression analysis. Eighteen episodes of AVFT documented with Doppler sonography occurred in 17 patients (15.3%). Regression analysis showed only LDL values were the AVFT predictor in our patients (p=0.002, beta-coefficient=0.3). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significantly lower AVF patency time in patients with LDL >130 mg/dl than those with LDL